1006G[REBORN FROM THE ASHES组]备考日记 by windandrain2004——机会永远只有一次

windandrain2004UID: 2597690

限时argument131，过两天就考了，请求指点

今天限时写的，过几天就考试了，不知道写成这样能有多少分，大家给点建议吧，先谢谢了！ TOPIC: ARGUMENT131 - The following appeared in an environmental newsletter published in Tria Island. "The marine sanctuary on Tria Island was established to protect certain marine mammals. Its regulations ban dumping and offshore oil drilling within 20 miles of Tria, but fishing is not banned. Currently many fish populations in Tria's waters are declining, a situation blamed on pollution. In contrast, the marine sanctuary on Omni Island has regulations that ban dumping, offshore oil drilling, and fishing within 10 miles of Omni and Omni reports no significant decline in its fish populations. Clearly, the decline in fish populations in Tria's waters is the result of overfishing, not pollution. Therefore, the best way to restore Tria's fish populations and to protect all of Tria's marine wildlife is to abandon our regulations and adopt those of Omni." WORDS: 314 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2009-7-31 21:03:35 In this argument, the author concludes that the Tria Island should abandon its regulations and adopt Omni's in order to restore its fish populations and protect all of its marine wildlife. To support his conclusion, the author cites the example of Omni Island which has regulations that ban fishing. However, the argument suffers from a few flaws. To begin with, the author assumes too hastily that the decline in fish populations in Tria's waters should blame on overfishing. Firstly, there are many other nature factors which would influence the fish population, such as water temperature, spaning season, extreme weather phenomenon and so forth. Secondly, the author fails to prove that the banned actions have not happened. If the water is polluted, the fish population will probably decrease. Besides, the oil may also float from other place. All these sceranios, if true, will undermine the author's conclusion that overfishing should be responsible for decline in fish populations. In additon, even assuming that overfishing leads to the decline in fish populations, the author falsely concludes that Tria should follow the example of Omni. The author overlooks the differences between the two Islands. There might be disparity in Island weather, water quality, fish sorts and so on. These defferences will make Omni's regulations unsuccessful in Tria. What's more, the author doesn't prove that the fish caught in Tria is within 10 miles of Tria, which will undermine the conclusion. Further more, even assuming that the Omni's regulation will success in Tria, the argument still has some flaws. First, the Omni's regulations might not be the best one. There are may be better ones such as stricker ban on dumping. Second, the Omni's regulation cannot guarantee to protect all the marine wildlife. To sum up, the author fails to substantiate his conclusion that Tria should adopt Omni's regulations. To support his conclusion, the author should provides more information.

windandrain2004UID: 2597690

Argument 35 首次限时，欢迎猛拍

时间果然不够用啊…… 用时：35m； 字数：449 ------------------ 35. The following appeared in the summary of a study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia. "Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, for the past several decades food-processing companies have also been adding salicylates to foods as preservatives. This rise in the commercial use of salicylates has been found to correlate with a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by participants in our twenty-year study. Recently, food-processing companies have found that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods. With this new use for salicylates, we can expect a continued steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia." ------------------ 正文 In this summary the author concludes that the number of headaches suffered by average citizen of Mentia will continue to decline. To justify this argument, the author show me some evidence that many foods are naturally rich in salicylates(S), which are similar to aspirin, a medicine used to treat headache. Moreover, the author cites a twenty – year study, amid which the average number of headaches is reported declining. However, close scrutiny of the argument reveals many logical and statistic problems that will without doubt render it unconvincing. To begin with, the author’s argument relies on a hasty assumption that S is the very factor leading to the decline of the number of headaches. However, no certain proof has been shown to confirm this connection. There is a high possibility that it’s some other chemicals that added in foods curing the headaches, but not S. And it’s also possible that even though S is curing the headaches, the consequence is not apparent enough for a survey to check out. Even if the connection between the use of S and decline of headache is confirmed, the author fails to show the details of the twenty-year study to prove it representative. First, the number of people who has taken the survey is not given. Perhaps the sample is too small to be considered valid. Furthermore, the situation of these sample people is also unknown. It’s possible that the symptom of the headache of the people is not severe enough, and that it’s some other factors resulting in the recovery of their headache, even that it’s cure all by themselves. Even if the two factors that will lead to the failure of the argument are both proved, the author still cannot prove that the trend of using S as preservative will continue. It’s totally possible that all the companies tend to give up using S as preservative for some reasons, like recent discovery or governmental restricts. Or perhaps, there will be some other chemicals found to be more efficient than S as preservative, which will without doubt result in the decline of using S. In sum, the argument is unpersuasive as it stand in many facets. Firstly, to strengthen the argument, the author must show me more evidence to prove that it is the S which added as preservative that cure people’s headache, not other chemicals. Secondly, to convince me, the author also have to show more details about the twenty – year study to prove it representative. Finally, the author also have to give adequate evidence to show that the tendency of using S as preservatives will continue. Without ruling out all the other possibilities, the argument will never convince me.

