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本帖最后由 qxn_1987 于 2010-1-18 08:12 编辑
01.16&01.17(comments)
…even with President Barack Obama's hand stretched out to Iran, has been unsuccessful.
【Too often belligerent motives are ascribed to anyone who suggests the viability of the military option in resolving the international standoff over Iran's nuclear programme.】 However, the argument in favour of military action is not about what is preferred but rather about what might be necessary.
It would be foolhardy(愚勇的,有勇无谋的莽撞的) to argue that military action is the preferred policy option for stopping Iran's nuclear aspirations, which are strategically untenable for the United States. No American general is eager for war. There remain levers, such as biting sanctions, that have yet to be tried. They should be implemented immediately and given a chance to work. 【But, should all other options fail to thwart Iran's nuclear ambitions, a US-led military strike is preferable to an Israeli attack, and certainly preferable to a nuclear weapons-capable Iran.】Thus, I believe that maintaining and asserting publicly that military action is an option of last resort is the best hope we have for international security and peace. I have three main reasons for this view.
impudent(放肆无礼的,厚颜无耻的)
standoff
Given continuing Russian reluctance, Chinese indifference and EU apprehension, it seems unlikely that we will see internationally-backed biting sanctions soon, if at all.
Nor does the prospect of regime change strike me as a particularly likely solution to this problem. The Iranian government appears to have no compunction about using violence to quell protests. 【The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in particular, has so insinuated itself into Iran's economic and political structures that it has greater financial incentive to maintain power by deadly force than to make political concessions.】/ But even should the opposition somehow succeed in wresting power from the current regime, there has been no indication among some of its leaders that it would curtail Iran's nuclear programme.
Should such pressure prove insufficient, and only once all other policy options have been exhausted, the United States could and should launch a punishing strike against Iranian nuclear and military installations.
Additionally, with an effective nuclear deterrent(核威慑力量), Iran will be freer to sponsor terrorism, wage proxy warfare, derail(出轨) the Middle East process and violently repress its burgeoning democratic movement.
We all hope for a peaceful resolution of Iran's nuclear ambitions. But should we fail to reach one, a US-led military strike will be the least bad option available to us.
Military strikes can play a certain role in dealing with states' illegal military-directed nuclear programmes, but only when carried out at an early stage and preferably with the element of surprise. For this kind of nipping in the bud(nip in the bud一开始即加以阻止,扼杀...于萌芽状态,防...于未然) strategy to work, the nuclear programme must be limited in scope, so that serious damage can be achieved with a single blow.
At the current stage of the international community's dealings with Iran, these conditions no longer exist. Military action will not eliminate the problem. With nuclear facilities spread throughout the country and Iran having prepared itself for years for this scenario by building up fortifications and defences, such a strike could at the very best delay the pace of its progress towards the bomb for a few years. And it would come at a relatively high price in terms of Iran's expected reaction; beyond the military response itself, it would open an account between Iran and whoever attacked it that would be very difficult to settle. Moreover, whether it was the United States or Israel that attacked Iran, the other would surely be implicated by Iran.
But there are additional reasons to reject the military approach. In conceptual terms, the major drawback of military attack as a tool of non-proliferation is that it focuses on denying capabilities, rather than altering states' motivations. Regardless of how successful a particular attack might be, it is less likely to become the basis for a long-term solution to the challenge posed by a determined proliferator than would be a negotiated bargain. We saw this in the case of Iraq.
Tactically speaking, use of military force in the case of Iran could also backfire.
Finally, there is an additional question of who would bomb? Would it be the United States? Israel? Practically speaking, there are no certain candidates for this job. 【Barack Obama has clarified that military action is not a realistic option, even though he continues to provide lip service(说得好听的话,空口的应酬话) to it by saying from time to time that all options are on the table.】 And while Israel might be more willing to carry out an attack on Iran's facilities, it is not clear whether it has the capability to do so, or whether it could or would act without a green light from the United States.
The challenge for the United States is to move from simply embracing diplomacy to devising a coherent and focused strategy for carrying out what will no doubt be a difficult negotiation with Iran.
Comments:
1. Chuck Wald: Chuck Wald who defends the motion that the world would be a safer if Iran’s nuclear facilities were bombed, reckons that the military action is necessary rather than perferred. He demonstrates his argument by giving three main reasons.
2. Emily Landau: In contrast with military action, from Emily Landau’s opinion who opposes the motion, a negotiated settlement would be more preferable. Emily Landau provides several reasons to argue that military action will not eliminate the problem, especially at this late stage of the game.
I agree more with Emily Landau rather than Chuck Wald, since Emily Landau’s argument is more convictive and forceful to me, as well as accords with my personal view that military action cannot solve the problem satisfactorily as we expect. First, not all the hot potatoes can be settled by military action, including Iran’s nuclear facilities, we shouldn’t attach too much importance to or expect too high effectual of military action, which always brings extraordinarily great sorrow or deep hurt. Second, we have no evidence to demonstrate that military action is the only way to solve the problem, just as Chuck Wald has said, military action is necessary rather than perferred. Furthermore, bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities may induce more knotty questions. We should take all the factors into account from the long run.
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拼写:
contrast
convictive
satisfactorily |
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