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岁月静好UID: 2738700

TOPIC: ARGUMENT57 - The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.

"Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well."
WORDS: 553
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2010-2-2 22:01:41

The speaker cited a study, through the study of first-tine ulcer patients who took Zorba, the speaker asserted that Zorba worked well in healing first-time ulcer so that it would also work well in preventing as well, the function of Zorba worth recommendation. The assertion seemed to be logical at the first glance while further analysis revealed several logical fallacies.

In the first place, the information of two groups of patients is vague so that the effects of Zorba in healing ulcer and prevent recurrence is doubtful and somewhat misleading. Firstly, not knowing more information about patients such as their age, careers, habits of lives, which are essential in resulting in ulcers, the mere fact that only 25 percent of ulcer patients developed new ulcers does not represent the average number of patients who can be healed, it is possible that Zorba only works for those who had ulcer due to bat habits of lives, if so, the proportion of patients who had bad habits of lives determined the number of those patients who did not develop new ulcers. Secondly, without information such as what medicines those patients took before attending the study, the effects of Zorba remains doubtful, with the fact that Zorba pill was designed as dietary supplement, the possibility strong that it is the medicines those patients took before contributed to the cure of ulcer, which means Zorba is useless in curing first- time ulcer. Finally, without more detailed comparison about two groups, such as the state of their ulcer, the medicine they took before, whether they took the same medication, the comparison of 25 and 75 percent patients who did not get new ulcer worth further analysis. To lead people to focus on the effects of Zorba, the speaker should provide more information about patients.

In hte second place, even though Zorba pill are responsible for the cure of first-time ulcer and prevent recurrence, the mere fact that the effects on preventing new ulcer cannot equal with the prevention of first-time ulcer. The pathologies of two kinds of ulcer remains vague, two ulcers caused from different pathologies calls for different methods to heal, just like colds cause from different reason such virus and cold cannot be treated in the same way, the medicine on curing first-time ulcer may not have the same effect on preventing it. Different ailments call for different methods to heal.

Furthermore, even though more studies and details reveal that Zorba do work for both first-time ulcer and preventing it, before more study on side effects and the period to cure, the pill should not be recommended to public. Not knowing effects of Zorba on children, the old, the pregnant and other potential cotumers, not knowing whether the time cost to cure is worthy and the price is
appropriate, which most people can afford, the recommendation is hasty.

To sum up, the effects of Zorba on first-time ulcer is doubtful, and the function on preventing first-time ulcer, without knowing reasons for 2 ailments, are weakened by other possibilities as mentioned above, to strengthen the recommendation, the speaker should offer more information about patients in the study and pathologies of 2 ulcers. And only with more detailed study such as side effects and periods of cure can Zorba be recommended to public as medicine besides dietary supplement.

jessicamarineUID: 2595044

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