windandrain2004UID: 2597690

Argument203~[限时]求拍~有拍必回~~

本帖最后由 parisy 于 2009-4-9 22:24 编辑 TOPIC: ARGUMENT203 - The following appeared in a newspaper feature story. "At the small, nonprofit hospital in the town of Saluda, the average length of a patient's stay is two days; at the large, for-profit hospital in the nearby city of Megaville, the average patient stay is six days. Also, the cure rate among patients in the Saluda hospital is about twice that of the Megaville hospital. The Saluda hospital has more employees per patient than the hospital in Megaville, and there are few complaints about service at the local hospital. Such data indicate that treatment in smaller, nonprofit hospitals is more economical and of better quality than treatment in larger, for-profit hospitals." WORDS: 431 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2009-4-7 9:59:42 提纲： 1，在医院时间长短不能说明治疗质量 2，治愈比率同样不能说明治疗质量 3，医院有更多工作人员不一定能提供更好服务 4，投诉少不能说明服务好 There are several facets are questionable in this argument. At first, the stayed time is not a good indication about the quality of treatment. Secondly, the cure rate can not indicate about the quality about the hospital. Thirdly, more employees for per patient could not ensure a better treatment for the patient. Finally, few complaints were received about the service does not demonstrate all the other people are satisfied with the service. So, the assertion which the author concluded in the argument is unreliable. To begin with, the author has tried to make us believe that the Saluda hospital (SH) could provide better quality treatment because the average length of a patient's stay and the cure rate there is shorter than Megaville Hospital (MH).Lacking information about what kind of illness the patient have got, the author can not confidently draw any conclusion about the quality about the two hospitals. Maybe the patients who visited to SH have some slight sickness, and people may choose the big hospital like MH to cure some serious disease like cancer, or AIDS, and that kinds of sicknesses are not easy,even possible to heal. Another question about the argument is that though there are more employees for per patient of SH than MH, the author can not make sure that every patient will be provided a better service. For the simple reason that we don't know the jobs of those employees, there may be some of them are bus drivers or cooks in cafeteria. They can do nothing to help patient restore. Granted that all the jobs the employees worked are helpful to the patients. We don't know whether they are loyal to their occupation. So the author generated the conclusion too hastily. Finally, the data about complaints about service of SH could not ensure us SH provides better service. Because we don't know, how many patients have been the two hospitals respectively to cure some sicknesses, and what fraction of them has reported a complaint. May be the quantity of the complaints of SH is less than that of MH. But the fraction may be larger. Granted that both the quantity and fraction of the complaints received by SH is less. The author can not convince us that all the other people are satisfied with the service. In conclusion, this argument can not be taken seriously as it stands. To strengthen it, the author should provide the detailed information about what kind of illness the patients have, what jobs do the employees worked for, and the exact proportion about the received complaints of all the patients.

