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Betty210
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发表于 2008-2-10 22:47:45 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

TOPIC: ARGUMENT40 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Excello Food Markets.

"In 90 towns where Excello has food markets, natural-food stores specializing in organic food products-products containing no chemical preservatives and made with foods grown without pesticides-have opened nearby as competitors. Surveys of our own customers reveal a growing concern about foods grown using pesticides or preserved with chemicals. Recently our market in Sun City participated in a local food tasting fair, and 75 percent of the fair goers who visited the Excello booth requested free samples of organic fruit. Such evidence indicates that to increase our profits, we should begin to stock a full line of organic food products in all our markets."
WORDS: 292       TIME: 00:30:00       DATE: 2008-2-10 22:16:04

At frist glance, the president's reasoning is quite sound. According to his or her conclusion, the Excello Food Markets should stock a full line of organic food products in all its markets,in order to promote its profits.But unfortunately, if we make a careful consideration of his or her evidence,doubt will cast on this conclusion.

To begin with, the president claims that the organic food products would sales well. This claim is basis on a substantiated surveys. In the first place, the result of the survey lacks credibility. In order to support the conclusion, the study's sample must be sufficient in size and representative of the overall population of Excello Food Markets' consumers.In the second place, even if the  study is statistically representative the president simply assumes that the people who concern about foods grown using pesticides or preserved with chemicals are equate to the Excello Food Markets's consumers as a group.However, no evidence is provided to show this is a case.Lacking evidence of the surveys the president's is unwarranted.

Similarly, the evidence of our market in Sun City is also unreasonable.On the one hand, the fair goers who visited the Excello booth requested free sample of organic fruit cannot infer that they buy this kind of food. It is entirely possible that they are less interest in the organic food, and they are just curious or only because of free. They need not to purchase the organic food. On the other hand, whether are the fair goers the consumers as a group of the Excello. And the present fails to tell me that aside from fruit whether the fair goers are care about other organic food. Without consider those factors the conclusion of Sun City is dubious.

Finally, the president predicts that the profits would increase if we begin to stock a full line of organic food products in all our markets. Yet common sense informs us that profitability is a function of both revenue and expense. Thus, perhaps even is the consumers are favor of organic foods the cost of this food is too high to offset the revenue. Moreover, to promote profit the company must gain the skills of producing such food, otherwise it will be kept from the market as the result .Without weighing revenue against expense and gaining the relevant skills the president’s assumption is illusory.

After pointing out so many unreasonable flaws in the argument,now we can say  that the reasons used to bolster the conclusion are unpersuasive as it stands. To strengthen it the president must inform me that the results of study is statistically representative of the whole consumers. And that organic food products would be popular in all our markets. For that matter, the more details about the increase of its profits.

2008-2-10 finished time:22:39  words:460
也就是说一共用了近一个小时 还是有进步了。今天是我的生日哟，一会要切蛋糕，许愿咯～！～！哈哈哈