- 最后登录
- 2008-9-16
- 在线时间
- 0 小时
- 寄托币
- 1278
- 声望
- 0
- 注册时间
- 2005-1-16
- 阅读权限
- 25
- 帖子
- 1
- 精华
- 1
- 积分
- 1210
- UID
- 192456

- 声望
- 0
- 寄托币
- 1278
- 注册时间
- 2005-1-16
- 精华
- 1
- 帖子
- 1
|
发表于 2005-7-28 23:26:59
|显示全部楼层
Argument 117
同主题写作,又超时了:( 大家努力的拍呀,定回拍:mad:
The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.
"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."
---------------------------
In the argument, the manager claims that by increasing the stock of home office machines and office supplies their departments will become the most profitable component of their stores. To substantiate the argument, the manager cites a survey showing that a considerable amount of people reported to take more work home than before. However, the argument suffers from some critical fallacies and is therefore unconvincing.
To begin with, the survey must be reliable before I can accept any conclusion based on it. The manager fails to present any evidence about how the survey is conducted. The manager must show that those respondents of the survey constitute a sufficiently large sample, and that the respondents are representative of the general group of office clerk covering those in a diversity of careers. Lacking such information, the credibility of the result and the conclusion based on it is open to doubt.
Even if the result of the survey is credible, it is also unfair to assume that the work-at-home people do need those machines and supplies as the manager suggests. Firstly, it is possible that work taken home by those people is some simple work, such as dealing with some statistics or reading some materials and documents, which may not require the use of those home office machines. Secondly, the need of office supplies might not increase as well. It might be true that people working home might need more office supplies at home, but the quantity they need in the office will decline at the same time. Hence, the result is that the total requirement of the office supplies just remains unchanged. Without ruling out such possibilities, the manager cannot justify his recommendation of any changes.
Finally, without any comparison between the office-supply departments and other departments, the manager's conclusion that their departments will be the most profitable is unwarranted at best. Even if we accept that by taking those actions the manager suggests, the profit of the department will be enhanced to some extent; but it is not to say that the profit they gain will be comparably the highest. The scenario that there might be some other departments which have greater business performance will inevitably weaken the manager's conclusion.
In sum, the argument is logically unpersuasive as it stands. In order to better evaluate the conclusion, we need more information about the way the survey was conducted, and further investigation about the potential requirement of the machines and office supplies. In addition, the comparison with other departments should be taken to support the conclusion. |
|