windandrain2004UID: 2597690

就快考了，Argument第一次限时，求拍

模板化是不是太严重了？思路有没有问题？求猛拍！！！！！！！！ TOPIC: ARGUMENT159 - The nation of Claria covers a vast physical area. But despite wide geographic differences, many citizens are experiencing rising costs of electricity. A recent study of household electric costs in Claria found that families who cooled their houses with fans alone spent more on electricity than did families using air conditioners alone for cooling. However, those households that reported using both fans and air conditioners spent less on electricity than those households that used either fans or air conditioners alone. Thus, the citizens of Claria should follow the study's recommendation and use both air conditioners and fans in order to save money on electricity. WORDS: 431 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2009-3-17 下午 08:10:53 In this argument, the author recommends both using air conditioners and fans as an effective way of saving money on electricity. In order to justify it, the author cites a survey that different families being diverse in the way of cooling the house spend different money on electricity. However, close scrutiny of the statistic and the line of reasoning reveal that it is not convincing. A threshold problem with the argument involves the statistical reliability of the survey. Lacking of assurance and information about the randomness and relative size of the survey' sample, the author cannot convince me the conclusion of the survey is reliable. As the author mentions, the nation of Claria covers a vast physical area, without enough large sample, so it is entirely possible that the survey is not representative of the real situation of Claria. Moreover different place will have different temperature and the price of electricity, without comprehensive consideration these factors, I strongly doubt the reliability of the survey. The dubious survey undermines the follow conclusions which rely on it. Secondly, the author asserts different way of cooling the house causes the decrease of electricity consuming just because they happen together. Obviously, the evidence for the casual relationship is too vague to believe. Furthermore, to satisfy the same requirement, common sense informs us air condition costs more electricity than fans. Thus, there must be other reasons causing the decrease of the electric consumption. The most reasonable one is that the expense for air condition is so money-consuming that the citizens would like to tolerate the hot weather rather than pay for it. Even though the author can substantiate foregoing assumption and assertion, I still cannot accept his/her recommendation because the author overlooks other factors contributes to the amounts of electricity. As we know, for a family, facilities of cooling the house take little part of electricity. Computer, lights, television, fridge and so forth cost more electricity. Thus it is possible that even though the method of saving electricity recommended by the author works, it makes little contribution to the total electricity consuming so that we cannot see the change on spending money. Furthermore, if the electric consumptions of other factors increase, it will not save the money, strongly contradicting to the conclusion of the author. To sum up, the recommendation suffers from statistic and logic flaws causing that it is not warranted. In order to strengthen it, the author should provide the compelling evidence to prove the reliability of the survey and the casual relationship between the way of cooling their house and decrease of electric consumption. Additionally, the author should also provide appealing evidence to prove the total electric consumption will decrease.

windandrain2004UID: 2597690

16号考试,刚限时模考一片argument163 希望大家帮帮忙，提点意见，感激涕零

TOPIC: ARGUMENT163 - The following is taken from the editorial section of the local newspaper in Rockingham. "In order to save a considerable amount of money, Rockingham's century-old town hall should be torn down and replaced by the larger and more energy-efficient building that some citizens have proposed. The old town hall is too small to comfortably accommodate the number of people who are employed by the town. In addition, it is very costly to heat the old hall in winter and cool it in summer. The new, larger building would be more energy efficient, costing less per square foot to heat and cool than the old hall. Furthermore, it would be possible to rent out some of the space in the new building, thereby generating income for the town of Rockingham." WORDS: 391 TIME: 00:25:46 DATE: 2009/3/12 10:40:26 Citing the comparison between the old hall and new hall, the author comes to the conclusion that on the purpose of saving money, Rockingham' century-old town hall should be torn down and replaced by the larger and more energy-efficient building. However, this argument is based on a series of unproven assumptions, which render it unconvincing as it stands. One such assumption is that the new hall will save energy. Even though the new one will be more energy efficient, costing less per square foot, the author ignores the fact the new hall is far larger than the old hall. In which case, the overall costs of the new hall would be no less, perhaps more than the energy costs of the old hall. Unless the author could provide exact data to demonstrate the new hall can really save energy, his assumption is dubious. The author's claim that building the new hall will save a considerable amount of money is open to doubt. On the one hand, tearing down the old hall and building the new hall is considerably money-consuming. The author does not inform the exact amount of money needed; maybe it might lead the town council to budget strain. On the other hand, the author mentions some of the space could be rented out to generate income. However, people might not be willing to rent the hall, in which case, the town would not get any revenue. In short, without providing solid evidences that building new hall would save money, the author's proposal is unpersuasive. Finally, as the current hall is century-old, it might have historic values. For example, the old hall might be a famous tourist site of town, which attracts thousands of tourists every year. Or perhaps, the old hall might have certain special meaning in the local residents' minds. They might regard the hall as the symbol of the town. If either of the cases is true, the old hall's merits far outweigh the new one's advantages. All in all, this argument relies on certain unwarranted assumptions and therefore specious at best. To convince readers to accept his/her conclusion that replacing the old hall with new one, the author should provide information on whether the new hall will save energy and save a considerable amount of money, and last but not least, the old hall' historic values.

