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本帖最后由 v700+ 于 2009-9-9 15:06 编辑
23.A recent salesstudy indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent over the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialize in seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantlyfewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about eating healthily. Therefore, a new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be quite popular and profitable.
In this argument, the author concludes that opening a new restaurant in Bay City (BC) which only offers seafood will be popular and profitable. To substantiate this conclusion, the arguments points out the fact that consumption of seafood in BC restaurant has increased during past five years. In addition ,the author indicates that the two-income families in BC which are more interested in healthy food occupied a lot percentage. However, there alone do not constitute a logical argument in favor of conclusion and fail to provide convincing support, making the argument sound and invulnerable.
First, the increased consumption of seafood does not necessarily indicate that there are sufficient demands for anew seafood restaurant in BC. Although,30% increased appears to be significant . Close scrutiny of this fact reveals that it omits some substantial concerns that should be addressed in this statistics. For example, perhaps 30% increased would due entirely to lower actually sales of seafood.Or perhaps the local resident would enjoy not only seafood but also other kinds of food. Without ruling out these and other possibilities, the author cannot justifiably conclude that opening a new seafood restaurant in BC would be as profitable as the author predicts.
Secondly, the author assume that the nationwide statistics about two-income families' eating behavior applies equally to families which are two-income in BC .Yet, this might not be the case, for a variety of possible reasons. Perhaps, so busy are these two-income families that they have little time to have a normal, healthy dinner in restaurant. Or perhaps, the company for which these family members worked would provide free meals each day. Therefore, any of these scenarios, if true, would sever to undermine the claim thatopening a new restaurant would be profitable.
Thirdly, even if the author can substantiate the foregoing assumption , the author overlooks the possibility that the profit is a factor relating to not only revenue but also cost. It is entirely possible that the cost of hiring cookers, or the cost of material seafood, will offset, even over weigh the revenue. Beside, a myriad of unexpected occurrences,such as changeable food preference, might prevent this new restaurant from being profitable.
In sum, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands. To bolster it the author should show-perhaps by way of a reliable citywide study-that there are sufficient demand for a new seafood restaurant in BC. The author would also bolster the argument by providing convincing evidence that the tendency of eating habit in both BC and nation are similar. Finally , to better assess the argument I would need the detailed cost and revenue estimates for a new seafood restaurant in BC, to
determine the likelihood that even a popular such restaurant would turn a profit. |
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