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―――题目argument117―――
The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.
"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."
-----正文-----
写作思路:
1. Survey是否可信?survey类的那一大堆。
2. If survey可信,那由take work home就一定能得出take machines home吗?
3. 即使take machine home,那Valu-Mart就一定能盈利吗?―――――有两个possibility. A:本地还有卖同类产品的company. 顾客不一定到valu-mart 来买!(卖出的产品数量) B: author未考虑cost的问题!(差价问题)
First, the reliability of the survey is problematic. Secondly, the argument assumes a causal relationship. In addition, the argument fails to examine alternative explanations.
In weighing the soundness of the survey, one must consider the integrity and honesty of the respondents. While the author say nothing about the relationship between the respondents and the surveyor, it is possible that the respondents provide the expected answers which automatically lead to the survey results. Besides, one must also consider how the survey was conducted. If the questions were intrinsically designed in favor of the expected survey results, we could not accept the author’s conclusion. Depending on the total number and the working place of the respondents, the 70% mentioned in the argument is also open to question. It is possible that most of these respondents come from the same company which requires the employees to take more work home while most other companies do not. Such factors all could explain the survey results well and undermine the reliability of the survey.
Even if the survey result is believable, the argument is still questionable. The author takes it for granted that the respondents who take more work home will take the home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines home. It might be the situation that these respondents already have the machines for daily use their homes and therefore, they need not to take the machines home at all or they take other necessary tools home. In this case, the author’s suggestion that Valu-Mart should increase the stock of home office machines is absurd.
Even if all the above assumptions by author are true, the author has insufficient evidence to suggest that all Valu-Mart stores should increase the stocks of these machines. Instead, he should consider where the respondents mainly come from.
The author also fails to consider other factors that influence the profit of Valu-Mart. It is entirely possible that there are many corporations in the same area which also sell the similar products whose quality is much higher. Thus, the customers are inclined to purchase such machines elsewhere but not in ValuMart. On the other hand, the author should also consider the cost per piece of these machines as well as the temporary prices of them. All these things considered, the author’s conclusion that Valu-Mart’s office supply department will become the most profitable components of their stores is groundless.
To sum up, the argument has several flaws though it seems logical at first. The argument could be persuasive by demonstrate that the respondents needs those machines to finish the work taken home. It could be more convincing by ruling out other possibilities for the expected profit in Valu-Mat.
[ Last edited by hustzwj on 2005-7-29 at 11:21 ] |
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