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发表于 2014-12-7 20:05:45 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

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30) The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year budget for the city of Calatrava.
The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year's birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago. Thus the number of students enrolled in our public schools will soon decrease dramatically, and we can safely reduce the funds budgeted for education during the next decade. At the same time, we can reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities. As a result, we will have sufficient money to fund city facilities and programs used primarily by adults, since we can expect the adult population of the city to increase.
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

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发表于 2014-12-7 20:06:55 |只看该作者

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发表于 2015-2-2 23:39:20 |只看该作者

The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year budget for the city of Calatrava.

"The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year's birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago. Thus the number of students enrolled in our public schools will soon decrease dramatically, and we can safely reduce the funds budgeted for education during the next decade. At the same time, we can reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities. As a result, we will have sufficient money to fund city facilities and programs used primarily by adults, since we can expect the adult population of the city to increase."

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

开头段
In the recommendation, the committee proposed to curtail the budget for education and recreational facilities, to spare some money for city facilities. The proposal is mainly based on the prediction about the structural changes of population, which include the increase of adults and decrease of schoolchildren. However, to evaluate whether the proposal is tenable, we need to investigate more detailed evidence on the population changes, the needs of different people, and distribution of city funding.

ts1
Firstly, the reason why there are much less newborns last year than five years ago should be fully investigated.
首先，相比五年前，去年之所以新生儿数量急剧下降的原因值得仔细研究。这里有很多可能性，例如很多夫妇可能因为经济不景气的原因推迟生孩子的计划，如果是这样的话，十年之内的经济没有人可以预测，一旦经济向好，出生人数会大幅度增加，如果减少教育投入，很可能到那时或供不应求。也有可能是很多夫妇前往医疗条件更好的地方进行生产，但还是会回到本地生活。

ts2
Even if the population changes come true, whether to cut the budget for education should be based on the analysis of potential requirements of all the people.
即使文中所提到的人口结构的变化成为现实，我们也应该根据对所有人口的需求分析决定是否减少教育投资。例如虽然人口下降，但是家长对学生的教育更加重视，会有更多的投入，那么相应的政府投资也应该增加。另外，除了学龄儿童之外，成年人的继续教育以及老年人的晚年生活都跟教育密不可分，只有充分考虑全社会的教育需求，才能做出是否减少教育开支的决定。

ts3
Last but not least, assuming we can decrease the budget of education, we still need to consider the budget as a whole to see if we can put the spared money on city facilities and programs.
最后，即使我们可以减少教育投资，也要对整个城市对投资的各项需求进行通盘考虑。比如基本设施建设，道路，用电用水，或者民生如医疗保障，养老设施等等。只有确认city facilities的要求最为迫切，才能同意给出的提议。

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发表于 2015-2-3 21:02:01 |只看该作者

ee_stone 发表于 2015-2-2 23:39
The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year budget for the city of ...

考虑到之前同学的经验教训，建议你尽快开始计时写全文

The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year budget for the city of Calatrava.

"The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year's birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago. Thus the number of students enrolled in our public schools will soon decrease dramatically, and we can safely reduce the funds budgeted for education during the next decade. At the same time, we can reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities. As a result, we will have sufficient money to fund city facilities and programs used primarily by adults, since we can expect the adult population of the city to increase."

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

开头段
In the recommendation, the committee proposed to curtail the budget for education and recreational facilities, to spare some money for city facilities. The proposal is mainly based on the prediction about the structural changes of population, which include the increase of adults and decrease of schoolchildren. However, to evaluate whether the proposal is tenable, we need to investigate more detailed evidence on the population changes, the needs of different people, and distribution of city funding.

investigate -> collect
evidence about

作者是否完整概括主要的证据及结论？是
作者是否准确回应题目？是
作者是否概括后面要讨论的内容？是

ts1
Firstly, the reason why there are much less newborns last year than five years ago should be fully investigated.
首先，相比五年前，去年之所以新生儿数量急剧下降的原因值得仔细研究。这里有很多可能性，例如很多夫妇可能因为经济不景气的原因推迟生孩子的计划，如果是这样的话，十年之内的经济没有人可以预测，一旦经济向好，出生人数会大幅度增加，如果减少教育投入，很可能到那时或供不应求。也有可能是很多夫妇前往医疗条件更好的地方进行生产，但还是会回到本地生活。

作者提出的假设、证据或解释是否恰当？否

we need more information to predict the population growth in the next few years; data from last year and five years ago were not sufficient. We also need demographic data in the years between last years and five years ago …

You need to consider the possibility that the data from last year was an outlier.