windandrain2004UID: 2597690

第一篇限时，argument137【4月同心砥砺组】第4周 第1次

TOPIC: ARGUMENT137 - The following appeared in an editorial in the Mason City newspaper. "At present, Mason City residents seldom use the nearby Mason River for any kind of recreational activity, even though surveys of the region's residents consistently rank water sports (swimming, fishing, and boating) as a favorite form of recreation. Since there have been complaints about the quality of the water in the river, residents must be avoiding the river because they think that it is not clean enough. But that situation is about to change: the agency responsible for rivers in our region has announced plans to clean up Mason River. Therefore, recreational use of the river is likely to increase, so the Mason City council will need to increase its budget for improvements to the publicly owned lands along the Mason River." WORDS: 416          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2009/3/9 16:28:42 In this augument, the author drew the conclution about the increase of recreational use of the Mason River, after his/her seemingly convincing procedure of reasoning, and suggested the City council to increase the budget for the improvement of lands along Mason River. As far as I see it, this argument omits some sunbstential information, and therefor suffers some logical fallacies. To begin with, the author falsely established a causal relationship between the complaint about the quality of the water and the seldom using of the nearby River for recreational activity. Although the two things happened simultaneously, but there are pobably many other reasons for seldom using of the water, too. For example, in the city there is a swimming pool, which supplies a good service and has new infrastructure. So the residents prefer going there to siwmming in the river. Like swimming pool, other places, such as park and artifical lack, will attract people as well. Without providing us the information about other places in the city, the author's assumption is invalid. In addition, can the annoucement about cleaning up Mason River by the agency make the use of river increased? Even assuming that the residents seldom use the River, because they worried the quality of the water, a promise about cleaning upcannot make the river really clean at a short time. The environmental restore will take a relative long time, as we know. Moreover, the author did not tell us the detail of the cleaning plan. When does begin it, and how does the agency put it into practice? So the author's conclution about a increase of use of the water lacks credibility. Last but not least, the author's suggestion is also doubtful. Even if the river can be cleaned up, it is not clear that why the council will need to increase its budget for improvements to the lands along the Mason River? Can this plan represent the residents' real will? It is entirely possible that a majority of residents want to keep these lands wild as before, so that they can get a real relax in the nature. The author did not show the oppinion of the residents, therefore the final suggestion may be not proper. To sum up, in this argument, the evidence is not enough to support waht the author maintained. To strenghten, more information, such as a introduce of the city, a detailed plan about cleaning up the river and a poll about the improvement of lands, are necessary.

windandrain2004UID: 2597690

第一篇限时，argument137【4月同心砥砺组】第4周 第1次

TOPIC: ARGUMENT137 - The following appeared in an editorial in the Mason City newspaper. "At present, Mason City residents seldom use the nearby Mason River for any kind of recreational activity, even though surveys of the region's residents consistently rank water sports (swimming, fishing, and boating) as a favorite form of recreation. Since there have been complaints about the quality of the water in the river, residents must be avoiding the river because they think that it is not clean enough. But that situation is about to change: the agency responsible for rivers in our region has announced plans to clean up Mason River. Therefore, recreational use of the river is likely to increase, so the Mason City council will need to increase its budget for improvements to the publicly owned lands along the Mason River." WORDS: 416          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2009/3/9 16:28:42 In this augument, the author drew the conclution about the increase of recreational use of the Mason River, after his/her seemingly convincing procedure of reasoning, and suggested the City council to increase the budget for the improvement of lands along Mason River. As far as I see it, this argument omits some sunbstential information, and therefor suffers some logical fallacies. To begin with, the author falsely established a causal relationship between the complaint about the quality of the water and the seldom using of the nearby River for recreational activity. Although the two things happened simultaneously, but there are pobably many other reasons for seldom using of the water, too. For example, in the city there is a swimming pool, which supplies a good service and has new infrastructure. So the residents prefer going there to siwmming in the river. Like swimming pool, other places, such as park and artifical lack, will attract people as well. Without providing us the information about other places in the city, the author's assumption is invalid. In addition, can the annoucement about cleaning up Mason River by the agency make the use of river increased? Even assuming that the residents seldom use the River, because they worried the quality of the water, a promise about cleaning upcannot make the river really clean at a short time. The environmental restore will take a relative long time, as we know. Moreover, the author did not tell us the detail of the cleaning plan. When does begin it, and how does the agency put it into practice? So the author's conclution about a increase of use of the water lacks credibility. Last but not least, the author's suggestion is also doubtful. Even if the river can be cleaned up, it is not clear that why the council will need to increase its budget for improvements to the lands along the Mason River? Can this plan represent the residents' real will? It is entirely possible that a majority of residents want to keep these lands wild as before, so that they can get a real relax in the nature. The author did not show the oppinion of the residents, therefore the final suggestion may be not proper. To sum up, in this argument, the evidence is not enough to support waht the author maintained. To strenghten, more information, such as a introduce of the city, a detailed plan about cleaning up the river and a poll about the improvement of lands, are necessary.

