argument20...fantasy group...必回拍~~

foreveraUID: 202035

TOPIC：ARGUMENT 20 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
WORDS：467         TIME：上午 12:30:00          DATE：2005-9-3


Is the author's declaration that the town council of Balmer Island should restrain the moped-renting business to reduce accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians reasonable or suspicious? In-depth scrutiny upon the evidence the author presents reveals that hastiness largely diminishes the credibility of the argument and his or her logic suffers from several fallacies as follows.

To begin with, the author offers no evidence to convince me that the most of the accidents happend in Balmer Island are caused by moped drivers rather than the pdestrians.  Perhaps, the main reason for the accidents can be attributed to the pedstrians' haphazard disobeying the traffic rules, while on the contrary the moped drivers should not be blamed for the so-called guity. Or perhaps, the bad traffic condition is the key that leads to great amount of accidents, and both moped drivers and pedestrians have nothing to do with the accidents. Under this circumstance, the limit put on moped renting business would not possibly bring a decreasing number of accidents.

Secondly, based on a false analogy, the author's assertion that Balmer should mechanically copy Torseau's example lends little credibility to his or her argument. As the author does not mention any information about the similarity of the two islands, I have enough reason to claim that the situation of Torseau is totally different from that of Balmer. For example, the road condition in Torseau might be much better than that in Balmer. To this extent, the policy of limiting the number of rented moped might not work as efficient as in Torseau.

What's more, the author unfairly assumes that most people in Balmer prefer to moped rent rather than buying moped or bicycle of their own. Even disregarding other possible factors which might offend the point, only on this basis, to limit the number of mopeds rented can really reduce the amount of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. While, the reality reveals that the reverse of the author's assumption is the case. Accordingly, the lack of steady basis of assumption seriously weakens the credibility of the assertion.

Additionally, the number limit of moped rented- from 50 to 30 might not possibly be able to attain the 50 percent reduction. Even granted that most of the people in Balmer always rent moped and bicycles from the rental companies, whether the 40 percent of the decreasing number of rented mopeds can reduce accidents by 50 percent is still open to doubt, let alone without the premise that most people do rent the bicycles. And the policy legislated only for the summer season can not possibly still work in other seasons.

In conclusion, to better substantiate the argument , the author should add some detailed information: (1)the main reason for the accidents;(2)the comparative between Balmer and Torseau;(3)the real effect of the restraining policy。

kionaUID: 207479

明天来，今天困死了
先占个座！

weiweizhuUID: 179352

Is the author's declaration that the town council of Balmer Island should restrain the moped-renting business to reduce accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians reasonable or suspicious? In-depth scrutiny upon the evidence the author presents reveals that hastiness largely diminishes the credibility of the argument and his or her logic suffers from several fallacies as follows.

To begin with, the author offers no evidence to convince me that the most of the accidents happend in Balmer Island are caused by moped drivers rather than the pdestrians.  Perhaps, the main reason for the accidents can be attributed to the pedstrians' haphazard disobeying the traffic rules, while on the contrary the moped drivers should not be blamed for the so-called guity. Or perhaps, the bad traffic condition is the key that leads to great amount of accidents, and both moped drivers and pedestrians have nothing to do with the accidents. Under this circumstance, the limit put on moped renting business would not possibly bring a decreasing number of accidents.

Secondly, based on a false analogy, the author's assertion that Balmer should mechanically copy Torseau's example lends little credibility to his or her argument. As the author does not mention any information about the similarity of the two islands, I have enough reason to claim that the situation of Torseau is totally different from that of Balmer. For example, the road condition in Torseau might be much better than that in Balmer. To this extent, the policy of limiting the number of rented moped might not work as efficient as in Torseau.（可以展开，多列举些可能的区别）

What's more, the author unfairly assumes that most people in Balmer prefer to moped rent rather than buying moped or bicycle of their own. Even disregarding other possible factors which might offend the point, only on this basis, to limit the number of mopeds rented can really reduce the amount of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians.（好像说反了把） While, the reality reveals that the reverse of the author's assumption is the case. Accordingly, the lack of steady basis of assumption seriously weakens the credibility of the assertion.

Additionally, (There are still several small fallacy which should be given further substantiation) On the one hand, the number limit of moped rented- from 50 to 30 might not possibly be able to attain the 50 percent reduction. Even granted that most of the people in Balmer always rent moped and bicycles from the rental companies, whether the 40 percent of the decreasing number of rented mopeds can reduce accidents by 50 percent is still open to doubt, let alone without the premise that most people do rent the bicycles. On the other hand,  the policy legislated only for the summer season can not possibly still work in other seasons.(觉得两句有点接不上)

In conclusion, to better substantiate the argument , the author should add some detailed information: (1)the main reason for the accidents;(2)the comparative between Balmer and Torseau;(3)the real effect of the restraining policy。（不太连贯）

KuKuMaLuUID: 2134821

Is the author's declaration that the town council of Balmer Island should restrain the moped-renting business to reduce accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians reasonable or suspicious? In-depth scrutiny upon the evidence the author presents reveals that hastiness largely diminishes the credibility of the argument and his or her logic suffers from several fallacies as follows.

To begin with, the author offers no evidence to convince me that the most of the accidents happend in Balmer Island are caused by moped drivers rather than the pdestrians.  Perhaps, the main reason for the accidents can be attributed to the pedstrians' haphazard disobeying the traffic rules, while on the contrary the moped drivers should not be blamed for the so-called guity. Or perhaps, the bad traffic condition is the key that leads to great amount of accidents, and both moped drivers and pedestrians have nothing to do with the accidents. Under this circumstance,(If the aformentioned alternative explainations are nearer to the truth,...) the limit put on moped renting business would not possibly bring a decreasing number of accidents.

Secondly, based on a false analogy, the author's assertion that Balmer should mechanically copy Torseau's example lends little credibility to his or her argument. As the author does not mention any information about the similarity of the two islands, I have enough reason to claim(It is reasonable to claim that...) that the situation of Torseau is totally different from that of Balmer.(the situations of the both palces involoved are various)For example, the road condition in Torseau might be much better than that in Balmer. To this extent, the policy of limiting the number of rented moped might not work as efficient as in Torseau.

What's more,(这一点理由不如说成the suthor unfairly assumed that the number of  rent mopeds consitutue a major part of total moped. 呵呵, 一家之见...)
the author unfairly assumes that most people in Balmer prefer to moped rent rather than buying moped or bicycle of their own. Even disregarding other possible factors which might offend the point, (judging from)only on this basis, to limit the number of mopeds rented can really reduce the amount of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. While, the reality reveals that the reverse of the author's assumption is the case. Accordingly, the lack of steady basis of assumption seriously weakens the credibility of the assertion.

Additionally, the number limit of moped rented- from 50 to 30 might not possibly be able to attain the 50 percent reduction. Even granted that most of the people in Balmer always rent moped and bicycles from the rental companies, whether the 40 percent of the decreasing number of rented mopeds can reduce accidents by 50 percent is still open to doubt, let alone without the premise that most people do rent the bicycles. And the policy legislated only for the summer season can not possibly still work in other seasons.

In conclusion, to better substantiate the argument , the author should add some detailed information: (1)the main reason for the accidents;(2)the comparative between Balmer and Torseau;(3)the real effect of the restraining policy。