阿狗练习

mooneyUID：3452789

十大论证技巧：
1、演绎推理
2、定义法
3、因果关系
4、归纳推理
5、列举特征
6、类比论证
7、引用权威
8、诉诸常识（普遍性价值观、普遍动机、生活常识）
9、反证（不考）
10、统计数据（调查统计、实验对比——绝对数量陷阱、百分比陷阱、平均值陷阱、用整体的数据说明局部情况的陷阱、模糊数据陷阱）
常见逻辑漏洞
1、强词夺理 begging the question（简单重复、夹带问题、反问型）
2、无关问题 red herring
3、退不出 non sequitur
4、一面之词 stacked evidence
5、虚假困境 false either-or dilemma
6、在此之后，因此之故 post hoc(correlation mistaken for causation、concurrence mistaken for causation)
7、仓促概括 hasty generalization
8、人身攻击 ad hominem
9、道德连坐 guilt by association
10、塔斜坡 slippery slope
11、转移话题 extension
12、偷换概念 inconsistent connotation&denotation
13、制造虚假需求 create false needs
14、利用从众心理 bandwagon appeal
15、待定假设 problematic assumption

mooneyUID：3452789

1、
论点：
1、the ancient Paleans could have crossed it only by boat.
2、the so-called Palean baskets were not uniquely Palean.
论据：
1、the Brim River is very deep and broad
2、no Palean boats have been found.
论证方法：
1、the investigation in the article uses the method of counter-evidence as that if the woven baskets were unique from Palean, these baskets would be able to reach to other region with transportation; However since the seemingly only means to get from Palean to Lithos, boat, was not found in the relics of Palean, such communication between the two culture was not possible, thus in this way, the baskets cannot be unique from Palean, instead they might be concurrent from both places or being brought from Lithos to Palean.
2、the investigation suggests that "the Brim River is very deep and broad", so "the ancient Paleans could have crossed it only by boat" in a cause and effect way of deduction
3、the investigation also feature evidence to suggest that since there is no Palean boats to be found, the people from Palean could not know how to use boat.
分析：evidence to evaluate: baskets;river;boat.
1、the investigation indicate that if the baskets found in Lithos could not be transported from Palean, they cannot be unique from Palean; however, such new evidence should be re-examined if they were truly identical with the characteristic of the woven baskets; they might share the same practical feathers with each other or they used the same materials, however such seemingly same feathers might confuse scientists from the underlying subtle difference like their aesthetics feathers
2、the river is big and wide now, however it might be small and shallow way back in prehistoric period.
3、no Palean boats have been found, however, it may be caused by flood or other incidents which were highly possible given the broad time span.

mooneyUID：3452789

2、
论点：birth order may have effect on an individual's levels of stimulation.
论据：1 study showed that firstborn infant monkeys produce more hormone cortisol than their younger siblings
2 first born humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations.
3 during pregnancy, first-time mother monkeys had higher levels of cortisol than others with several offspring.  
论证方法：1 the letter use scientific experiments to demonstrate the point that the order of birth have effect on the individual's levels of stimulation. So the way this experiment was conducted should be examined.
分析：alternative explanations:
1 the number of the monkeys in the experiments was obviously insufficient to provide a convincing conclusion; and the rhesus monkey in question were also doubtfully used as subjects to resemble humans. So it might be the characteristic of this monkey that resulted in the conclusion. What's more, the experiments only detect the levels of hormone cortisol which is supposed to increase activity levels, however, they did not exclude other chemical stimulation which could also be released higher in firstborn infant monkeys but inhibit the function of bodies.  Stimulating situations are not compared with normal situations.
2 the letter talked about firstborn humans also produce relatively high levels of cortisol in stimulating situations, however details of this proof was not given, such as the number of the subjects taking part in the experiments, was there control group to compare, and the letter's using of  the word "relatively " suggests a vague degree. In a word, the letter should illustrate such experiment used how many babies under stimulating situations and the results showed in what degree of percentage does the first born babies produce more hormone cortisol than their siblings.
3、the letter also talked about pregnant first-time mother monkeys produce higher levels of cortisol than others; however, it did explain how the levels of hormone cortisol from mothers can affect their descendant during pregnancy, thus the cause-effect relationship here was obscure. It may be that first-time babies are more vulnerable or stronger than other babies, not because the cortisol levels of their first-time mothers.