windandrain2004UID: 2597690

argument159 限时第二篇 （done by 草木也知愁）

本帖最后由 草木也知愁 于 2009-3-6 18:13 编辑 159.The nation of Claria covers a vast physical area. But despite wide geographic differences, many citizens are experiencing rising costs of electricity. A recent study of household electric costs in Claria found that families who cooled their houses with fans alone spent more on electricity than did families using air conditioners alone for cooling. However, those households that reported using both fans and air conditioners spent less on electricity than those households that used either fans or air conditioners alone. Thus, the citizens of Claria should follow the study's recommendation and use both air conditioners and fans in order to save money on electricity. 时间 30:00 ----------------正文------------------------ In this argument, the arguer points out that the citizens of Claria should follow the study's recommendation and use both air conditioners and fans in order to save money on electricity. To support his recommendation, the arguer claims that it is based on a recent study. However, at the first glance, the arguer seems to be plausible, but after a close scrutiny, it lies in several fallacies and logical flaws discussed below. To begin with, the arguer neglects an important factor which the nation of Claria covers a vast physical area. This phenomenon leads to the different temperature in different region. Therefore, in common sense, with different temperature it is absolutely different costs on electricity. For example, A is natural cooler than B, so A must pay less electric money on fans or air conditioners because the residents in A have already felt cooler than B. Consequently, without consider this factor, the arguer's claim is open to doubt. Secondly, the arguer fails to prove that it is the fact that all the electric costs which they have seen is the fans' or air conditioners' using cost. In other word, the arguer commits a false equal relationship between the overall electric cost and the fans' and air conditioners’ cost. It is entirely possible that when the residents are using fans or air conditioners, they also use other electric facilities, such as computers, televisions and so forth. Thus, without ruling out other possibilities about the electric cost, the arguer's claim can not convince us thoroughly. Even if I was to concede that it is the fact that this overall electric cost is equal to the cooling equipments' cost, the arguer's point is also suspect. It is likely that the longer we use the electric facilities, the more opportunity (probability) they will be wrong (they happen to malfunction). It is absolutely possible that the saving money is so little that we can neglect it while the electric equipment is mighty expensive. Therefore, it may not save money if these facilities have something wrong as the result of long time usage. To sum up, this argument lacks credible because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To better bolster and strengthen it, the arguer needs to provide specific information about the electric cost and offer us more data of local temperature in different regions. 红色为自己后来先修正的

