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本帖最后由 chalia 于 2010-2-2 15:49 编辑
147. The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
尽管Whirlwind游戏公司的游戏销量在过去两年中下降了,最近一次对于电子游戏玩家的调查显示这种销售趋势可能会逆转。该调查询问游戏玩家对于一个游戏来说他们所认为的最重要特征是什么。根据调查结果,玩家倾向于那些需要最先进的电脑的,具有活灵活现图象的游戏。Whirlwind刚刚面向10-25岁的人群开展了大力的广告活动来推广若干此类游戏,10-25岁是最喜欢玩游戏的年龄层。这说明Whirlwind公司的游戏销量将会在未来几个月中猛增。
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1楼 : 文章初稿
3楼 : 在mintsh的意见下修改
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In this article the author claims that sales of Whirlwind video games will grow swiftly in the next few months. To validate this argument, the author quotes a survey which reveals players prefer games with lifelike graphics, and the author also points out that Whirlwind video games has introduced such kind of games with an advertising campaign. Scrutiny examination of each the supporting evidence, however, reveals that none of them lend credible support to the author’s claim.
The major problem with this argument is that there is no evidence showing that the survey which suggests an upward sales trend of Whirlwind video games is reliable. Firstly, the author provides no evidence that the survey’s respondents are representative of the overall group of video-game players. Furthermore, lacking the detail number of participants, it is possibly that people who respond to the survey is constituted an in sufficiently small sample compared to the overall group. In short, without better evidence that the survey is statistically reliable the author cannot rely on it to draw any firm conclusions that the sales of Whirlwind are likely to increase dramatically.
Even if the survey is statistically reliable, another point worth considering is that players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics does not necessarily indicate that they will purchase such games. It is widely acknowledged that games with lifelike graphics require the most up-to-date computers. It is entirely possible that most video-game players refuse to buy games with lifelike graphics because it is too expensive to upgrade their computers at the same time. Even if the video-game players would like to buy games that provide lifelike graphics, the author assumes further that those players will buy such games from Whirlwind. Yet the article contains no evidence to substantiate this assumption. Lacking such evidence it is equally possible that the players prefer another company which specializes in producing games with lifelike graphics. Thus, without better evidence that players will ultimately buy games from Whirlwind, the claim remains unconvincing.
Before I come to my conclusion, it is necessary to point out another flaw appeared in the argument. The extensive advertising campaign Whirlwind directed at people 10 to 25 years old hardly suffices to prove that the sales of Whirlwind would like to raise dramatically in the coming days. The author gives no evidence that people 10 to 25 years old are interested in games with lifelike graphics. It is entirely possible that most of the respondents who show special interest in games with lifelike graphics are about 30 years old, and people 10 to 25 years old are more concerned with storyline of the games. Even if people 10 to 25 years old are fond of games with lifelike graphics that Whirlwind produced, the argument rests on the further assumption that they could perfectly well afford to buy such games. It is equally possible that people in their late teens or early twenties are mostly students who do not have a steady source of income, and their parents refuse to buy them video games which seem to have a negative influence on their study. Thus, any of these scenarios, if true, would cast considerable doubt on the argument’s conclusion that Whirlwind’s sales of video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
In sum, as it stands the argument that sales of Whirlwind would like to increase swiftly in the next few months is wholly unpersuasive. To bolster it the author must show more detail statistics of the survey. To better assess the argument it would be useful to know whether there is a casual relationship between interest in games with lifelike graphics and the real purchase behavior of such games. Also useful would be any information about other factors that may have impact on the sale of video games such as sound effect, storyline, price and etc.
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世界上最痛苦的是莫过于写argu。。比写argu更痛苦的是写issue。。。T_T |
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