Argument45 【☆09GRE作文冲刺组】swbai2月25日作文

swbaiUID: 2600532

题目：ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
字数：432          用时：0:39:15          日期：2009-2-25
In this newsletter the editor of the wildlife journal, recommends that the decline of arctic deer population is due to the global warming. To support this recommendation, the editor cites the following facts about arctic deer: (1) the report of local hunters report that the deer population is declining; (2) recent global trends which caused the sea ice to melt happened coincidely. Close scrutiny of each of two facts, however, reveals that none of them lead to credible support to the recommendation.

First, the report of local hunters does not necessarily indicate that the population of arctic deer is really declining. Perhaps the local hunters are lazy than ever that they seldom go outside to hunt the deer in the cruel winter, so the time they meet the deer is to little. For that matter, perhaps the report of local hunters is just for money without responsibility. In short, without ruling out other possible reasons for the report of local hunters the editor cannot convince me on the basis of them that the population of arctic deer is declining.

Secondly, even if recent global warming trends have caused the sea ice to melt coincidely, yet the newsletter contains no evidence to support this assumption. Lacking such evidence it is equally possible that local sea ice have not ever melt irregularly in recent decades. In fact, perhaps the local sea ice simply remained the same despite of the melt of ice in other places, and do not affect the living standard of arctic deer.

Thirdly, the population of arctic deer is declining, while the sea ice is melting is little indication that because of the age-old migration patterns breaks that caused the decline of population. There are other facts which can cause the population decline. Perhaps the weather is becoming so hot that deers prefer not to have babies. Or perhaps with the development of technology, the hunters are more easily to get arctic deers, and sell many deer meet in the market. Besides, academic disease is a key effect to the health of deers. Moreover, lacking of food may be a factor that causes the decline of population.

In sum, the recommendation relies on certain doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as it stands. To bolster the recommendation the editor must provide clear evidence--perhaps by a way of local survey or study--that the sea ice is really melt or not. To better assess the recommendation, I would need to know how does the report of local hunters generated. I would also need to know the relation between local ice melting and global warming.