windandrain2004UID: 2597690

argument180 限时成功 求拍

"Many other companies have recently stated that having their employees take the Easy Read Speed-Reading Course has greatly improved productivity. One graduate of the course was able to read a five-hundred-page report in only two hours; another graduate rose from an assistant manager to vice president of the company in under a year. Obviously, the faster you can read, the more information you can absorb in a single workday. Moreover, Easy Read costs only $500 per employee-a small price to pay when you consider the benefits to Acme. Included in this fee is a three-week seminar in Spruce City and a lifelong subscription to the Easy Read newsletter. Clearly, Acme would benefit greatly by requiring all of our employees to take the Easy Read At first glance, it would seem, according to the logic of the argument, that Acme Publishing Company (AC) will benefit greatly by requiring all of the employers to take the Easy Read, would be a foregone conclusion. However, the reasoning behind the argument is flawed for several reasons: the author's assumption that the employees taking the Easy Read has greatly improved productivity is open to doubt; the author omits the possibility the training may be useless to Acme; and the author fail to provide information to support that all employees of Acme need to take the training. The author's assumption that the employees taking the training have improved productivity is specious. The author only takes two employees, the number of whom is too small to represent the overall employees taking the training, to support him. Perhaps other employees' productivity has not improved; even worse, taking the three-week seminar will require the employees to take a three- weeks excuse, which will serious affect the normal jobs of the employees. Besides, there may be other factors that explain the achievements of two employees. Perhaps, their abilities have already been very outstanding. Without the training one of them still can read a five-hundred-page report in only two hours; while the other still can rise to vice president. In sum, the author should provide more details of the other employees taking the training. The author fail to guarantee other companies' success will apply to Acme. After all they are different companies and belong to different fields. Perhaps the training will not succeed in Acme for its disparities from other companies, such as the company size, the employees' jobs and the education background of employees. For example, maybe the employees of Acme are graduating from those famous universities, and they already have outstanding reading speeds, which do not have to be improved any more. Without considering the dissimilarities between these companies, the author can not assert Acme’s employees need the training. Even assuming the employees of Acme have the need to improve their reading speed, the author's proposal that all employees take the training does not make sense. Common sense tells us that a company's employees have various jobs, many of which do not need the employees to read. For example, the company may have cleaners, whose jobs are just to do the cleaning. If require these cleaners to take the training, at the expense of $500 per person, would it not a waste of money? Improving the productivity is of great importance to the company; however, the personnel director of Acme should not be hasty to give his proposal. To convince the readers to accept his conclusion, the author has much work to do: he should find if the training really can improve productivity; he should provide data to show whether Acme's employees need to take it and which employees need and which need not the training

windandrain2004UID: 2597690

argument65 限时第一篇，真诚求拍

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses." According to the sales of their newest store and the results of a survey by Cheeses of the World, the president of a chain of cheese stores comes to the conclusion that the west way to improve profits in all of their stores is to discontinue stocking many of their varieties of imported cheeses and concentrate primarily on domestic  cheeses. Though sound as it seems, the reasoning is flawed in several aspects. To begin with, in the newest store the domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconisin are the best selling cheeses does not mean that all the domestic cheeses sell well. It is entirely possible that all the other domestic cheeses nevertheless sell badly. Perhaps, in the newest store, the domestic cheeses except for those from Wisconisin sell not as well as the imported cheeses and the overall sales of imported cheeses are far more than that of domestic cheeses. If this is the case, discontinuing stocking the imported cheeses, the stores, whose overall sales will drop sharply, will definitely lose huge profits. Unless the president finds out the other cheeses' sales, his proposal will not be convincing. Besides, even assuming that in the newest store, the sales of domestic are better than those of imported cheeses, the president's advice still be too hasty. The president has not provided any evidence that the newest can typify all of their stores. There are many disparities among all the stores, such as the geography positions, the economical conditions of the cities where the stores are located, the tastes of the stores' customers, which will lead to different  results of the president' proposal in variable stores. To guarantee this proposal can improve profits, the presidents must make an investigation to learn what the sales in other stores and whether the sales of the newest store can represent all the stores' sales. In addition, the result of the survey by the magazine can lends little support to the president's proposal. The majority of the survey's respondents are the subscribers of the magazine and not representatives of the overall customers of this chain of cheese stores. Perhaps the respondents' tastes differ greatly from the tastes of this chain of stores' customers, who more prefer imported cheeses. If the president wants to know what the tastes of his stores' customers, he should do a survey among the customers of their chain of stores, rather than blindly believing one magazine’s survey. In sum, there are still many jobs demanding the presidents to do before his proposal's carried out. Such as, making an investigation to learn what the sales of the other cheeses and what the tastes of customers in all the stores of the chains are.

