argument117 好久没写了，欠砸啊～～

lignumvitaeUID: 207532

------题目------
The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.
'Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores.'
------正文------
From this excerpt, the arguer indicates that the work-at-home trend based on a recent survey and the unconspicuous sales in the office-supply departments of Valu-Mart(VM), and concludes that the company would become profitable by increasing stock of office supplies. Close scrutiny reveals several critical logical flaws, which render it unpersuasive as it stands.

To begin with, the survey in the argument is problematic in several aspects. 1) We are not informed the concrete methodology of the survey, and could not ensure the survey is objective and reasonable enough to contribute to the conclusion. And the samples may not be representative at all. 2) Only the majority of respondents reported to the survey could not account for the whole informants' attitudes. Generally speaking, the respondents are more likely interested in the topic of the survey while others may ignore it. Therefore, we could not consider the suggestion that the company should increase stock of office supplies, unless the survey is explained firstly.

Moreover, the argument includes an unconvincing assumption that having not seen impressive sales means there are no great sales. But the arguer does not give any evidence to justify the assumption and predicts the great prospect hastily. It is entirely that impressive sales obviously increased in the office-supply departments, but the arguer has not realized it. What's more, we could not be sure that the sales would indeed increase. Since there is no evidence to demonstrate that the work-at-home trend will be lasting, and people working at home will increase the consumption of home office machines and office supplies.

In addition, the arguer also too hasty to concludes that the office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of their stores, since we do not know the situation of other departments, and whether the office-supply departments could be profitable or not is determined by many factors, including the produce cost, material cost, selling channels etc. Without sufficient evidence to the analysis, we could not believe the conclusion is reasonable, and the suggestion is feasible.

In sum, the argument suffers from several unconvincing points to weaken the conclusion. In order to bolster it, more information and evidence about the survey and situations of other department of the company is necessary. And other factors about profits should be considered as well.