ARGUE87球拍！！

hudu464UID: 2512268

总觉得逻辑上组织的不够严密。
但是又不知道到底该怎么组织。。
混乱。。
希望各位指点。。


ARGUE87

The following appeared in a memo to managers of Christine's, a chain of craft stores.
"Several major newspapers have recently run articles noting an increased interest in pottery. The number of potters in this country has risen by eighteen percent in the past five years, and pottery is particularly gaining popularity on college campuses. In order to take advantage of these trends, Christine's should immediately begin carrying a larger volume of pottery supplies. Since several of our stores have recently experienced a decrease in sales of painting supplies, all store managers should reallocate shelf space from the painting area for the display of pottery. Stores should display posters showing pottery that is designed to appeal to college-age individuals. These actions will undoubtedly increase our profits dramatically."

By concluding that proposed actions will invariably lead to a dramatic increase in Christine's profit, the manager made two unwarranted assumption which render this argument indefensible and dubious. These two assumptions though have some merits remained to be unsubstantiated, which will be discussed in turn.

Firstly, the arguer cited several studies showing an increasing interest in pottery to convince us that the craft store would have an increasing sale in pottery if certain actions were taken. The assumption made here is that an increased interest in pottery nationwide means an increasing demand of pottery. The increased number of potters in this country could not suffice the prediction of an increased demand in pottery among the craft store's customers. As it presented in the argument, pottery is particularly gaining popularity on college campuses. People on college campuses, however, could embrace college-age individuals as well as teachers and staffs. It is entirely possible that pottery is thriving in the professional world of visual art in colleges, which attracts large sums of professors in relevant discipline. Without an investigation of pottery interest among the store's customers, actions like carrying larger volume of pottery supplies would be premature.

Even assuming that an increased demand in pottery exists in their customers, we still cannot be convinced that this increased demand could be automatically translated to dramatic profits increase.
Whether replacing painting with potteries would be lucrative could not be solely determined by demands, which is also influenced by profit margin of each item. He arguer omitted profit margin comparison between painting and pottery. If each piece of painting earns significant higher profit, it could do harm rather than good to the profit by reallocating shelf space from painting area for the display of pottery. Further, even we concede that the pottery has a higher profit margin; a dramatic increase of the profit is still questionable given absence of a detailed cost-revenue analysis that embraces pottery sales in other craft stores. It would be unwise to compete with other craft stores which already have a dominant market share in pottery sales.

At last, the arguer ignored differences among stores by proposing same actions for all store managers across the nations. On the one hand, the arguer assumed that customers of every store would all apply to the nationwide increased interest trend in pottery. One the other hand, decrease in sales of painting are found in several stores could not indicate an overall decrease in all stores. Prescribing same recipe for all stores managers severely flawed this argument.