windandrain2004UID: 2597690

Argument6 新手限时第二篇 求拍

TOPIC: ARGUMENT6 - The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe. "A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money." WORDS: 429 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2009-2-19 15:55:39     In this argument, the author brought out several facts to support his loan plan. First, currently there is no jazz club nearby Monroe (M). Second, jazz is of great popularity in M. Third, nearly $1000 was spent per year in jazz nationwide. A careful inspection will reveal that these facts are not sufficient to guarantee a profitable result of C note.     To begin with, the favor of 'Jazz Nightly' doesn't necessarily indicate that M's resident will also be interested to take part in a jazz club. On the contrary, the highest-rated radio program which airs every weeknight may attract those people, and provide them with a reason not to attend a jazz club. After all, turning on the radio is much more convenient than driving to a club. Neither can the residence of several well-know jazz musicians infer that a jazz club located in M will be warmly welcomed. It is quite possible that those musicians are acting in the nearest jazz club, or on frequent nationwide show. Without evidence that the people in M will be eager to attend a jazz club, I can not accept that C will be so welcomed.     Another critical fallacy the argument suffer is, the nationwide study that typical jazz fan spends nearly $1000 per year on jazz doesn't necessarily apply to M. It is quite possible that the fans in M do not follow these general trends. Besides, the money spend on jazz club may only contribute a little part to the whole budget. Thus, lacking evidence that M's residents will behave similarly as the typical jazz fans do, and they will indeed spend large amount of money on jazz club, the author's conclusion that C Note will make money is unconvincing.     Finally, even assuming the people in M will be crazy about jazz club and they prone to spend a lot of money attending a jazz night, it doesn't means that C Note will definitely be profitable. As we all know, both revenue and cost contribute to the profit. Probably the rent in M is quite expensive, or the salary level in M is relatively high, which will inevitably increase the cost. Unless the author provides more information about supply, demand, and relative costs, it is almost impossible to make sure whether C Note will make money.     In conclusion, the argument is not well reasoned. To strengthen it the author should provide clearer evidence that M's residents will go in for C Note. The author should also clearly analyze the relative costs against its incomings, and make this application more persuasive.

windandrain2004UID: 2597690

argument51 限时第一篇，还有10天考试了，恳请大家指点，帮帮兄弟

"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment." WORDS: 458 TIME: 00:29:57 DATE: 2009-2-17 PM 12:40:35 According to the preliminary result of a study of two groups of patients, the author comes to the conclusion that all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment. Although sound it seems, the argument is flawed in several aspects. Primarily, maybe other factors other than the taking the antibiotics contributed the different effects of the two treatments in the study. The two groups of patients were treated by different doctors. Except for the antibiotics, there are many differences between the treatments - the doctors' skills, the treatment measures and the equipments the doctor used. Maybe, Dr. Newland has better skills, and the measures and equipments he used were more advanced. All of these advantages can explain why the recuperation time of Dr. Newland's patients was greatly reduced. In addition, the conditions of the patients in the two groups maybe different. Perhaps, the patients of the first group have less serious injuries than those of the latter group, leading the first group easily to recover. Besides, the author ignores the negative effects of the antibiotics. Nearly all the medicines have more or less side effects. The author provides no evidence to prove the antibiotics is an exception. The author only mentions the patients' recuperation time, no informing us whether the patients in the first group had some new symptoms, such as headache, nausea, powerless and sleepy. Even if the patients did not have any new symptom, there is no guarantee that in the future they will not have any symptoms caused by the antibiotics. Perhaps, many patients have serious headache three months later. Lacking clinical experiment, the author can not assert that the antibiotics do not have negative effects, considering the safety of the patients. Additionally, given that the antibiotics do not have any side effects and help patients with severe muscle strain recover, the author's proposal that all the patients with muscle strain should take antibiotics is unacceptable. The treatments of the patients with light muscle strain are not the same with those of the patients with severe muscle strain. Perhaps, without taking antibiotics, the patients with light muscle strain will still recover quickly and will not have the danger to get second diagnosed. If this is the case, it is not reasonable to advise those patients to take antibiotics, letting alone the high price of antibiotics. In sum, the argument is not well reasoned. To strengthen it, the author must prove us that it is the antibiotics rather than other factors explain the difference between the recoveries of the two groups of patients. What is more, the author should prove the antibiotics have no side effects and all the patients with muscle strain need to take them.

