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12.21 COMMENTS
NOTE
Saddled(承受) with the worst credit rating in the country, the “Golden State” is cutting spending on schools, prisons and health care for the elderly, as well as closing parks and laying off staff for three days a month.
Financial shenanigans(恶作剧,诡计) are not the sole province of the banking industry.
The world economy is fitfully(断断续续地) getting back to normal, but it will be a “new normal”.
The crisis invited a forceful government entry into several of capitalism’s inner sanctums(圣地圣所密室). Mr El-Erian worries that the state may overstay(逗留过久) its welcome.
But some forecasters now harbour(持有或抱有(某种特殊的思想或感情)) higher expectations.
Friedman’s story is heartening, but it can come unstuck(未黏住的,松开的,紊乱的) in two ways.
If so, the economy will never recoup(赔偿补偿扣除) its losses, even after spending picks up again.
Financial crises can pose such a threat to national incomes because of the way they erode national wealth.
This was a protracted(拖延的) slog(艰难行进). In the meantime Japan’s economy stagnated. By 2002 its output was almost 23% below its pre-crisis trajectory(轨道轨线弹道,原来可以这么用).
China is outpacing expectations(超出预料).
Goldman Sachs is making hay(再创高峰).
But the relief is likely to be short-lived. Just over a year ago, the day Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, the world economy fell off a precipice. When you are falling, you do not look up. Only when you hit bottom can you stop and contemplate the cliff you must now climb.(有意思~)
The travails(辛苦,艰辛劳动) of finance, in turn, may prevent the recovering economy from backing and exploiting innovations.
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SUMMARY
This report explored the question whether the economy could recover steadfastly during post-crisis time.
After rumination, ''revert to mean'' prospect as well as a new norm featured by subdued growth and higher employment were suggested by Pimco.
Still, on the other hand, some people believed the economy could restore itself to the former state before this crisis. Among those optimistic opinion lies Friedman's piece of string and board metaphor, revealing that vigorous spending could stimulate the economy and employ its resources fully.
String theory claimed that after crisis, the idled energy(work force, unexploited innovations,etc.) thrust the economy. Yet this statement overlooked the possibly permanent harm imposed by the shrinking spending during the crisis as the tie between laborers and economic world loosens, activity of companies declined, and ceilings of production lowered. The economy, therefore, may hardly to regain the same pace as before.
Meanwhile, financial crisis pose threat on national wealth. Not like other natural disasters, economic crisis not only shattered overpriced assets, but also left burdensome or even unfulfilled liabilities that hampered the developments afterwards. That is a ''balance-sheet recession''.
Months afer Pimco's meeting, world's economy seems to start bouncing back. Yet it may be short-lived. This special report argued that the influence of crisis required more cautions than expected.
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COMMENT
Economy has long been a intriguing subject.Turmoils today have witnessed breakdowns of big companies as well as sufferings of laid-off workers. Unemployment rate will continue to be high, as mentioned in the report, stability of society will be challenged. To relieve such stress, government of China has already launched several programs motivating individuals to start enterprises of their own. And this seems to be the trend. Rapidly developed technologies, in the meantime, provide opportunities to small yet innovative newcomers to set root on the turbulent or unexploited fields.The advanced chip-making technics, for example, help many bandit(or shanzhai) cellphone makers gaining prosperity. The breakdown of monopoly, though appears disordered initially, may rewards the end. |
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