Argument 38/95/96

ruizhu2002UID：192992

借这个帖子建题库

The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.
"Five year ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."


38
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
95
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
96
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

tesolchinaUID：2191404

楼主的习作移到2楼

In this argument the author states his opinion that their deluxe alpaca overcoats will sell very well because the production of this kind of coat has been halted for five years, and their most competitive rival no longer makes an alpaca overcoat. He also believed that customers could afford higher prices for the coats. The proposition is well presented, but not well reasoned. There are some obvious logical problems.
First of all, it is not a wise decision to resume production at the coming of a new fabric supplier. The market of a product has several factors, including the quality of the original materials. The company needs to investigate the quality of fiber from the new supplier, and its corresponding price. Perhaps, the quality is poor and the price is high, which would possibly cause deficit of the company and even bankrupt. The credit of the supplier is also an important thing which needs to be taken into account. A company which has some cheating histories will discredit not only the supplier itself, but also the clothing company. Therefore, the selection of the supplier should be of great importance.
Second, since they have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and their major competitive rival no long makes this kind of coat, will it sell very well? Obviously, they have nothing to do with each other logically. Clothing is such a kind of thing that there are usually some specific fashionable styles each year and people love different styles at different time. Also, people from different places love different styles. Perhaps, alpaca overcoats have been out of vogue for a long time. Though they are produced once more, they may fall into bad selling. The major competitor has stopped producing such an overcoat, maybe because some other rivals grow up which brought about a great impulsion to its own market. Perhaps, the competitor company might have been faced the same problem that they lacked fabric suppliers years ago. If the new supplier also provides fiber to that company, the two clothing companies would again be in face of competition. So many factors above make the increase of the company profits still unknown.
Third, even though the alpaca overcoats successfully enter the markets, people might not be willing to afford a higher price for them. Perhaps, this kind of coats might not be in fashion anymore and people would rather buy jackets or something else with higher price but not accept an expensive alpaca overcoat. In another aspect, though the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, it may fall down to some extent due to the new coming financial crisis. The production of a new kind of men’s clothing in a bad economic condition is not a good idea and it may lead the company to a financial dilemma.
In conclusion, to decide whether to continue the production of alpaca overcoats, the company should survey more information about the supplier. The clothing markets are also of great importance. They have to know the style that most people love and predict what they will love in near future, and then modify some parts of the overcoat to fit people’s appetite.