windandrain2004UID: 2597690

argument4 第一篇限时成功的A,接着伸手要红包

限时成功!最好的新年礼物了,虽然写的不怎么样,不过时间还长着哪... TOPIC: ARGUMENT4 - The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site. "Of the two leading real estate firms in our town-Adams Realty and Fitch Realty-Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams." WORDS: 365         TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2009/1/25 16:57:13 In this argument, the author draws a conclusion; one should choose Adams Realty (AR) rather than Fitch Realty (FR), by a series of deductions. However, to my understanding, the suggestion is based on invalid analogies and incogent evidences. First and foremost, the author emphasizes that AR owns more real estate agents than FR possesses. But he failed to consider possibilities that more workers are by no means more work efficient. The workers in FR may share comfortable work environment, enough human touch, and surrounded by optimistic attitude which are rarely in AR. Therefore, workers in FR have more motivations to urge themselves to higher profits. Furthermore, the cost of human resource management and operation must be taken in to consideration to judge the final profits. It is highly probably that AR spent more budgets on workers' salaries and daily water rate and electric charge, which potentially influenced its profits.   Moreover, high price of home sales may not lead to high profits either. As it is known to us all, profit is produced by sell price minus cost. So besides the price of building, we have to consider another aspect -- production and operation cost. Perhaps FR has many long-term suppliers, and they built mutually beneficial relationships and cooperation together. Hence the prices of materials of FR are much lower than the ones of AR, Which play a crucial role in determining final profits. So the conclusion: AR is more powerful than FR is doubtful. Finally, the author failed to consider the change of price and requirement in real estate market. Maybe customers were poorer than they are now, or probably by the development of the town, the population explosion is emerged. Thus the needs of apartment are obviously elevated, which, result in fast sale. So, the suggestion that buying AR's building lead to quick sell of house is not as cogent as it seems to be. As is mentioned above, the conclusion is not persuasive to me. The author has to furnish more effective evidences such as the annual bulletins of two companies and more background information just like comparing the economy now to it was ten years ago to readers.

windandrain2004UID: 2597690

argument169 【FF小组】 by duyuan3377 第二次限时模考

TOPIC: ARGUMENT169 - The following appeared in a letter from a department chairperson to the president of Pierce University. "Some studies conducted by Bronston College, which is also located in a small town, reveal that both male and female professors are happier living in small towns when their spouses are also employed in the same geographic area. Therefore, in the interest of attracting the most gifted teachers and researchers to our faculty and improving the morale of our entire staff, we at Pierce University should offer employment to the spouse of each new faculty member we hire. Although we cannot expect all offers to be accepted or to be viewed as an ideal job offer, the money invested in this effort will clearly be well spent because, if their spouses have a chance of employment, new professors will be more likely to accept our offers." WORDS: 421         TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2008-12-7 16:38:55 In the argument, the arguer recommends that we at Pierce University should offer employment to the spouse of each new faculty member we hire in order to attract the most gifted teachers and researches and improve the morale of our entire staff. The argument is mainly based on some studies conducted by Bronston College. Although the recommendation sounds indeed reasonable at first sight, a series of logical flaws may undermine the argument. The threshold problem of this argument is that the studies conducted by Bronston College might not be reliable despite of the similar location.  The information about the studies is too vague. Neither does the arguer provide information concerning the process of these studies, nor does the arguer offer any evidence that these studies are reliable. Without enough evidence about the study, it is impossible to assess the validity and reliability of these studies. In addition, whether the spouse's job offer is the main factor influencing the most largely on the most gifted teachers and researches is questionable. The arguer unfairly assumes that the spouse's job offer is an attractive condition for most gifted teachers and researchers and that it is difficult for their spouses to find proper jobs. However, there is no guarantee that this is the case, nor does the arguer provide any evidence to substantiate the assumptions. It is highly possible that the most gifted teachers and researches focus more on the scientific environment and the level of their fellows instead of their spouse's job. Besides, their spouses might also be capable enough to find a better job in companies or government rather than Pierce University. Without proving the assumptions, the arguer cannot convince me to accept his/her recommendation. Last but not least, the arguer groundlessly assumes that this recommendation would be effective to improve morale of our entire staff. As the arguer mentions, the offer is only for each new faculty member we hire. If so, the old faculty member might feel it is not fair for them and their spouses. As a result, even though the method is able to attracting the most gifted teachers and researchers, it undermines the morale of our old staff. In sum, the argument lack credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide more evidence to prove the reliability of these studies and revise the recommendation in order to fulfill its function of improving the morale of our entire staff.

windandrain2004UID: 2597690

看到版上有人分享的好东西，给自己留个链接，顺便把东西给下了～
https://bbs.gter.net/thread-703506-1-1.html