Argument117 敬请各位赐教，谢谢，请留下链接，方便回拍

Archer1123UID: 206148

117.
The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.
"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."

In the argument, the author's claim that the office-supply department of Valu-Mart store should increase stock of office supplies and become the most profitable component of stores is unfounded and cannot be accepted under the close examination and scrutiny. Though the author cites a recent survey to substantiate the conclusion. At the first glance, the argument seems plausible and reasonable, on the second thought; however, as a matter of fact it is not persuasive as it stands.

To begin with, the author's conclusion based on a questionable survey. From the survey quoted in the argument, however, we find no sign of such procedure for randomly sampling, and have good reason to doubt whether the sample is representative enough to reflect the whole condition. How many people are chosen to the survey? And how many people do respond the survey at last? How about the job, the position or rank, the gender, the age of the sample? Without the specific data and information, it is hard or possible for us to accepted the unconvincing survey. Moreover, the survey tells us little about when they were required to take more work home than in the past and how long the work-at-home trend will last. Absence of the information, the author's deduction will be seriously weakened.

In addition, the author fails to convince us that the work-at-home trend will result in the increasing of purchase the home office machines, even if we accept the survey. In fact, how many people and the percentage in the work-at-trend are really need to buy the home office machines? The increasing of work in home does not guarantee the increasing of the home office machines. Maybe some people already have the home office machines; maybe some work in home need not use the home office machines, etc.

What's more, the author might oversimplified and fails to take into account other factors concerning to the profit. As we know, profit is influenced by a sort of combination of aspects the income, the outcome, the investment. Only when the income is larger than investment, is the company profitable. Even if the home office machines would sell well, however, it does not means the office-supply will profit. Maybe stocking the office supplies would increase the investment. Maybe the price of the home office machines might increase and higher than before, maybe it will take much money to transport and stock than ever. Just based on the argument information, it is hard to deduce that increasing the stock of home office machines would bring the most profit to the office-supply department.

Last but not least, the author fails to consider the competition from other stores. Maybe the person who need the home office machine would to purchase them in other stores rather than in Valu-Mart stores. If so, even stocking the home office machines really benefit to the office-supply department, but the Valu-Mart store is not the fortunate one.

To sum up, based on what discussed and analyzed above, it is clearly that the argument is invalid and misleading, and the conclusion reached in the argument is too presumptuous and hasty to be accepted. In order to make the conclusion more convincing, the author should gather more scientific and specific data, and provide more efficiency and receivable evidence to support the conclusion.

[ Last edited by staralways on 2005-7-30 at 00:16 ]