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101. The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that makes breakfast cereals.
"In a recent study, subjects who ate soybeans at least five times per week had significantly lower cholesterol levels than subjects who ate no soy products. By fortifying our Wheat-O cereal with soy protein, we can increase sales by appealing to additional consumers who are concerned about their health. This new version of Wheat-O should increase company profits and, at the same time, improve the health of our customers."
在最近的一次调查中,那些每周至少吃五次大豆的调查对象的胆固醇值比不吃大豆制品的人低很多。通过在我们的Wheat-O麦片中添加大豆蛋白,我们可以通过吸引更多的关注自身健康的消费者来增加销量。这种新的Wheat-O应该能够增加公司的利润,并且同时促进我们消费者的健康。
The memo above might make sense in some case, however, if we drew a more specific look, we would find that there were still, a few flaws in logic. For one thing, the study itself from which the president of the cereal company get the conclusion was unconvincible, let alone the idea of increasing company's profit and meanwhile improving the customers' health condition.% p$
As mentioned above, for a study to be truthful and accurate, it must be designed to have a balance between the exprimental and the control groups. However apparently, the study above failed to acknowledge us with anything in detail about the studied groups, such as age, gender, smoking and drinking habits, etc.. Imagine the conducted groups were composed by people from different ages, all the people within who ate soybeans were teens while who ate no soy were over 50s, the investigation might draw a similar result, in spite of the impact of the soybeans, as well. For the same reason, if the ones who were used to eat soy were also frequent guests of gyms and tended to have some workout several times per week, the hobby of taking exercise would too, be an element distributing to a more healthy condition.7 X8 }0 u9 }: |5 |' {& \
Even if the study on which the president based his conclusion was representive, the link between the soybean-added cereal and a more impressive profit still remains rather feeble. It is common sense that when a consumer is wandering along the shelves full of breakfast of every kind, she/he is more likely to choose what her/his family will be eating based on the provided nurtrient besides the flavor and taste of the cereal. Accordingly, with a better and more balanced nurtrition diagram yet a very hideous taste, the new cereal product may be posssibly not as popular as the president thought it would be., K; V& \4 n" [. z
Nevertheless, let's assume even after fortifying with soy protein, the Wheat-O still tastes pretty good, or just normal, the whole plan will not be 100% assured to lead to a profit increase. True, that the company may meet a larger market, and in turn sell out more of its products, thus earn more gain. But we should also put the cost of production under consideration. Perhaps in order to somehow attain enough soy protein, and fortify them with the Wheat-O at a proper amount so that the consumer will be having as much the nurtrition as those who eat soybean directly, the company will pay a fortune on related experiments. In this case, the income will simply be paying for the output, the company's profit will remain unchaged or even be decreased.
Finally, there were several more minor errors that I didn't take into account which might also cause trouble. For instance, how much soybean it was if a person ate it 5 times a week? 10 grams at a time or just 1? 9 _4 V2 l) V/ u( o+ e: }' X, z* b
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To sum up, the president made a mistake to base his conclusion on a dubious study which needed improving in so many aspects. In addition, if he wants to sound more convincible, he may try to provide a clearer market research with more information in detail.
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