拍死人有奖ARGUMENT53

bzr2915UID: 2612029

53 Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor（气味） or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived（怀孕） in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of
melatonin（褪黑激素）—a hormone known to affect some brain functions—would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children—now teenagers—who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

提纲：
1、 即便STUDY正确结论也不对
1.1before birth 指代时间不明，STUDY中为怀孕期，此处可能是怀孕之前
1.2同理 later life 是什么概念 （中年老年？）STUDY 中只能证明到TEENAGERS
2、 STUDY中的漏洞
2.1实验样本有问题只找了奇怪的气味和声音下有反应的（可能在这种情况下都有反应）
2.2秋天有诸多因素产生不一定只是MELATONIN
2.3STUDY有断电N年之间可能发生了很多事情
STUDY的不确切同样推不出结论


In this argument the author concludes that increased levels of melatonin before birth is the main reason leads to the shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life by an imperfect study.This conclusion seems to be convincing ,at first sight,but further reflection reveals that the study neither constituting a logical statement in support nor proving a compelling evidence to make the argument sound and invulnerable.

Even though I concede that the study is strict and scientific ,the conclusion will also be troubled in two respects.First,the notion that before birth is vague and confusing.It is most likely that the time is before mothers conceive,which obviously change the notion in the study.Second,the conclusion unnecessarily extant the time that up to the teenager which proved by the study to a vague notion that a later life.It is not too much we understand the time is relating to a middle age.In short if the author can't exclude all these and other explanation,it is unfounded to reach the conclusion involved in the argument.

Furthermore,the study's process is not scientific which weakens the conclusion in the following respects. At first,the group of 25 infants is can't be the effective example for the study. It is most likely that the odor and the unusual voice are impacting on all the infants to make them distress.Because the study lack a contrast group ,it is reasonable to bring up such assumption.The second flaw that weaken the study is that the author assumes that the melatonin is the only factor that stimulated by autumn.Nevertheless,there is no guarantee that it is a necessarily case and it is possible that other hormone causes the fact.The third,even though the author could substantiate all the foregoing assumptions,his assumption that the shyness will continue to the teenager is unwarranted.While the study make a research to show that many of them are shyness when they are teenager, yet during these years lots of incidence may happen which is the real reason to stimulated these children to be shyness.In conclusion,under any scenario,adopting the study's proposal  might harm rather than benefit.

TO sum up,the conclusion lack credibility because the study cited by the argument does not lent a strong support to the analyse.Thus , if the author does not consider the factors that discussed above such like a precisely describe to the conclusion and the correctness of the study ,it is reasonable to cast considerable doubts on this argument.

jinziqiUID: 2387034

"拍死人有奖"   呃。。  LZ...  这个让我浮想联翩  貌似有歧义...

bzr2915UID: 2612029

2# jinziqi 不是把“死”作形容词了吧......:L