argument35 请指教

鱼的宝贝UID: 150861

35 The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
“Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 20 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months.”

In this argument, the arguer concludes that the sales of Whirlwind games are likely to increase dramatically in several months. To support his conclusion, the arguer provide a survey in which the players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics which need the most up to date computers. In addition, the arguer cites that Whirlwind has introduced some such games with an extensive advertising directed to 20 to 25 years old who are most likely to play video games. The conclusion seems reasonable from the appearance, while it suffers from several critical fallacious after careful examination.

First, in order to clarify the conclusion, the arguer gives a survey which suggests that the most popular game is the lifelike graphics. Since the arguer wants to get a general conclusion, the sample should be sufficient enough to represent all players. But from this survey, we could find no clue on this aspect. On the other hand, the sample should be based on the random sampling in which the readers could get a credible result. For example, maybe the players who prefer lifelike graphics have the most up-to date computers, but how about the others? This simple survey gives several doubts to readers, for example, Players from different places have different favors on games, is the survey taken from one region without considering others? Maybe the arguer’s sample is too simple and narrow to elucidate all the players.

Secondly, the arguer cites that Whirlwind has introduced such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at players 20 to 25 years old, which is not convincing to conclude that the company would earn money on this way. Even if the players favor games that provide lifelike graphics, which is not true as proved before, there is no evidence to show that plays that are most likely to play games are 20 to 25 years old. Some evidence show that players are younger and younger, some of them are teenagers or even younger. What’s more, people who are at 20 to 25 years old are busy studying and working to prepare for their future, maybe they have no more time playing than the teenagers. Even it is true that players who are most likely to play games are 20 to 25 years old, it is also not a bright idea for Whirlwind to spend so much on advertising on them., for it is said that the game require the most up-to-date computers. People at this age are not rich enough to afford this amount of expenses. So that the advertisement should aim at persuading other group of people, for example, player’s parents, to purchase the game for their kids. So, The method that advertisement directed at 20 to 25 years old is not a bright idea.

Thirdly, the arguer claims that sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two year, so that the should introduce another new game to reverse this trend. But whether the new idea would work without considering the reason why the sales of Whirlwind have declined? Maybe there is something wrong with the company, such as managing, techniques, service, and quality of products. Developing a new game is just a tache of a chain, without others, the chain would not work smoothly. In order to make the company better, that arguer should consider more on the situation of the company. If there were already something wrong with the company, even the new game would be the most popular in the future could not save the company.

All in all, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in this argument does not support to what the arguer maintains. To better evaluate the argument, the arguer should have to give more careful examination on the survey to represent all players, he should have to give an advertisement towards the people who can afford the game, and more important, the arguer should consider the reason why the sales of whirlwind have been declining these years so that he could give a wiser advise.

DriverEntryUID: 143979

35 The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
“Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 20 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months.”

In this argument, the arguer concludes that the sales of Whirlwind games are likely to increase dramatically in several months. To support his conclusion, the arguer provide a survey in which the players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics which need the most up to date computers. In addition, the arguer cites that Whirlwind has introduced some such games with an extensive advertising directed to 20 to 25 years old who are most likely to play video games. The conclusion seems reasonable from the appearance, while it suffers from several critical fallacious after careful examination.

First, in order to clarify the conclusion, the arguer gives a survey which suggests that the most popular game is the lifelike graphics. Since the arguer wants to get a general conclusion, the sample should be sufficient enough to represent all players. But from this survey, we could find no clue on this aspect. On the other hand, the sample should be based on the random sampling in which the readers could get a credible result. For example, maybe the players who prefer lifelike graphics have the most up-to date computers, but how about the others? This simple survey gives several doubts to readers, for example, Players from different places have different favors on games, is the survey taken from one region without considering others? Maybe the arguer’s sample is too simple and narrow to elucidate all the players.

第一：调查本身有问题，样本是否充分？是否有说明力？
这个确实是个错误，批驳时可以把年龄层次也提一下，为下文做准备。另外最后一句话写的不清楚。“too simple and narrow to elucidate all the players.”不通？elucidate改为‘represent’（代表）似乎更好。


Secondly, the arguer cites that Whirlwind has introduced such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at players 20 to 25 years old, which is not convincing to conclude that the company would earn money on this way. Even if the players favor games that provide lifelike graphics, which is not true as proved before, there is no evidence to show that plays（players） that are most likely to play games are 20 to 25 years old. Some evidence（这里不是很严密，some evidence改成常识似乎更好） show that players are younger and younger, some of them are teenagers or even younger. What’s more, people who are at 20 to 25 years old are busy studying and working to prepare for their future, maybe they have no more time playing than the teenagers. Even it is true that players who are most likely to play games are 20 to 25 years old, it is also not a bright idea for Whirlwind to spend so much on advertising on them., for it is said that the game require the most up-to-date computers. People at this age are not rich enough to afford this amount of expenses. So that the advertisement should aim at persuading other group of people, for example, player’s parents, to purchase the game for their kids. So, The method that advertisement directed at 20 to 25 years old is not a bright idea.

第二：针对20-25岁年轻人的宣传并不一定导致销售量的增加。
这里“is not a bright idea.”的说法不是很精确。我觉得应更为强调“宣传攻势并不一定导致销售增加”

Thirdly, the arguer claims that sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two year, so that the （they） should introduce another new game to reverse this trend（这句话原文中没说呀，是你自己加的。这好象是老毛病了 ：）. But whether the new idea would work without considering the reason why the sales of Whirlwind have declined? Maybe there is something wrong with the company, such as managing, techniques, service, and quality of products. Developing a new game is just a tache of a chain, without others, the chain would not work smoothly. In order to make the company better, that arguer should consider more on the situation of the company. If there were already something wrong with the company, even the new game would be the most popular in the future could not save the company.

第三：应该分析一下销售下降的深层原因。

All in all, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in this argument does not support to what the arguer maintains. To better evaluate the argument, the arguer should have to give more careful examination on the survey to represent all players, he should have to give an advertisement towards the people who can afford the game, and more important, the arguer should consider the reason why the sales of whirlwind have been declining these years so that he could give a wiser advise.

总的来说思路还是比较清楚的，不过有些地方有些小错误，表达还不够精确。

PS：有空的话，帮忙看一下偶的ISSUE。呵呵

鱼的宝贝UID: 150861

谢谢，这个东东仍在这里好几天，还是让你给看见了，呵呵
我对issue实在是很头疼，本想过两天练熟了再看看大家的，这几天写提纲写的有一点吐血，把专业书都拿出来扫描了，准备导师过两天回来以后和他谈一下，搜刮一点新的例子。到时候拿出来和大家一起分享~~