[Big Fish]03月04日Argument14--By sunny球

sunny球UID: 2693880

TOPIC: ARGUMENT14 - The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.

"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."

In this argument, the author concludes that it is advisable for Green Thumb Gardening Centre to increase the profits by expanding variety of vegetable seeds, as the consumers' interest in growing their own vegetables keeps increasing. To justify this claim, the arguer conducts a national survey, which indicates the dissatisfaction of consumers with fresh vegetables available in the supermarkets. Moreover, the argument pointed out that the local gardening magazine is sold out. However, the argument suffers from several critical fallacies.

First of all, the argument provides no evidence that the result of the national survey is statistically reliable. To be more specific, the arguer fails to inform us the detail of the survey and the quantity of the samples who do the survey. It is entirely possible that the participants in the survey are mostly composed of people who live in big cities, thus they have more choices to gain more fresh vegetables other than supermarkets, such as vegetable markets, farms and groceries. Obviously, it is opposite to people who live in small villages and rely on supermarkets a lot. On the other hand, the general tendency can't reflect the specialty locally. Without more surveys of the favor of people, the assertion that people are dissatisfied with store-sold vegetables is indefensible.

In addition, even if the consumers are displeased with the vegetables provided in the supermarket, the sold out of the gardening magazine does not necessarily lead to the conclusion that the consumers are interested in growing vegetables themselves instead. According to the argument, we cannot find any detail information about the content and circulation of the magazine.
So it is possible, for instance, the magazine has abundant information about growing flowers but has little things concerning growing vegetables; if so, the buyers are likely to be fond of growing flowers rather than vegetables. What's more, if the total number of the published magazines is small, it is easy to sell them out quickly although less people are interest in them. Without considering and ruling out other alternative explanations, the author can not convince me the increasing interest of the consumers in planting vegetables.

Furthermore, even if the conclusions above are valid, the arguer has not provided strong evidence to substantiate further assumption that the introduction of various vegetable seeds can be an effective way to increase the profits. Lacking comparison between the pay and gains, it is entirely possible that the government would gain less profit or could not afford the cost of large amount of various seeds, due to the fact that the consumers would still buy little despite they have more choices. Without taking into account the cost of various seeds and the deep investments about market needs, it is dubious to ensure that profits are attributed to the variety of seeds, let alone spend more money on it.

As it stands, the argument for increasing profits through expanding the variety if vegetable seeds is not well reasoned. To make it logically acceptable, the arguer would have to make deep investment of the favor of consumers and the potential market locally.