【Big Fish】03月14日Argument167--By lospirit

lospiritUID: 2769690

题目：ARGUMENT167
A folk remedy* for insomnia, the scent in lavender flowers, has now been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. During the second week, the volunteers discontinued their medication. As a result, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks. This shows that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia.
*A folk remedy is usually a plant-based form of treatment common to traditional forms of medicine, ones that developed before the advent of modern medical services and technology.

In this argument, the arguer advocates that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia. Although this argument might seem reasonable at first glance, it is in fact ill-conceived. The reasons are stated as follows.
First, Although the study which proved the scent in lavender flowers effective for insomnia seems reliable, the arguer offers no information about  the 30 people who take part in this experiment. Age, sex, job, the kind of insomnia, etc, is blank to us. Without those information, we can not make sure whether this experiment was randomization or not. An appropriate instance is not very far to seek. When test is coming, some students may be wakefully all night during the period. This insomnia is different from the one of the elderly. Considering to the possibility of my instance, The study's sampling is definitely flawed unless the arguer can convince me that  the sampling is reasonable.
Secondly, the study indeed found a phenomenon that the volunteers slept longer and more soundly during the third week than in the previous two weeks. Nevertheless, there is no reference about how tired they feel, and the study did not set up match group to attest this phenomenon attribute to the lavender. It is quite possible that other things as circumstance perform a function. To illustrate this point clearly, let us take a look at the following representative example. I believe everybody have such an experience that one could not get off to sleep when in a strange place. There are reasons to believe that the controlled room is strange to the volunteers in the previous two weeks, which led they slept shorter and less soundly than in the third week. Without accounting for and ruling out these and other alternative explanations, the arguer cannot bolster the conclusion.
The last but not the least important, even if the evidence turns out to support the foregoing inference, the arguer just simply assumes the benefit of this remedy and not consider the damage or the phenomenon in the second week. It is reasonable to doubt that what the arguer assumes will not benefit from this remedy in a long period. It is just as possible that this remedy merely is effective in a short time. To reach the cited conclusion, the arguer must explain  whether the remedy could continue working for long and whether this remedy is harmless.
To sum up, the arguer's argument mentioned above is based on a study which is lack of vaild evidence er sound reasoning, neither of which is dispensable for a conclusive argument. In order to draw a better conclusion, the arguer should reason more convincingly, cite some evidence that is more persuasive, and take every possible consideration into account.