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------摘要------
作者:寄托家园作文版普通用户 共用时间:30分53秒 509 words
从2005年6月25日10时26分到2005年6月25日10时30分
------题目------
The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
'An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism.'
------正文------
In this argument, the arguer recommends that using Ichithaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, is a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism. To substantiate the argument, the arguer cites a study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high and people are healthier. Meanwhile, to further justify the claim, the arguer points out that eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. At first glance, the argument appears to be somewhat logical. A careful examination of it, nonetheless, hardly can the reasoning be valid if only on the strength of this evidence.
To begin with, the survey is too vague to be reliable. Firstly, we were no informed that how many people were studied. It is possible that the amount of surveyed people were too small to draw a reliable conclusion. Secondly, the study cited that people could be healthier though eating more fishes, while suggestive of this, is insufficient to warrant the truth because there is no reason to believe that the samples were representative of the whole groups. Perhaps 1000 subjects were studied but no more than 10 were valid. If so, we cannot get a convincing conclusion.
In addition, the analysis draw between East Meria and West Meria are highly suspect because there are many differences. For example, maybe the weather is wetter in East Meria than in West Meria, which is suitable for people' s living. And it is also possible that the environment in East Meria is much better than in West Meria. In this case, the people in East Meria is logical healthier than in West Meria. So the mere fact that the people are healthier in East Meria is insufficient to draw the conclusion that fish can prevent colds and lower absenteeism.
Furthermore, the arguer depends on the gratuitous assumption that health is relative to eating fish. Actually, it is not necessary the case. This conclusion is groundless. The arguer fails to consider other possible reasons. For example, people in East Meria are able to practice more and have better living habits. They are careful of their own bodies. They drink less alcohol and usually go to abroud. Anyhow, they do many other things other than eating fishes. So there is no sufficient evidence to explain that health only results in eating more fishes.
Finally, the arguer thinks that people visit the doctor only once or twice per year means they are healthy, which is gratuitous. There is no necessary relevant between the two. It is likely that when people caught colds or had some indispositions, they didn’t go to see a doctor, but only take some pales at home. So the explanation is unconvincing.
To sum up, this argument is not well reasoning and lacks credibility because the evidence quoted in the analysis does not support what the arguer maintains. To make the argument more valid, the arguer needs to make more effective and representative survey such as scientific reports about the relationship between health and eating fishes, to support this argument.
[ Last edited by staralways on 2005-7-25 at 12:58 ] |
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