ARGUMENT235【0906G背水一战三月小组】第1次作业 By fireofnight

fireofnightUID??2447280

In this argument, the manager points out that the older people in the listening area has become larger in size but the amount of total listeners has recently declined. He also points out that the sales at the music store in the area are selling less recorded music, In addition, the manager reasons that the news station in the neighboring cities have been doing success business as well as demonstrates a survey showing people in the town are becoming more interested about politics. On the basis of these lines of reasoning, the manager concludes that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from R&R music to a continuous news format. This argumentcontains several logical flaws, which render it unconvincing.
第一短还有待好好琢磨一下，有些长，迟一点在改

...  大家往死里拍吧
A threshold problem with the argument involves the manager provides no evidence that indicates direct cause-and-effect relation between the increasing number of older people and the decreasing number of listeners. Lacking such explanation, this example fails to convince me that the people in the town turn to love politics programs more. Itis entirely possible that the older people in the area do not have hate R&R music but actually love it and they were listening to it since their teen ages while the young people in the city are actually moving out since they are at the very age that needs to move around for experience. In that case, the total number of people in the area decreases which leads the listeners to become less.

The argument also assumes unfairly that the decreasing sale of recorded music is caused by the increasing interest inpolitics issues. The manager ignores a host of other possible explanations for this phenomenon. It is entirely possible such decrease in sales is due to recession of economics or the recorded music are showing worse quality recently on the shelf. Moreover, less sale of recorded music does not necessarily indicate that people are showing interest in politics. On the contradict,people might be switching to love live music at this period, or even, the manager might be pleased to hear, people become more attracted by the music radio programs. Without ruling out all these possibilities, the manager can not convince me switching from R&R music to political programs is beneficial.

Even if we assume the above mentioned are quite convincing, the points raised by the manager that a news station in the neighboring cities having been very successful and survey taken before the election are unjustified examples. The success of a news station in a nearby town cannot apply as a prototype on the KNOW station for the reason that the people's interests in the nearby city could be quite divergent from what people in the current town love or there is already some other news station exists in current area for a long while so that setting up a new one does not necessary mean success. In the other hand, the survey taken before election could be biased on reflecting people's real interest since, during which period, people would normally show more fervor on political issues.

In sum, the manager's argument is unpersuasive as it stands. To strength it, we need statistic data on varianceof total amount of people. Te better assess the argument, a marketing analysis would be needed for detail reasoning of decreasing sales on recorded music. I would also need the information of other radio stations in the SAME area and a survey that is general enough to illustrate the common taste(at least other period of election)in that area.



早上起来赶得，大家往死里拍






上班去了



组长给我个号儿吧~~


谢谢

justdoit!UID??2533175

好长的A啊！

justdoit!UID??2533175

好长啊，逻辑和语言都有待提高啊，加油！

yunfeiyang4everUID??2604917

写在前面：作者的文章小弟觉得很不错，看了好几遍，逻辑和语言个人感觉都很好！

In this argument, the manager points out that the older people in the listening area has become larger in size but the amount of total listeners has recently declined. He also points out that the sales at the music store in the area are selling less recorded music, In addition, the manager reasons that the news station in the neighboring cities have been doing success business as well as demonstrates a survey showing people in the town are becoming more interested about politics. On the basis of these lines of reasoning, the manager concludes that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from R&R music to a continuous news format. This argument contains several logical flaws, which render it unconvincing. (第一段确实有点长，基本上把所有的细节都摆上了，其实我个人觉得不用说的那么具体，把大致情况说明白就行了，像in the listening area之类的修饰可以省去)

A threshold problem with the argument involves the manager provides no evidence that indicates direct cause-and-effect relation between the increasing number of older people and the decreasing number of listeners. Lacking such explanation, this example fails to convince me that the people in the town turn to love politics programs more. It is entirely possible that the older people in the area do not have hate R&R music but actually love it and they were listening to it since their teen ages while the young people in the city are actually moving out since they are at the very age that needs to move around for experience. In that case, the total number of people in the area decreases which leads the listeners to become less.

The argument also assumes unfairly that the decreasing sale of recorded music is caused by the increasing interest in politics issues. The manager ignores a host of other possible explanations for this phenomenon. It is entirely possible such decrease in sales is due to recession of economics or the recorded music are(is替换) showing worse quality recently on the shelf. Moreover, less sale of recorded music does not necessarily indicate that people are showing interest in politics. On the contradict, people might be switching to love live music at this period, or even, the manager might be pleased to hear, people become more attracted by the music radio programs. Without ruling out all these possibilities, the manager can not convince me switching from R&R music to political programs is beneficial.

Even if we assume the above mentioned are quite convincing, the points raised by the manager that a news station in the neighboring cities having been very successful and survey taken before the election are unjustified examples. The success of a news station in a nearby town cannot apply as a prototype on the KNOW station for the reason that the people's interests in the nearby city could be quite divergent from what people in the current town love or there is already some other news station exists in current area for a long while so that setting up a new one does not necessary mean success. In the other hand, the survey taken before election could be biased on reflecting people's real interest since, during which period; people would normally show more fervor on political issues.

In sum, the manager's argument is unpersuasive as it stands. To strength it, we need statistic data on variance of total amount of people. Te better assess the argument, a marketing analysis would be needed for detail reasoning of decreasing sales on recorded music. I would also need the information of other radio stations in the SAME area and a survey that is general enough to illustrate the common taste(at least other period of election)in that area.

总结一下吧，标准的5段式，除了开头比较长外，中间论述的三段把主要错误都找出来了，而且说理挺清楚的，结尾段是标准的建议式，结构清晰
再说说语言方面，中间论述的三段个人觉得长句偏多，最好是长短结合（蓝色标出的是超长句）

小弟我能力真是有限，如果哪里说的不对请你见谅哈！