argu218 求好心人尽情的拍~~鞠躬敬礼~

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ARGUMENT218 - The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Hyper-Go Toy Company.

"Last year, sales of our Fierce Fighter toy airplane declined sharply, even though the toy had been a top seller for three years. Our customer surveys show that parents are now more worried about youthful violence and are concerned about better education for their children. Therefore, to maintain profits we should discontinue all our action toys and focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys. Several other toy companies have already begun marketing educational toys and report sales increases last year of 200 percent. And since the average family income is growing, sales of new Hyper-Go toys should also increase."

Grounding on a survey what parents are worried and concerned and what other companies do, the author gives the conclusion that we should discontinue all the action toys and focus on the new 俄educational toys to maintain profits. At the first glance, the reasoning seems sound. However, after a close scrutiny of the evidence, the argument is unconvincing for some critical fallacies in the evidence.
Firstly, the author mentions a survey that show parents are more worried about youthful violence. But the author does not tell us if the participants in the survey are random and representative enough to assure the result of the survey. If the author could not offer that information, the result is not that reliable.
Even if the conclusion of the survey is credible, those results do not mean that children would not purchase the toy because the survey is all about their parents. Although the parents' ideas may affect their children, it is very possible that the children can use their own pocket money to buy the toys. So there may have other reasons to make the sale declined. Maybe the quality of the toy is not good enough as before or the competition in this area is fiercer than before. So without ruling out those possibilities we cannot make the conclusion that this kind of toys is no longer popular and the company should discontinue all the action toys. Maybe some improvements on the action toys would change the sales. Besides the author does not consider that if the company focus on a new line of educational toys, more money may cost to begin this new business and the profit would not maintain as the author expect.
Then about the other company, the author tells us that some of them have begun marketing educational toys and report highly increased sales. But there is no information about the number of sales exactly comparing to the sales of action toys. The possibility that the number of sales of the new toy is still lower than that of action toys even after the increase however exists. And what is more critical is that the more sales does not mean more profit because the profit from one action toy is probably higher than that from an education toy. As a result, there is no guarantee for the more profit on the new line of educational toys. And the growing family incomes do not mean a great sale of the new toys, either, because they may not want to purchase the toys.
In sum, the argument is logically unpersuasive as it stands. To strengthen the argument, the author needs more information about the participants of the survey, rule out other possibilities that make the sales decreased and make sure that the new line of educational toy would bring more sales and profits. After that, the conclusion could then be warranted.
  
中文提纲:1、首先调查不具有代表性和随机性，因为作者没有提到关于参加调查人的信息
2、调查是关于父母的，也许父母的意愿会影响孩子的意愿，但是孩子也可能有自己的意愿花自己的零花钱去买，因此调查可能根本没有意义，可能问题不出在父母的意愿上，而可能是由于产品的质量和竞争的激烈导致销量的下降，另外投资新玩具的生产也不能保证有足够的利益可取，可能会花更多的钱
3、其他公司投资了不应定赚的钱多，而且销量的提高也不一定保证销量比action toy的销量好，就算销量好也不能保证利润大，可能一个action toy的销量比educational toy的利润大