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本帖最后由 tesolchina 于 2015-5-14 22:18 编辑
60.
The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
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Conclusion: the demand for heating oil will increase and thus recommend investment in Consolidated Industries
Reason: ①Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating.
②Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years.
③many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth.
Outline: the first underlined assumption is that most homes won’t change their custom of using oil to heat their homes. This author presents no detailed evidence to support this assumption. Technology enables citizens to use other material. Example.
The second assumption is that the cold winter pattern will continue for several years. A: the intrinsic character of weather forecast makes this assumption controversial. Example (weather report can make wrong about whether it will rain tomorrow, neither less to say in several more years.) B(acceded A): 90 days below-normal temperatures may not be a really long enough period of extremely cold weather. Example.
The third assumption is new homes under building will lead more citizens and thus more homes to be heated. However, new houses does not definitely increase the pupolation. A: the author does not mention the specific application of these houses. They can be used for holiday only. B: few people would like to buy these homes for fear of the cold weather. What’s more, it also assumes that people will continually use the same amount of oil. Technology can find more efficient way which won’t cost that much oil. Thermal technology.
specific application of these houses表达
2015.5.11 Revised version
The argument concludes that the demand for heating oil in Northeastern United States will increase in future based on two assumptions which are the long-lasting winter and the population growth resulted from new homes in the region. The author thus suggests investment in Consolidated Industries. After close scrutiny, the assumptions stated in the argument are untenable for the author to bring about such recommendation.
suggests investment- recommend
the assumptions stated in the argument are untenable 你去看看我的博客关于argument的讲解 以及和老G的不同 入门系列也有讲
The author states the traditional way of heating displays the first underlined assumption that is most homes won’t change their custom of using oil to heat their homes. Only under this assumption will the investment in an oil-making industry make sense. However, the author presents no detailed evidence to support this assumption. Citizens living in Northeastern area could have several reasons to change the material. As we all know, the emission of CO2 while burning oil is regarded universally as the contribution to global warming. Scientists all over the world have worked on finding alternative fuel for several years. If new technology enables citizens to use other material which is more environmental-friendly than oil, most likely, citizens would start using the alternative material, such as solar energy, air-conditioning, etc. Under this condition, investment on oil-making industry would become an unjustified decision.
The author states the traditional way of heating displays the first underlined assumption that is most homes won’t change their custom of using oil to heat their homes.严重语法问题 请往https://bbs.gter.net/thread-1826774-1-2.html
air-conditioning为什么能和solar energy 并列
你前面扯全球变暖我觉得有点偏 直接说他们可能用其他能源 然后对heating oil需求会减少 然后销量和价格都会下跌 影响利润
后面这几点你都没讲 感觉是舍本逐末啊
另外 你不要老想着反驳
argument不是要驳倒对方 而是指出需要检查什么assumption 你不要你上来就说人家的assumption不对 要尽快摆脱老G思维
Besides, the author assumes that the cold winter pattern will continue for several years. This assumption is unpersuasive because of the intrinsic character of the weather forecaster. A weather report can only tell people the possibility of a kind of weather happening in the future. Unfortunately, the weather forecaster often makes mistake, for example, whether it will rain tomorrow. As a result, it would be hasty to believe in a weather forecaster which predicts the temperature in several more years. Furthermore, the author implicates that 90 days is a long period for winter which perhaps based on the fact that 90-day is one fourth of a year, whereas, the definition of cold weather is not scientific enough. The author only states that the 90 days temperatures were below-normal temperatures. What is normal temperature? Is it the average temperature calculated based on the statistics of the whole year? If so, the author should notice the fact that since the temperatures are higher in summer than winter, it is quite normal that during winter time, the region will experience with below-average temperatures. Moreover, the author does not mention the average duration of winter in that region. Maybe, it is quite common for a region in northern area to suffer a 90-day winter. For instance, Moscow’s winter starts from October and ends in April which lasts more than 180 days a year. Hence, this assumption is, again, not well-reasoned and unacceptable.
Furthermore, the author implicates that 90 days is a long period for winter which perhaps based on the fact that 90-day is one fourth of a year, whereas, the definition of cold weather is not scientific enough.这句话问题多多
What is normal temperature? Is it the average temperature calculated based on the statistics of the whole year? If so, the author should notice the fact that since the temperatures are higher in summer than winter, it is quite normal that during winter time, the region will experience with below-average temperatures.你竟然能扯到夏天
你竟然能扯到莫斯科
你这段废掉了
The third potential assumption is that new building homes will surely lead more citizens and thus more homes to be heated. However, the author does not mention the specific application of these houses. Considering that the weather is probably cool and comfortable in northern area, people would like to spend a cooler summer in this place. Let us take a look at the following representative instance. Many rich people living in Miami decide to spend their summer time in Alaska for the weather there is more moderate and pleasant. Consequently, the new houses can be used for holiday only. What’s more, it is entirely possible that few people would like to buy these homes for fear of the cold weather. Under both condition, the population that need to heat their homes in winter do not increase. On the other hand, the author also assumes that people will continually use the same amount of oil in the future which may not come true for more developed technology can make the oil burning in a more efficient way. Plus, new thermal technology can prevent too much heat loss.
你提到的房子用作度假 也勉强算一个点 但只能略提一下
首先一个基本的问题就是房子建了卖不卖的出去啊
In sum, the recommendation is not prudent enough for the assumptions are inflammatory and misleading. In order to make it logically convincing and acceptable, the writer should have proposed more luculent and persuasive reasons and excluded the effects of other factors that could have lessened the validity of his assumptions.
678 words, 50 mins
你写这么长干啥啊 考场上只有30分钟 你要限制自己25分钟内写完
这篇之前写过两遍,这次写是按照王老师的思路,重点关注了题目的具体要求来写的,因为没限时间,所以写的好多好长T_T还想请王老师指导一下考试的时候,文中哪些部分是可以删掉的。
自我评价句式多变方面目前根本没有能力做到,只是按我现有的水平写的,今后会在这方面再努力。 |
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