issue184 即考求拍

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Issue184 It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data


As is known to all, accurate data could imply the correctness of a theory it should also be pointed out that not all theories are based on data, and the combination of data and other factors would bring about the emergence of many wise and insightful theories.
Admittedly, data is the carrier of the theory, based on it , we can make analyzing, reasoning, inducing and concluding, and finally give birth to theories. During this process, researcher is inclined to dig out the data and facts that lend credit to his theory and neglect the data which refutes it. Take the field of meteorology for example, scientists make some records of how the weather changes every month, every day, even every minutes in order to find the orderliness of the movement of synoptic system, and then analyze the possible change of weather.
Since the testing year is long enough and the conclusion is based on its average move line, the result becomes credible. In a word, necessary data are essential for our research, without it theories are voluntary to personal proneness and desires, thus the result amounts to
nothing but pure imagination
However, not all theories are brought by exact data. Keen observation and bold assumptions are the key factors of making many far-reaching theories. Actually, some theories are born as assumptions, and substantiated with data afterward. Hawking's theory of the world's origin can be an apt illustration for this point. Because the condition of experiments doesn't allow substantial data to support it, he testified his theory theoretically. Despite of this, what he stated is wildly acknowledged in scientific world. We believe that there will be one day when scientists find out clues and persuasive data, even can be written in our textbooks as a truth of explaining the formulation of universe. In short, if one gets no data, surely he will take high risk to theorize, but it's the wit and courage that truly contribute to make great discoveries.


In these case , we must be wary of standing on an extreme side: continuing to acquire data instead of giving out a theory timely. If we take it for granted that people cannot theorize until the data is ready, then scholars will probably postpone theorizing forever. What we should do is to make good use of the data available along with our own creativity to put forwards theories, and work on collecting data to prove them. Just like what Wenger did. Inspired by the world map, Wenger found that the main continents' edge could match roughly Hence,he assumed that continents drifted from the original big chunk to their current position, and proposed the continental drift theory afterwards. Years later, he founded the animals and plants are similar between the matched continental edges which support his theory strongly. At present time, in this fast development society, it is more important for us to take timely action to solve problems other than waiting for collecting all data.
  In sum, while we pay attention to the indispensable role data play, processes such as careful reasoning and creative thinking should never be ignored. If we can combine the application of data and the generation of assumptions together ,we are more likely to build up a correct theory.