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dr_greenUID：193584

------题目------
The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.
'Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores.'

------正文------
Since this memo is lack of information about the validity of the survey, accurate analysis of the department transaction in the past, and comprehensive forecast of the future market, it is unwise to increase the stock of home office products at all Valu-Mart stores.

Firstly, to get more profit requires an steadily increasing market. However, 70% of the respondents to a recent survey is not substantial enough to demonstrate such a consuming market.  The manager should at least answer the following questions: How many people attended the survey? How many kinds of jobs did it covered? Were the respondents drawn from the same company or volunteers coming from many aspects of the society? Do those occupations contain the majority of the working force or only a small group of people? In other words, unless the survey can represent the general situation of working people, we cannot be sure that those who take work home can form a consumer market large and stable enough to buy most of the products we store.

Secondly, even if we admitted that the majority of people did take work home, would this trend increase the profit we get in office-supply departments is another question to doubt. It is unclear from the manager's memo why this department was not profitable in the past. Is it because of less marketing need, or some interior problems? It is reasonable to suspect that customers were discontented with the service, or the quality of our products was worst than other stores. Thus people turn to other stores for these products. Since this possible alternative cannot be excluded, better service and better products can acceptably become a better choice for a change.

Thirdly, since to increase the stock might be unwise, to do it at all stores can even be dangerous.  Even if we assuming that the above 2 problems are not worth worrying, unless all the stores we have are located near the possible future customers, the increase of stock would probably be stuck in the stores. Thus the manager's advice might lead to more costs instead of more profits, let along make the office-supply departments the most profitable component of our stores.

Considering the weak validity of the cited survey, a number of possible causes of low profit in early business transaction, and the uncertain trend of future market, we cannot make the eager decision to increase our stock at all office-supply departments at the moment, and search for more information.

[ Last edited by dr_green on 2005-8-2 at 16:37 ]