Argument147【0706G－CRUSADE小组】第1次作业

rose_07UID: 2276843

Argument147(416)

1.       there is no cause-and-effect relationship between players’ preference and the sales of Whirlwind video games.
2.       although player prefer games requiring the most up-to-date computers, there is possibility that they can not afford such computers. Thus, the sales of Whirlwind products are still low.
3.    evidence that people 10 to 25 who are likely to play video games will buy Whirlwind video games is unavailable.

The arguer asserts that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To justify the assertion, the arguer cites a recent survey suggesting that Whirlwind has just introduced what those video-game players prefers. Moreover, the arguer assumes that the age-group, 10 to 25, most likely to play video games will buy the Whirlwind products. This argument suffers from several critical flaws.

First, the assertion is based on a suspiscious survey whose methodology might be problematic. We are not informed whether the survey required the respondents choose their preference of video games between alternatives. If it did, the results might distort the players' preferences by lacking some features  which the players concern more. If so,the survey amounts to poor advice for us.

Secondly, there is no cause-and-effect relationship between video-game players' preference and the future increase sales of Whirlwind video games. No evidence is offered that the players are willing to buy those video games with lifelike pictures in spite of their favors. Even if they plan to buy new video games, perhaps there are still alternative choices for them from other video game companies. Since the arguer failed to ruling out those possibilities, the prediction of the increase sales is still open to doubt.

Furthermore, evidence is unavailable that those most up-to-date computers are affordable for those players who decide to buy the new games. It is common sense that the most up-to-date computers always sell at high price. Thus unless the arguer proves that the players who will buy Whirlwind games can afford the most up-to-date computers, the dramatical increase is unconvincing.

Finally, the arguer unfairly assumes that launching advertising campaign to young people at the age of most likely playing video games will lead to the promotion of Whirlwind sales. The arguer fails to establish relationship between people's interests and the sales of products. People who are most likely to play video games may scant enought money or the buying decision to become the potential video games buyers. Given that the young people are able to buy these games, it is entirely possible that they choose from other companies' products.

In conclusion, the prediction lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not land strong support to what the arguer maintains. I would suspend my judgment until the arguer can provide concrete evidence that player are in favor of Whirlwind video games and quite willing to buy their products even facing various other choices.


[ 本帖最后由 rose_07 于 2007-2-14 17:20 编辑 ]

yyyfffUID: 169234

Argument147(416)

The arguer asserts that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To justify the assertion, the arguer cites a recent survey suggesting that Whirlwind has just introduced what those video-game players prefers. Moreover, the arguer assumes that the age-group, 10 to 25, most likely to play video games will buy the Whirlwind products. This argument suffers from several critical flaws.

First, the assertion is based on a suspiscious [suspicious] survey whose [??我也不清楚这个引导词是否有问题，总觉得看着有点不舒服] methodology might be problematic. We are not informed whether the survey required the respondents choose their preference of video games between alternatives. If it did, the results might distort the players' preferences by lacking some features which the players concern more. If so, the survey amounts to poor advice for us. [对suspicious survey攻击得还不够，样本的大小问题；分布问题，是不是完全代表了玩家都可以考虑，以充实suspicious这一点的内容]

Secondly, there is no cause-and-effect relationship between video-game players' preference and the future increase sales of Whirlwind video games. No evidence is offered that the players are willing to buy those video games with lifelike pictures in spite of their favors. Even if they plan to buy new video games, perhaps there are still alternative choices for them from other video game companies. [有了alternative choices也不一定就不会增加Whirlwind 的sales吧？是否可以换个角度说明这个问题，如从severe competion和从不同company提供游戏的price等角度来说，这样会不会比从玩家还有其他的选择这样的角度来说更加有直接的说服力] Since the arguer failed to ruling out those possibilities, the prediction of the increase sales is still open to doubt.

Furthermore, evidence is unavailable that those most up-to-date computers are affordable for those players who decide to buy the new games. It is common sense that the most up-to-date computers always sell at high price. Thus unless the arguer proves that the players who will buy Whirlwind games can afford the most up-to-date computers, the dramatical increase is unconvincing.

Finally, the arguer unfairly assumes that launching advertising campaign to young people at the age of most likely playing video games will lead to the promotion of Whirlwind sales. [这段是写adertisement 与sales的关系还是people’s interests与sales的关系？主题句和后面的说明似乎有不一致的地方。要么直接讨论广告不一定能促进sales；要么就直接写玩家有interest，但也不一定会买游戏吧] The arguer fails to establish relationship between people's interests and the sales of products. People who are most likely to play video games may scant enough [enough] money or the buying decision to become the potential video games buyers. Given that the young people are able to buy these games, it is entirely possible that they choose from other companies' products.

In conclusion, the prediction lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not land strong support to what the arguer maintains. I would suspend my judgment until the arguer can provide concrete evidence that player are in favor of Whirlwind video games and quite willing to buy their products even facing various other choices.
简评：语言句子都很好，从楼主这篇和这次的issue里学了不少句子啊。开篇结尾也都程式化了，应该开篇和结尾都写的很快没有用太多的时间吧，不错。不过中间分析段落 部分论点攻击得不够全面；部分段中心句和后面的分析贴得不太紧。以后准备写文章前多想想，全面的思考吧。

rose_07UID: 2276843

嗯,对于论证的思路,实在是头痛啊!!!
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