ARGUMENT41 第一次写跪求拍砖啊

liurenjieUID：3577941

41.(assumptions)
1.A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent. Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of bicycle-related accidents has increased 200 percent.
2.These results demonstrate that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets, and they take more risks as a result.  
3.Thus, to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents, the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets.
1.首先质疑调查的可信度（样本容量，是否有代表性，事故数量增加有其他原因）
2.即使调查可信，并没有直接证据证明他们觉得安全所以他们会take risk
3.就算上述结论属实，也不代表事故上升是因为带安全帽,如果是因为带安全帽又怎么证明教育民众是有效果的
  
  It seems logical, at the first glance, to agree with the argument in a health newsletter that the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents. However, the recommendation relies on a series of unsubstantiated assumptions, which is rife with holes and assumptions, and thus, render it unconvincing as it stands.
  According to the argument, the author cited the statistics from a nationwide study, which is believed true and valid, of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling. The study claimed that approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent. Only can we know is the study’s result. The arguer firstly assume that the quantity of the sample is definitely sufficient .However, the quantity we have got is only the reported one, which means a large amount of samples have not been involved in such invalid study.The other assumption the argument is based on is that the respondents are fully representative. But the sample may conduct those who cannot afford to buy helmets while ten years later, it can ask those who has already owned helmets. The survey may have been ten pages long, with two questions dedicated to helmets. The information we should be provided, unfortunately, is exactly we do not know.
  Even if the study is fully representative, valid and reliable, there is another study which suggest that during the same ten-year period, the number of bicycle-related accidents has increased 200 percent. The unstated assumption is that the population of the nation has never changed. But as we all know, the population today is much more numerous than the one ten years ago. This undeniable fact makes the assumption nonetheless. The 200 percent of number increase can represent nothing. And because of this, no evidence can be used to confirm the demonstration that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets, and they take more risks as a result. Quite the contrary, the bicyclists wearing helmets may be more careful than the ones who wear no helmets.
  Although the two above studies may be true in some cases, it cannot indicate that wearing helmets contributes to the increase of accidents. Larger amount of vehicles hitting on the road mostly results in this situation. Drivers’ improper operation can also leads to it. Even though I concede that the reason of increase is wearing helmets, no such evidence can prove that educating people about bicycle safety is certainly useful. A convincing survey must be proceeded to claim that education is indeed a useful option.
  Consequently, a decreasing number of traffic accidents is whole citizens’ hope. In order to achieve this purpose, nation government may decide to devote much more efforts to further studies, which can find out what measures can truly handle this problem instead of the studies based on assumptions filling with holes.