- 最后登录
- 2015-12-15
- 在线时间
- 56 小时
- 寄托币
- 80
- 声望
- 105
- 注册时间
- 2015-5-23
- 阅读权限
- 20
- 帖子
- 44
- 精华
- 0
- 积分
- 237
- UID
- 3621760
 
- 声望
- 105
- 寄托币
- 80
- 注册时间
- 2015-5-23
- 精华
- 0
- 帖子
- 44
|
71. The following is a letter to the editor of the Waymarsh Times.
"Traffic here in Waymarsh is becoming a problem. Although just three years ago a state traffic survey showed that the typical driving commuter took 20 minutes to get to work, the commute now takes closer to 40 minutes, according to the survey just completed. Members of the town council already have suggested more road building to address the problem, but as well as being expensive, the new construction will surely disrupt some of our residential neighborhoods. It would be better to follow the example of the nearby city of Garville. Last year Garville implemented a policy that rewards people who share rides to work, giving them coupons for free gas. Pollution levels in Garville have dropped since the policy was implemented, and people from Garville tell me that commuting times have fallen considerably. There is no reason why a policy like Garville's shouldn't work equally well in Waymarsh."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
According to the letter, it is claimed to propose a policy in Waymarsh, which worked well in Garville, rewarding people who share rides to work in order to solve the traffic problems in that city. And it is also claimed that this policy will be beneficial than the road building project suggested by the town council. To evaluate this argument, we need find more evidence related to the assumptions about the traffic problems , the ways to solve them and the applicability of the policy in Waymarsh.
To begin with, it is argued that the difference of commute time of different surveys shows that there is a traffic problem. However, the surveys are operated in respective ways and it is not clear that if they are under the same control variables. If the first survey is conducted at the time around 7am while the second one is around 9am, the commute time are definitely different because 9am is the peak hour and the difference could have nothing to do with traffic problems. Besides, collected data which is based on scientific methods or recalling also counts. Recalling data is not critical in the surveys and only the data based on scientific methods is authentic. If there are not any other data to prove the result, the conclusion that there is a traffic problem based on the different commute time in those two surveys would be questionable.
In addition, it is also argued that the traffic problem indicated in the surveys, if there is, can only be solved by building more roads or promoting the policy mentioned in the letter. However, we need to identify the problem firstly. The problem could be the congestion caused by the growing number of mobile cars or road maintenance. Nevertheless, the latter could be easily solved after the maintenance and the former one could also have some other methods except building more roads or proposing the policy. As we know, in many circumstances, the car number is keep increasing while the free land is limited so that we cannot build road without limitation. But we can redo the road planning, design a better road network, remove the landmark appealing a lot people and so on. Moreover, these methods can be more economical than building more roads and promoting the policy. So even there is a traffic problem in Waymarsh, it can be solved by other more beneficial methods instead of building more roads or proposing the policy.
Finally, we need to collect more information about how the policy has changed the traffic in Garville and how this policy will have similar effects in Waymarsh if we have to use this method to solve the traffic problem. The fact that pollution levels dropped does not necessarily imply that the policy had reduced the traffic and the amount of exhaust gas. It could be some other measures which were put forward to reduce the pollution caused by factories. Also, it was not clear that the commuting times have decreased for most drivers and passengers in Garville or just for few people who chatted with the author of the letter. Meanwhile, we cannot guarantee the policy to work well in Garville since citizens in that city may not be attracted by the coupons. So we need more information about the citizens’ attitude to the new policy and how this policy worked in coupons to be sure whether to propose this policy or not.
In conclusion, while the policy seems useful, we need to collect more information about the traffic problems , the ways to solve them and the applicability of the policy in Waymarsh and to evaluate the soundness of the argument.
|
|