Looking at how far we'll be able to fund<注2> the Health Service<注3> in the 21st century raises<注4> any number of<注5> thorny issues. Many of the options<注6> have already been rehearsed<注7> in the press<注8>: excluding some treatments from the NHS, charging for<注9> certain drugs and services, and developing voluntary or compulsory health insurance<注10> schemes<注11>.Compared to its European Union counterparts<注12> Britain operates a low-cost health system<注13>: we spend about 7 per cent of GDP<注14> on health, compared with 9 per cent in the Netherlands and 10 per cent in France and Germany. In terms of health outcomes versus spend<注15>, we compare pretty favourably<注16>.
I don't see private health care<注17> providing much of the solution to<注18> current problems. More likely is<注19> a shift from universal health coverage<注20> to top-up schemes<注21> which give people basic health entitlements<注22> but require them to finance<注23> other treatment through private financing<注24>, or opt-out schemes<注25> which use tax relief<注26> to encourage individuals to make private provision<注27>. Neither is close to being implemented, but the future could see<注28> a deliberate shift of attention to voluntary health insurance and an emphasis on social insurance.
I expect individuals to take greater responsibility for their personal health using technology that allows self-diagnosis followed by self-treatment or home care<注29>. Even so, higher taxes will plainly be needed to fund health care. I think<注30> we'll eventually see larger NHS charges<注31>, more rationing of medical services and restrictions on certain procedures<注32> without proven outcomes<注33>. Stricter eligibility criteria<注34> for certain treatments are another possibility.
All such options would mean a sharp break<注35> with tradition and political fall-out<注36> that could be extremely damaging. None of them is going to win votes for the political party desperate enough<注37> to introduce them but then nobody is going to vote for ill-health or an early death either.