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Argument117:(492)
The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.
'Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores.'
Outline:
1、调查的可信度值得怀疑;(调查对象SOHO,调查规模,调查方法)
2、缺乏信息说明需要home office machine(可能电脑足以,或家里已经有了)
3、缺乏信息说明顾客一定购买Valu-Mart,存货行为值得怀疑
4、most profitable这个结论太武断
正文:
In this argument, on the surface, it may seem a sound suggestion that increasing Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines for raise the profit of Valu-Mart, but careful weighing on the mind, we find that the suggestion is built on a hasty survey and on some assumptions without evidences.
To begin with, the survey might be problematic in three ways. First, we are not informed the information about the respondents in the survey. Perhaps the informants are mostly people who prefer work at home, such as SOHO. In that way, the informants cannot represent most people who are at work. Second, we are not informed the exact number of respondents or their percentage in the whole population. If only a small portion of the whole population is taking in the survey, it is obviously that the survey is inaccurate. Third, we are not informed the survey methodology. It is possible that the survey required that respondents choose between alternatives. If it did, then the result might distort the preferences of the respondents. In either event, the survey results would be unreliable for the purpose of drawing the conclusion that workers are required to take more work home, let alone that improve the profits through large sales of home office machines.
In addition, the argument depends on the assumption that people who are required to take work home need home office machine. Yet no evidence is offered to substantiate this assumption. It is entirely possible that people only need to use computers at work for dealing affairs on the computers, rather than home office machine, such as printers, small copy machines and so on. Or it is possible that people who are required work at home have enough home office machines at home, it is no need to buy any more. Without considering and ruling out these and other situations, the business manager cannot confidently conclude that Valu-Mart should store the stocks of home office machines.
The argument depends on the additional unsubstantiated assumption that people who want to buy home office machines will choose Valu-Mart as the buyers. Absent evidence that this is the case, it is possible that customers would select other stores for that other stores sell the same kinds of office home machines, and maybe other's products are cheaper, have better quality and better sale-after services. In short, unless the business manager can show that Valu-Mart is the first choice of buyers of home office machines, I cannot accept the conclusion.
From what has been discussed above, it is obviously that the conclusion that Valu-Mart will become the most profitable stores is too presumptuous. And the measure that Valu-Mart increase store the stocks of home office machines is too hasty without considering some other factors and evidences to support the assumptions. It is better for the business manager to collect more comprehensive and exact information before draw the conclusion.
[ 本帖最后由 gaojiehaha 于 2006-1-5 18:15 编辑 ] |
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