Argument147 我的第一篇，求拍啊~

fengzhizhiUID: 2707081

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."




提纲：
2, survey不可信
3,sales decline的原因不明
4,即便以上两条确证，Sales仍然可能没有增加。


The argument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned. By utilizing the result of a survey about the preference of the video-game players and adjusting the video game products accordingly, the prediction that Whirlwind video games are to increase its sales seems logical. However, close scrutiny of the evidence reveals that it lends little credible support to the prediction.

First and foremost, the whole prediction is constructed upon the survey of what features video-game players thought were most important in a video game. However, the credibility of the survey is questionable. Are the participants randomly selected and representative of the whole population playing video games? Are the survey samples big enough? Without evidence of the survey’s reliability, it is impossible to draw any firm conclusion about whether games providing lifelike graphics is more preferable based on the survey.

Even if the survey is well substantiated, yet the prediction is weakened by not providing the reason why the sales of Whirlwind video games declined in the past two years. Is it because of the tendency of a smaller population of people interested in playing video games? For that matter, perhaps the youth is attracted more to sports due to the ever-increasing effect of NBA, or it is likely that a high pressure of going to college and finding a good job makes the youth spend more time on studying rather than playing video games. And is it because competition in the video game field is increasing in the past two years and more companies come in to the market? Without ruling out all these possibilities, the prediction that the new introduced video games would generate a rise of sales is implausible.

Finally, even though it is proved that it's the out-fashioned video games that contribute most to the sales decline, the prediction that the sales would increase is still not substantiated. Will the new introduced games appeal to the target 10-25 age group? Or perhaps the cost of introducing these new games and advertising promote the price of the products to a level that can't be afford by the target group, most of which are still students having little or no income. Only if clear evidence such as a survey is provided that the target group is willing to buy the new products, can I be convinced that the sales would increase in the next few month.

In conclusion, the prediction, while it seems logical at first glance, has several flaws as discussed above. The argument could be further improved by providing evidence that the decline of sales is a consequence of out-of-mode game products. To better assess the prediction, I would like to know how the target group would actually buy the new introduced video games of Whirlwind.

sakuraanneUID: 2253519

写的中规中矩，逻辑也没什么大问题，我觉得和我写的挺像的。。。
但是显然模板化还是比较明显，如果要提高只有自己琢磨范文，看看能不能走出一条自己的个性之路来。
还可以多说一点，即使reverse了也不一定dramatically increase in a few months，一定的增长量不一定能弥补下跌量，同时恢复的时间段太短。

sakuraanneUID: 2253519

总之我认为你离考试还有很久，能写成这样是非常不错了

fengzhizhiUID: 2707081

2# sakuraanne
谢谢姐姐批改~ 好好研读范文，好好努力，争取明天再写一篇~