argument38

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38.The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public
Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to
significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study
reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high,
people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of
colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds.
Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school
and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement
derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower
absenteeism."

提纲：
1 吃鱼和不得感冒没关系
2 感冒和旷课没关系
3 这种药和鱼的成分也不会完全一样

In this memo, the West Meria Public Health Council recommends that in order to prevent colds and lower absenteeism, people should use Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, everyday. To support the recommendation, the committee points out the fact that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds, and cold is the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work . However, the argument is problematic for three reasons with vague, oversimplified and unwarranted assumptions.

In the first place, there is not necessary relationship between fish consumption and the low rate of catching cold. The fact that  people in live near East Meria, who eat much fish seldom catch cold is not sound evidence to draw a conclusion that eating fish can reduce catching cold. Perhaps people there are more healthy and strong because of the climate .Or maybe they inherit a good habit from their forefather, which lead to the immunity to cold, for example winter swimming.

In the second place, the council attempts to establish a causal relationship between catching cold and the absences from school and work. This argument is based on an oversimplified analysis of the cause of absenteeism, the presumptuous correlation according is unacceptable. Actually, it is equally possible that because of something more important to do than going to school or work. Without ruling out such alternative explanations, the committee can not convince me that cold mainly results in absence.

In the third place, although Ichthaid is a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil. The analogies of nutrition ingredients draw between Ichthaid and fish are highly suspect because there are many differences. For example, for physical or chemical reasons, some vital ingredient may become out of function during the process of fining which contribute directly to the immunity to cold.

To sum up, the recommendation reached in the memo lacks credibility since the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the council claims. To make the recommendation more convincing, the council should provide more information concerning the immunity to cold in the area nearby East Meria in better evaluate the recommendation. We need more concrete evidence that by eating fish, people can have lower rate to catch cold, it is the main reason for the absence from study or work to catch cold and the ingredient of Ichthaid are all the same to fish, thus we can reach the conclusion the memo mentioned above.