作者提出的其他可能性是否恰当？

作者关于这种可能性的推论是否合理？

ts2
Even if the population changes come true, whether to cut the budget for education should be based on the analysis of potential requirements of all the people.
即使文中所提到的人口结构的变化成为现实，我们也应该根据对所有人口的需求分析决定是否减少教育投资。例如虽然人口下降，但是家长对学生的教育更加重视，会有更多的投入，那么相应的政府投资也应该增加。另外，除了学龄儿童之外，成年人的继续教育以及老年人的晚年生活都跟教育密不可分，只有充分考虑全社会的教育需求，才能做出是否减少教育开支的决定。

requirement —> need
the decision of whether … should be based on …
I like your suggestion that other groups also need education

At the same time, we can reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities.
you did not address this point in your outline

ts3
Last but not least, assuming we can decrease the budget of education, we still need to consider the budget as a whole to see if we can put the spared money on city facilities and programs.
最后，即使我们可以减少教育投资，也要对整个城市对投资的各项需求进行通盘考虑。比如基本设施建设，道路，用电用水，或者民生如医疗保障，养老设施等等。只有确认city facilities的要求最为迫切，才能同意给出的提议。

since we can expect the adult population of the city to increase
you need to address this premise, i.e. the adult population will increase
we need more information about the overall trend of population growth to decide if the adult population will increase
maybe the decline in birthrate was due to the fact that manny residents chose to leave the city for better job opportunities in other areas …
and you may also discuss other areas that need funding more urgently ( you did that in your outline which was good)

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6楼

发表于 2015-2-4 00:44:43 |只看该作者

The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year budget for the city of Calatrava.

"The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year's birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago. Thus the number of students enrolled in our public schools will soon decrease dramatically, and we can safely reduce the funds budgeted for education during the next decade. At the same time, we can reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities. As a result, we will have sufficient money to fund city facilities and programs used primarily by adults, since we can expect the adult population of the city to increase."

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

In the recommendation, the committee proposed to curtail the budget for education and recreational facilities, to spare some money for city facilities. The proposal is mainly based on the prediction about the structural changes of population, which includes the increase of adults and decrease of schoolchildren. However, to evaluate whether the proposal is tenable, we need to collect more detailed evidence about the trend of population changes, the needs of different people, and the priority of various aspects of city funding.

Firstly, we need more data to delineate the trend of population changes in the recent years. If one of the two sample data is an outlier, the result of comparison and further prediction is not valid. Only with the data covering the last ten or twenty years, can we really tell the population changes in next ten years with more confidence. Moreover, even if the data is valid, the reason why there are much less newborns last year than five years ago should be fully investigated. We may need to collect the status of economy, since some couples may pull off the birth of their babies due to bad economy, but will eventually have babies later on. The development of medical service should also be studied, to make sure people are not deliberately giving birth in other places where the service is better and coming home with babies right after the birth. These coming babies will weaken the argument that the number of schoolchildren will decrease.

Taking a step back, even if there are less new borns in the future, to make the decision to cut the budget of education, we still need to collect educational needs from a perspective of the whole society, rather than only considering the students in schools. Education should be open to various people, including schoolchildren, professionals, housewives and even the retired people. Through education, professionals may catch up with the latest technologies to enhance their competence in the job market, while housewives can improve the cooking skills to better take care of the family. These needs are as important as the education for children, and will increase with the predicted increasing number of adults. People may complain on the lack of government funding on these area, not mentioning the proposed cut for athletic and recreational facilities, which are commonly used by adults in their leisure time.

Last but not least, with the spared money, we'd better prioritize the issues we need to solve. City facilities are definitely one of the candidates, but there can be more emergent issues on the list. For example, traffic issues which umbrage people every day, air pollution doing harm to our health at every breadth and medical services which save lives and relieve pain, are always on the list of most concerned issues. If there is any emergent issue remaining unresolved, city facilities, which is relatively a nice to have may need to give way to other issues.

In short, the committee needs to present more demographic data to justify the prediction of population changes. Besides, study of educational needs of various people and issues faced by the city should be included to make the budget proposal more convincing.

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