argument20 决战830拍砖组™"8月16日作业 同主题高频兄弟们狂拍

林森森UID: 163922

Argument20  让砖头来得更猛烈些吧！
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  432 words
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The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
'The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.'
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Merely based upon the dubious and unfounded evidence, the arguer attempts to convince the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette. To substantiate his claim, the arguer assumes that to limiting the number of mopeds rented, the town council is sure to attain a reduction in moped accidents. In addition, he cites a similar example of a neighboring island. As the argument stands, several important concerns, which the arguer fails to emphasize, may undermine the line of reasoning.

The first and most apparent err lies in the fact is that 50 percent of reduction in moped accidents will be surely attained only by limiting the number of mopeds rented by the six renters of the island. It is possible that as the amount of mopeds rented stays high, there will be more possibility to lead to accidents. However, on the one hand, as has been presented in the first sentence in this argument, there might have been a significant amount of increasing population in the island. And hence, accidents are unavoidable. One the other hand, it might be a better choice for the town council to pay more attention to the road-protecting, and the education of the riders of mopeds, or build a pedestrian to protect the large amount of people who choose to walk.

In addition, another major problem is the similarities of the two islands are not sufficient to support the conclusion that Balmer Island will benefit from the limits on moped rentals. Because,  as the arguer fails to mention that the condition of all the roads on the two islands are similar. Suppose there are all hills in the island of Torseau and thus the roads are not suit for mopeds riding, which is quite possible. And it is necessary to limit the mopeds to avoid accidents. However, there might be more measures for the Balmer Island to take according to their own conditions of roads, instead of imitating the way of Torseau.

Furthermore, the arguer is begging the question that it is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents only by limiting the mopeds in summer. Though there might be more people in summer on the island, the road conditions and moped conditions are fully possible to be worse in winter. Then there might be even more accident, which reveals the fallacious of the argument.



In summary, the reasoning seems rational as presented above. However, the conclusion drawn in the argument proves misleading and invalid. To better evaluate it, we need more valid examples and more rational argumentation.

[ Last edited by staralways on 2005-8-17 at 01:06 ]

BKRL1234UID: 2127835

这个我拍了，你们怎么改颜色的？
Merely based upon the dubious and unfounded evidence, the arguer attempts to convince the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette. To substantiate his claim, the arguer assumes that to limiting the number of mopeds rented, the town council is sure to attain a reduction in moped accidents. In addition, he cites a similar example of a neighboring island. As the argument stands, several important concerns, which the arguer fails to emphasize, may undermine the line of reasoning.

The first and most apparent err lies in the fact is that 50 percent of reduction in moped accidents will be surely attained only by limiting the number of mopeds rented by the six renters of the island. It is possible that as the amount of mopeds rented stays high, there will be more possibility to lead to accidents. However, on the one hand, as has been presented in the first sentence in this argument, there might have been a significant amount of increasing population in the island. And hence, accidents are unavoidable（这句别扭）. One the other hand, it might be a better choice for the town council to pay more attention to the road-protecting, and the education of the riders of mopeds, or build a pedestrian（看不太懂 pedestrain path?） to protect the large amount of people who choose to walk.（这里举例子我觉得还是攻击“租车”这个flaw，比如可能很多有自用助力车，减少租用车不一定会使助力车总数量减少。而且租车因为公司为了对游览者负责，往往安全措施会更好等）

In addition, another major problem is the similarities of the two islands are not sufficient to support the conclusion that Balmer Island will benefit from the limits on moped rentals. Because,  as the arguer fails to mention that the condition of all the roads on the two islands are similar. Suppose there are all hills in the island of Torseau and thus the roads are not suit for mopeds riding, which is quite possible. And it is necessary to limit the mopeds to avoid accidents. However, there might be more measures for the Balmer Island to take according to their own conditions of roads, instead of imitating the way of Torseau.

Furthermore, the arguer is begging the question that it is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents only by limiting the mopeds in summer. Though there might be more people in summer on the island, the road conditions and moped conditions are fully possible to be worse in winter. Then there might be even more accident, which reveals the fallacious of the argument.(这有点牵强吧？如果第一段按我那个思路只写租用车减少，助力车不一定会减少；那么这段可以写even if助力车数量减少了，causal relationship between 助力车数量减少 and 交通事故减少。）



In summary, the reasoning seems rational as presented above. However, the conclusion drawn in the argument proves misleading and invalid. To better evaluate it, we need more valid examples and more rational argumentation.
我的Argument117在https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=320688

[ Last edited by BKRL1234 on 2005-8-17 at 13:23 ]