14年秋季提纲互改小组-argument 3

lisa_CUID：2678347

ARGUMENT3
The following appeared as a letter to the editor from a Central Plaza store owner.
Over the past two years, the number of shoppers in Central Plaza has been steadily decreasing while the popularity of skateboarding has increased dramatically. Many Central Plaza store owners believe that the decrease in their business is due to the number of skateboard users in the plaza. There has also been a dramatic increase in the amount of litter and vandalism throughout the plaza. Thus, we recommend that the city prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza. If skateboarding is prohibited here, we predict that business in Central Plaza will return to its previously high levels.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

Claim:
The city should prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza.

Evidence:
1.        The number of shops in Central Plaza has decreased
2.        The number of skateboard users in the plaza has increased
3.        The amount of litter and vandalism has increased

Warrant:
1.        The decrease of the number of shops in Central Plaza is caused by popularity of skateboarding in plaza
2.        The increased skateboarding is harmful to the business in the plaza
3.        The litter and vandalism are left by skateboard players

In the letter, the Central Plaza store owner suggests to prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza to revive the business in this area simply because of his believe that  the weak performance of the business to the popularity of skateboarding. But close scrutiny of all his evidence provided, it reveals that his argument is full with flaws and many questions should be answered before he make his suggestion reliable.

全文
The key question be answered is the real reason that lead to decrease of shops in Central Plaza should be clarified. While it is true that many it seems like the decrease of the number of shoppers in Central Plaza and the increase of the number of skateboard users both happened in the past two years, it is too hasty to conclude that popularity of skateboard leads to poor performance of business there. Perhaps the performance of whole economy is in depression, not only in Central Plaza but other in other areas of the country. To better analysis the causality of the phenomenon, a market survey about shops in Central Plaza can be organized. Otherwise even though skateboarding is prohibited, there will be no help for the revival of the business.

Moreover, why more skateboard players appear in Central Plaza should also be answered. Perhaps it is because there will be a national skateboard game held in Central Plaza, and thus many players just come to prepare for the game. For that matter, prohibiting skateboarding is unreasonable. And even perhaps, the truth is that the decrease of numbers of shops in Central Plaza attracts fewer customers to the plaza and thus makes it a good playground to play skateboard. Unless more information provided to help understand the popularity of skateboard in Central Plaza, it is too hasty to prohibit skateboarding and it may cause other problems if simply prohibiting skateboarding there.

Another question should be answered is whether skateboard players should be blamed for the increase of litter and vandalism. There are many other possible explanations for increase of waste in the plaza. One possible explanation is that because of poor performance in business, the property management center decide to cut down the number of cleaners. Without more information provided, shop owners of Central Plaza may make a biased conclusion simply based on their guess.

One more question should be answered is whether the popularity of skateboarding can benefit the business in Central Plaza. Shop owners keep blaming about skateboard players, but why they don’t try to take advantage of it. For example, the shop owners can keep in pace with the trend and start to sell equipment of skateboarding, which may bring them enormous profit. To prohibit skateboarding may lose potential benefit from it. Unless it is confirmed that the overall influence of the popularity of skateboarding in this area is negative to the business, the suggestion is reliable.

In sum, since information provided is not sufficient to support the conclusion that prohibiting skateboard will make business in Central Plaza return to its previously high levels, the owners should try to collect more data and evidence from professional and valid market survey, try to understand the causality and potential benefit of skateboarding in Central Plaza and try to know what cause the plaza in dirty. Without clarifying all the questions mentions, it is suspect that whether his suggestion will lead to predicted result.

错别字
Skatebording -> skateboarding
Overal -> overall
Benefit->benefit
Suspectable->suspect

lisa_CUID：2678347

tesolchina 发表于 2014-10-24 19:22
ARGUMENT3
The following appeared as a letter to the editor from a Central Plaza store owner.
Ove ...

开头是In the letter开始哈（标错了sorry>_<），这篇试着限时写得比较急后面的文章尽量自己改过之后发上来，ARGUMENT感觉现在还比较难抓条理，问题类的之前练得不多，自己比较难发现自己的问题，看王老师点评每次都受益匪浅。

去看了王老师的范文，几点感悟：
（1）从王老师这学到不少新表达，写ARGU的时候总是颠来倒去的perhaps自己都觉得好烦哈哈。譬如
It may be safe to say...
It is not fair to assume..
Again等等
（2）条理方面把最重要的问题放在前面，说的时候都偏向采用贴近提干要求的方式
（3）语法是个问题，我学一下老师提问的写法^^

把修改后的全文也贴上来

---------------------------------
ARGUMENT3
The following appeared as a letter to the editor from a Central Plaza store owner.
Over the past two years, the number of shoppers in Central Plaza has been steadily decreasing while the popularity of skateboarding has increased dramatically. Many Central Plaza store owners believe that the decrease in their business is due to the number of skateboard users in the plaza. There has also been a dramatic increase in the amount of litter and vandalism throughout the plaza. Thus, we recommend that the city prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza. If skateboarding is prohibited here, we predict that business in Central Plaza will return to its previously high levels.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

修改版

In the letter, the Central Plaza store owner suggests that skateboarding should be prohibitted in Central Plaza to revive the business in this area, and this suggestion is simply based on his guess that  the weak performance of the business to the popularity of skateboarding. But close scrutiny of all his evidence provided, it reveals that his argument is full with flaws and many further questions should be answered.

