Argument14,14th,酒香小组,nofeelings

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT14 - The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.

"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."

I consider that owner of Green Thumb is misled by the superficial phenomenon of national survey and magazine sale condition, and then illogically draw an unsuitable conclusion. So I disagree the judgment of the author that company will gain more profits.

Firstly, the national survey can not truly indicate the consumers' will. Which organization did the survey is the first thing to think over, because the authority of institution must be guaranteed. The time that the survey did is also a problem for we all know that last month's thing can not tell the approaching things in tomorrow correctly. Theses are to say that the evidence is incomplete. And the train of author's thought is lost. Illogical underlying things are suggested. If consumers were not satisfied with the quality of the fresh vegetables displayed in the supermarket, what happened then is not sure to be what the author considered: they are going to make these things on their own. There have more other possibilities. People have limited time, the time take them to cultivate will cause them little time to work or play on other interests. What would most possibly happen is that supermarket upgrade the quality of examination before vegetables go into the supermarket: carefully check them over. Consumers grow vegetables on their own can be the least possible thing to happen according to the incomplete survey. They are used to the supermarket, and want more quality guaranteed. What's more, the location is another problem to the theory for the nation may not suit for the local place. National dissatisfy does not mean the local one. So we can say the survey has not indicated the consumers' will.

Secondly, the gardening magazine Great Garden's sale condition also can not illustrate that consumers will cultivate vegetables by their selves. On the one hand, the circulation of the publication is the unknown thing, then the increment of the people's interests on the magazine is the unknown thing. If the circulation of the magazine is little, then there comes little attention of the cultivation. And then the number of people who will cultivate the vegetables will interlockingly not increase extremely, may be decrease: the author's judgment of increasing profit may be collapse of itself. On the other hand, even if they are interested in the cultivation, they may not put their interests into the action. We all know the commonsense that thoughts have the long distance with the reality: what one want to do does not equal to what one do So, the magazine condition is invalid for proving more people will cultivate vegetables by their selves.

Last but not the least, even if more people will grow vegetables on their own, profits are not going to increase for sure. If they want to grow things on their garden, they will buy the seeds, and the seeds can be from any company, so this company's seeds may sell good or bad, then the company's profits will increase or decrease, without consider the economical condition. If the nation or the local place is in depression, profits are hard to increase.

In sum, the evidence has to be local and long-time, the magazine has to be popular, then the people may want to buy the seed, and the economical condition has to be good. Without these, author’s judgment may not be true.