Argument147-kito小组第一次作业 谢谢大家~

kito9695UID: 209685

=====================Argument====================
【题目】
Argument 147（477 words）
The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

【提纲】
1.错误因果：喜欢画面感强的游戏-----W的销售趋势会好转，没有直接关系
2.整体推局部：10-25岁的人不一定和调查结果一致也喜欢画面感强的游戏
3.思维不全面：W引进这类游戏也不一定会导致销量好转，没有考虑其它影响销量的因素，如别的公司也有这类游戏、质量问题、成本费用问题.
4.其他漏洞：如survey的可信度。

【正文】
The arguer is inclined to believe that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically, by providing the evidence that a survey indicates players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers and Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. Nevertheless, a careful scrutiny of the argument reveals its several logical flaws, which make its conclusion unwarranted and dubious.

First of all, the arguer fails to establish a causal relationship between the players’ interest about lifelike graphics and the rise of the sales of Whirlwind video games. Players prefer games which provide lifelike graphics does not equal to they will by Whirlwind video games, for the reasons that perhaps they just play them in games bar or maybe they have little money to afford to buy it. What’s more, whether the computers of players are the most up-to-date computers that fit the games with lifelike graphics should also be taken into account. If the players’ computers are not good enough to play such games, Whirlwind video games will not increase either.

Second, another defect that weakens the argument is that there is no information indicates the features are preferred by the samples of the survey are shared by the people 10 to 25 years old. Albeit Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, we can not rule out the possibility that they, who are 10 to 25, may not the ones who prefer games with lifelike graphics. And if not, the advertising will make no sense.

In addition, the arguer commits a fallacy of ignoring other possible issues that may influence the sales of Whirlwind video games. What about the quality of Whirlwind video games? How many competitors are in the market? Even if players of 10 to 25 years old preferred games that provide lifelike graphics, and this kind of game sold well, before making a careful investigation about Whirlwind’s competitors’ products we would not conclude that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically.

Finally, before I come to my conclusion, it is necessary to point out several other flaws in the argument. The arguer doesn’t provide enough exact details about the survey, which may demonstrate it effective. For example, is the sample of the survey large enough? Or are the surveyors chose on random? If not, all the conclusions based on the survey should be reversed.

To sum up, the argument is not reasoned as it stands. To make it logically accepted, the arguer would first make an effective survey and then do a careful scrutiny about the market, Whirlwind’s competitors and the exact buying capability of its target customers.


谢谢！

[ Last edited by kito9695 on 2005-12-14 at 16:54 ]

@amy@UID: 209096

The arguer is inclined to believe that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically, by providing the evidence that a survey indicates players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers and Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. Nevertheless, a careful scrutiny of the argument reveals its several logical flaws, which make its conclusion unwarranted and dubious.

First of all, the arguer fails to establish a causal relationship between the players’ interest about lifelike graphics and the rise of the sales of Whirlwind video games. Players prefer games which(that) provide lifelike graphics does(are) not equal to they will by(buy) Whirlwind video games, for the reasons that perhaps they just play them in games bar or maybe they have little money to afford to buy it(afford it). What’s more(我觉得这里用what's more好像不太合适，接下来说的好像和前面说的have little money to afford it意思一样), whether the computers of players are the most up-to-date computers that fit the games with lifelike graphics should also be taken into account. If the players’ computers are not good enough to play such games, Whirlwind video games will not increase either.

Second, another defect that weakens the argument is that there is no information indicates(to indicate that) the features are（去掉are） preferred by the samples of the survey are shared by the people 10 to 25 years old. Albeit Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, we can not(cannot) rule out the possibility that they, who are 10 to 25, may not the ones who prefer games with lifelike graphics. And if not, the advertising will make no sense.

In addition, the arguer commits a fallacy of ignoring other possible issues that may influence the sales of Whirlwind video games. What about the quality of Whirlwind video games? How many competitors are in the market? Even if players of 10 to 25 years old preferred games that provide lifelike graphics, and this kind of game sold well, before making a careful investigation about Whirlwind’s competitors’ products we would not conclude that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically.

Finally, before I come to my conclusion, it is necessary to point out several other flaws in the argument. The arguer doesn’t provide enough exact details about the survey, which may demonstrate (加上that) it (加上was) effective. For example, is(was) the sample of the survey large enough? Or are(did) the surveyors chose on random? If not, all the conclusions based on the survey should be reversed.（这块我也不确定，不知道关于survey的说明是否要用过去时态呢？）

To sum up, the argument is not reasoned as it stands. To make it logically accepted, the arguer would first make an effective survey and then do a careful scrutiny about the market, Whirlwind’s competitors and the exact buying capability of its target customers.

嗯，总体上写得挺不错的，继续加油，呵呵~

[ Last edited by @amy@ on 2005-12-15 at 09:38 ]

@amy@UID: 209096

还没完全看完，明天接着看，呵呵

kito9695UID: 209685

谢谢amy，动作好快~

智恩UID: 2160717

The arguer is inclined to believe that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically, by providing the evidence that a survey indicates players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers and Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. Nevertheless, a careful scrutiny of the argument reveals its several logical flaws, which make its conclusion unwarranted and dubious.

First of all, the arguer fails to establish a causal relationship between the players’ interest about lifelike graphics and the rise of the sales of Whirlwind video games. Players (who) prefer games which provide lifelike graphics does not(are, be equal to ) equal to they will by（buy） Whirlwind video games, for the reasons that perhaps they just play them in games bar or maybe they have little money to afford to buy it. What’s（what is） more, whether the computers of players are the most up-to-date computers that fit the games with lifelike graphics should also be taken into account. If the players’ computers are not good enough to play such games,（the sales of） Whirlwind video games will not increase either.

Second, another defect that weakens the argument is that there is no information indicates（to indicate that） the features are（去掉are） preferred by the samples of the survey are shared by the people 10 to 25 years old. Albeit Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, we can not rule out the possibility that they, who are 10 to 25, may not the ones who prefer games with lifelike graphics. And if not（If so）, the advertising will make no sense.

In addition, the arguer commits a fallacy of ignoring other possible issues（factors may be better） that may influence the sales of Whirlwind video games. What about the quality of Whirlwind video games? How many competitors are in the market? Even if players of 10 to 25 years old preferred games that provide lifelike graphics, and this kind of game sold well, before making a careful investigation about Whirlwind’s competitors’ products we would not conclude that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically.

Finally, before I come to my conclusion, it is necessary to point out several other flaws in the argument. The arguer doesn’t （does not）provide enough exact details about the survey, which may demonstrate it effective（its effectiveness）. For example, is the sample of the survey large enough? Or are the surveyors chose on random?（It is entirely possible that this survey does not base on a random sample.这样表达我觉得更好） If not, all the conclusions based on the survey should be reversed.

To sum up, the argument is not reasoned（unconvincing） as it stands. To make it logically accepted, the arguer would first make an effective survey and then do a careful scrutiny about the market, Whirlwind’s competitors and the exact buying capability of its target customers

Argument中很少用问句，最好把你的问句换换。
总的思路很清晰，继续加油！！

@amy@UID: 209096

哇~~  智恩那么晚了还在啊，呵呵