To begin with, one key question we need to know is why the number of shops in Central Plaza decreased. Correlation does not equal to causality, and thus the decrease of the number of shoppers in Central Plaza is not necessarily due to the increase of the number of skateboard users there. Perhaps the performance of whole economy is in depression, not only in Central Plaza but also in other areas of the country. And even perhaps, the truth is that the decrease of numbers of shops in Central Plaza attracts fewer customers to the plaza and thus makes it a good playground to play skateboard. What's more, another question we need to clarify is how the customers feel about skateboarding. Maybe customers enjoy time watching skateboarding, and thus more customers are attracted by skateboarding. If so, it might be a mistake to drive away skateboard players. To better analysis the causality of the phenomenon, a professional market survey about shops in Central Plaza can be organized. Otherwise, even though skateboarding is prohibited, there will be no help for the revival of the business.

In addition, we need to know more about whether skateboard players should be blamed for the increase of litter and vandalism. There are many other possible explanations for increase of waste in the plaza. One possible explanation is that because of poor performance in business, the property management center decided to cut down the number of janitors. Or perhaps other groups that are also active in Central Plaza threw wastes and destroyed equipments. Without more information provided, shop owners of Central Plaza may make a biased conclusion simply based on the evidence cited.

Moreover, questions about whether it is feasible to prohibit the skateboarding and what would happen after prohibition should also not be neglected. Perhaps a national skateboard game will be held in Central Plaza, and many players just come to prepare for the game. For that matter, prohibiting skateboarding will cause wide complain. Or it is quite possible that when skateboard players leave Central Plaza, other groups like dancers will occupy the ground, which may cause new problems. Unless more information provided to help understand the popularity of skateboard in Central Plaza, it is too hasty to make a decision.

Finally, one more question that should be answered is whether the popularity of skateboarding can benefit the business in Central Plaza. While shop owners now keep blaming about skateboard players, we need to know whether the popularity of skateboarding can create new business opportunities that would be lost as a result of the proposed prohibition. For example, the shop owners can keep in pace with the trend and start to sell equipment of skateboarding, which may bring them enormous profit. Unless it is confirmed that the overall influence of the popularity of skateboarding in this area is negative to the business, the suggestion is reliable.

In sum, since information provided is not sufficient to support the conclusion that prohibiting skateboard will make business in Central Plaza return to its previously high levels, the owners should try to collect more data and evidence from professional and valid market survey, try to understand the causality and potential benefit of skateboarding in Central Plaza and try to know what cause the plaza in dirty and disorder. Without clarifying all the questions mentioned above, it is suspect that whether his suggestion will lead to predicted result.

--------------------------------
PS, 终于修改完了，修改好费时间>_<给自己加把油~

lisa_CUID：2678347

tesolchina 发表于 2014-10-25 23:59
修改版

我一般建议写全文之前先列提纲 和issue一样 写一个thesis statement和三个 topic sentences然后 ...

好的，我下一篇先从提纲开始，多谢王老师意见，确实觉得ARGU还没太找到理出条理的感觉

1. 紧扣INSTRUCTION这点需要提高
2. 论点展开需要加强


昨天晚上刚写完一篇ARGU32跟在版上，顺便求王老师修改


这是再修改后的

ARGUMENT3
The following appeared as a letter to the editor from a Central Plaza store owner.
Over the past two years, the number of shoppers in Central Plaza has been steadily decreasing while the popularity of skateboarding has increased dramatically. Many Central Plaza store owners believe that the decrease in their business is due to the number of skateboard users in the plaza. There has also been a dramatic increase in the amount of litter and vandalism throughout the plaza. Thus, we recommend that the city prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza. If skateboarding is prohibited here, we predict that business in Central Plaza will return to its previously high levels.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

全文
In the letter, the Central Plaza store owner suggests that skateboarding should be prohibited in Central Plaza to revive the business in this area, and this suggestion is simply based on his guess that the weak performance of the business to the popularity of skateboarding. But to make his argument credible, questions about what caused depressed business, real reason of the increase of litter and vandalism, the feasibility and possible consequences of this measure, and whether there is any potential profit from skateboarding.
主旨：为使结论可信，关于什么引起生意差、什么引起垃圾破坏多、措施可行性和可能后果、是否有可挖掘商机的问题需要回答

