Argument33【六人作文小组】第4周第3次作业

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT33 - The following report appeared in an archaeology journal.

"The discovery of distinctively shaped ceramic pots at various prehistoric sites scattered over a wide area has led archaeologists to ask how the pots were spread. Some believe the pot makers migrated to the various sites and carried the pots along with them; others believe the pots were spread by trade and their makers remained in one place. Now, analysis of the bones of prehistoric human skeletons can settle the debate: high levels of a certain metallic element contained in various foods are strongly associated with people who migrated to a new place after childhood. Many of the bones found near the pots at a few sites showed high levels of the metallic element. Therefore, it must be that the pots were spread by migration, not trade."
WORDS: 543
TIME: 上午 12:30:00
DATE: 2009-1-28

The author of this report avers that it was the migration that contributed to the scattering of ceramic pots at different sites based on an analysis of the relationship between the level of metallic element in bones and migration. The ratiocination seems reasonable. However, on close examination it proves to be deeply problematic and unconvincing.

A threshold problem involved in this report is whether it is scientific enough to wipe out possibility of the pots been spread by trade even after the analysis of bones in the nearby sites. Since to author fails to consider whether the number of bones are enough to represents the truth or not, it is highly possible that most bones actually contain a very low lever of metallic element. Moreover, even if only a few bones contain low level of metallic element, the author fails to present certain explanation why those bones exist. One could confidently hypothesis that it was those people spread the pots by trade. Without considering these doubts, the conclusion that the pots were spread by migration is unreliable.

Furthermore, even if one were to concede that it were the people with high level of metallic elements in bones that contributed to the spread of certain pots, doubts still remain as if there is any other possible factor that lead to the high level of certain elements? The truth could be that after buried for years, the bones accept certain elements from the soil, which include the metallic. Since the author fails to present the evidence that the metallic elements can only develop from the migration, other factors can also explain the high level of certain elements in bones other than migration.

In addition, people's bones in only a few sites near the pots are not sufficient to link them with the spread of pots. It is highly possible that those people actually did not involved in the action of spreading. And the author also presents little evidence of how high the standard is and how high the metallic elements in those bones, we cannot safely reason that the people were indeed migrated to here. Taking into considering those possible considerations, it is too hastily to conclude that the pots were scattered by migration.

Lastly, another major problem the author neglects is whether there exist any other explanations to the spread of pots other than trade or migration by those people buried. It is equally possible that there was an army that conquered a place with certain pots that brought them here.
Moreover, there could exist a group of businessmen that took the pots here and left the place, thus there bones cannot be found in the nearby sites. Without related study to rule out these possible explanations, we cannot confidently conclude it is the migration that led to the spread of pots.

In sum, to better bolster the author's idea, more scientific study is needed to ensure that the majority of the bones contain the high level of metallic elements and the elements cannot develop from other factors. Research of whether there once existed other group of people that contributed to the spread other than buried here is also vital to justify the author's idea. The accurate level of standard and elements in bones that founded are also necessary.