argument65 FLY AW第二十七次作业

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 541       TIME: 上午 12:29:41          DATE: 2006-7-4

In this memo, the president of the cheese stores asserts that in order to improve profits in all of their stores, they should resort to discontinuing stocking most imported cheese, yet concertrating primarily on domestic cheeses. To justify the recommedation, the arguer cites a fact regarding the sales in the newest store. Also, a recently-condected survey was mentioned in an attempt to indicating the increasing preference for domestic cheeses. Unfortunately, based on the logical deducing fallacies, neither the former nor the later could lend sound credence to the conclusion.

In the first place, the fact that the five best-selling cheeses at the newest store are all domestic cheddar cheeses cannot demonstrate the prevailing trend of domestice cheddar cheeses throughout the country. On one hand, the newest store is not representative of the overall stores in the chain. Perhaps people have a fresh feeling toward the newly-established store, which orient their inclinations strongly. Or perhaps the five kinds of cheeses are all on sale, thus attract most customers. Also, it is entirely possible that there are only domestic cheese in the store, since it still has not subscribing stockings from abroad. On the other, given the fact mentioned above,we cannot ensure that the trend would  continue in the following years.Thus we cannot conclude the popularity of domestic cheese from the mere fact regarding the newest store.

In the second place, the recent-conducted survey cited in the argument is open to doubt, for some statistical and logical fallacies. First, the argument does not provide relevant information regarding the targeted samplers in the survey conducted by Cheeses of the World magazine, it is entirely possible this magazine also accumulate the data from foreign subscribers. Beside, only an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers can not necessarily indicate a prevailing trend of domestic cheeses in the country. Maybe the actual level of domestic cheese consumption is still considerably low, compared to that of imported cheese. If so, discontinuing stocking of imported cheese would incur unimaginable consequence as a result.

Even assuming the expenses could be reduced to some extent by means of limiting inventory, other kinds of expenses which share even larger parts in the sales chains should also be taken into consideration. Since the expenses in the stage of stocking, the transportation and distribution costs would increase in case of lacking of sufficient stocks, all the costs mentioned above may offset the profits.

Even assuming saving the expenses regarding stocking imported cheese can significantly reduce the total cost, thus lead to improved profits, we cannot ensure that only concertrating on domestic cheeses would be a wise strategy. Without detailed information indicating the preference to the imported cheese, the author cannot convince us that the necessity of discontinuing stocking most of the imported cheese. Perhaps many individuals incline to consump the imported cheese, if so, the proposal would arouse lots of negative effects.

In sum, this conclusion is unsubstantiated as it stands, for several reasons above. To strengthen the president’s assertion, more detailed information needs to be provided, such as selling conditio at the old stores, which are more representative, as well as the inclination of the mass . Beside, the potential costs of transportation as well as the distribution should be considered.