论点一：需要回答什么是引起生意差的真正原因。
（生意差和玩滑板的人多虽然同时发生，却并不一定是后者导致前者。有很多其他可能原因。譬如整个经济低谷，不仅仅CP生意差，其他商场生意也差。譬如有新商场开在附近吸引了客流。很可能反而是因为别的原因导致CP生意差，空旷的场地引来玩滑板的人。另外需要知道人们对滑板的态度，可能有没有人在玩滑板并不影响顾客会不会来购物）
To begin with, one key question we need to know is why the number of shops in Central Plaza decreased. Correlation does not equal to causality, and thus the decrease of the number of shoppers in Central Plaza is not necessarily due to the increase of the number of skateboard users there. Perhaps the performance of whole economy is in depression, not only in Central Plaza but also in other malls of the city. （这里把areas of the country修改成malls of the city可以吗？） Or perhaps a new mall near Central Plaza is just finished, many customers are attracted by new shops with better service. So it is entirely possible that the decrease of numbers of shops in Central Plaza attracts fewer customers to the plaza and thus makes it a good playground to play skateboard. What's more, another question we need to clarify is how the customers feel about skateboarding. Maybe whether customers will come to Central Plaza or not will not influenced by the people who playing skateboard there. If so, it is not necessary to drive away skateboard players. To better analyze the causality of the phenomenon, a professional market survey about shops in Central Plaza can be organized. Otherwise, even though skateboarding is prohibited, there will be no help for the revival of the business.

论点二：需要回答什么引起脏乱和破坏。
（未必是玩滑板的人应该对这个问题负责，可能有其他原因。譬如后勤服务公司投入管理的经费和人力变少。譬如别的团体进行破坏。）
In addition, we need to know more about whether skateboard players should be blamed for the increase of litter and vandalism. There are many other possible explanations for increase of waste in the plaza. One possible explanation is that because of poor performance in business, the property management center decided to cut down the number of janitors. Or perhaps other groups that are also active in Central Plaza threw wastes and destroyed equipment. If the increase of litter and vandalism is not caused by skateboarding, prohibiting it will fail to improve environment in Central Plaza. Without more information provided, shop owners of Central Plaza may make a biased conclusion simply based on the evidence cited.

论点三：需要回答到底滑板到底能不能得到禁止，禁止之后会发生什么。
（可能玩滑板的大多是不听话的小孩子，一方面需要投入大量人力劝退，一方面在劝退过程中小孩子很容易受惊哭闹，吓走更多顾客。即使劝退了玩滑板的人，也可能有别的类型的玩家继续占用场地吵闹）
Moreover, questions about whether it is feasible to prohibit the skateboarding and what would happen after prohibition should also not be neglected. Perhaps most skateboard players are naughty kids, they have no sense of obeying rules. To prohibiting it, mall manager have to hire many security guards to persuade kids to leave. Kids will easily be scared to cry, driving away more customers. Or it is quite possible that when skateboard players leave Central Plaza, other groups like dancers will occupy the ground, which may cause new problems. Unless more information provided to answer the questions about feasibility and possible results of this measure, it is too hasty to make a decision.

论点四：需要回答滑板运动有没有可以挖掘的商机。
（如果商家可以从中获益，譬如购入滑板装备进行销售，大可不必驱赶玩滑板的人）
Finally, one more question that should be answered is whether the popularity of skateboarding can benefit the business in Central Plaza. While shop owners now keep blaming about skateboard players, we need to know whether the popularity of skateboarding can create new business opportunities that would be lost as a result of the proposed prohibition. For example, the shop owners can keep in pace with the trend and start to sell equipment of skateboarding, which may bring them enormous profit. Unless it is confirmed that the overall influence of the popularity of skateboarding in this area is negative to the business, the suggestion is reliable.

结论
In sum, since information provided is not sufficient to support the conclusion that prohibiting skateboard will make business in Central Plaza return to its previously high levels, the owners should try to collect more data and evidence from professional and valid market survey, try to understand the causality and potential benefit of skateboarding in Central Plaza and try to know what cause the plaza in dirty and disorder. Without clarifying all the questions mentioned above, it is suspect that whether his suggestion will lead to predicted result.


错别字
analysis->analyze
prohibitted ->prohibited
Skatebording -> skateboarding
Overal -> overall
Benefit->benefit
Suspectable->suspect

lisa_CUID：2678347

tesolchina 发表于 2014-10-27 21:57
这个版本挺好 感觉第四个点略嫌牵强

回头把第四点删了，一开始想放在第一段一起说，觉得不妥就扔到最后一段了，多谢王老师！