Argument53【0906G 文以载道三月四月作文小组】第2周第1作业 by babysxy

babysxyUID: 2450838

[fly]ARGUMENT53 - Thirteenyears ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of milddistress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a taperecording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likelythan other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when theirmothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brainfunctions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In afollow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of thesechildren-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves asshy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness duringinfancy and this shyness continues into later life.
13年前，研究者研究了一组在受到不熟悉的刺激比如不寻常的气味和未知声音的录音时表现出轻微紧张的25名婴儿。他们发现这些婴儿比其他婴儿更可能在早秋怀孕，而早秋是他们的母亲分泌的melatonin--一种已知会影响一些大脑功能的荷尔蒙--因日照的减少而增加的季节。在今年早些时候所作的跟踪调查中，这些表现出紧张迹象的儿童--现在已经是十几岁--有一半以上认为自己害羞。显然，出生前melatonin的增加导致婴儿期的羞涩并且这种羞涩将延续至生命更晚的阶段

ARGUMENT53


Outline:
1.
the sample is not the representative
2.
shyness may not due to melatonin
3.
other factors may result in shyness in teenagers, we can not draw conclusion about continuity of shyness


In this argument, the author concludes that infants' shyness caused by increased levels of melatonin before birth continues into later life. To support the conclusion the author cites a survey involving 25 infants who were born when mother’s production of melatonin was in high levels. These infants in the study felt mild distress while exposed to unfamiliar stimuli and more than half of them still show signs of shyness after they grow into teenagers. However, this
argument is logically flawed in several critical respects.

To begin with, all of the author's inference or conclusions are depend on the assumption that the result of the survey are considerably reliable. Yet, the author offers no evidence to substantiate this assumption. The author must shows that these 25 infants constitute a sufficiently large sample of the infants conceived at different time of seasons, and the mothers gave birth to the infants are in the same state of mind, in other words, the sample is representative of all such infants. It is entirely possible that mothers with low mood have high levels of melatonin ;Or perhaps infants born in other seasons when the contents of melatonin is in a low also showed signs of shyness.

Secondly, the arguer fails to establish a causal relationship between the infants' mild distress and increased levels of melatonin. No scientific evidence illustrates that increased levels of melatonin have some sort of influence on infants. It is entirely possible that melatonin only plays a part on mothers’ brain functions, and has nothing to do with the infants’. Moreover, Many other factors can lead to infants' shyness. Perhaps infants are shy just like their parents, and the shyness is just kind of genetic performance or imitative behavior.
Or perhaps they happen to fell sick and were tired of anything, so they showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli. Without accounting for all other alternative explanations, the arguer can not reasonably conclude that melatonin is responsible for infants’ shyness.

Thirdly, even if the arguer can substantiate all of the foregoing assumptions, his or her assertion that the shyness during infancy continues into later life is still unwarranted. The arguer fails to rule out other factors that might have caused shyness---for example, the family or social environment they are involved in, including the teachers, classmates and friends being in touch with them, parents and relatives’ living with them, the duties they are on in class and the responsibility they are taking in the community and other social activities. In short, unless the study was performed in a controlled environment where all factors were the same for the subjects, it is impossible to draw any firm conclusion about the continuity of this shyness.

In sum the speaker's conclusion is not reasonabole as it stands. To bolster the argument the author must provide better evidence that the sample is the representatives of all infants; There is sufficient scientific evidence to support that high levels of melatonin will lead to infants’ shyness. To better assess the argument, I need to analyze the living and educational environment of the subjects.
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chvlylUID: 2201025

开头,结尾都是模板化,没什么可说的
中间段列举的可能性或者范例挺详细的
但是缺少和题目论断的联系