Argument226 诚恳求拍！

542424UID: 2635222

226.The following appeared as part of a memo from the manager of an
automobile manufacturing company.

"Because the demand for our automobiles is expected to increase
dramatically, we need to open a new manufacturing plant as soon as
possible in order to continue to thrive. Our marketing projections
indicate that 80 million people will want to buy our automobiles, yet our
existing plant can only produce 40 million automobiles. The new plant can
be opened on a part-time basis, with workers from our existing site
rotating responsibilities, until an operational staff can be trained. A
major airplane manufacturer was extremely successful using this part-time
rotating strategy when it opened its new plant five years ago."


In this argument, the arguer advocates that the company should set up a new factory and use the way of rotating responsibilities which learnt from airplane factory, to produce enough automobiles for the increased demand. Although it may seem reasonable at first glance, it is in fact unconvincing. There are many reasons as to why many factors in the argument are false and senseless.

First of all, the arguer assumes that they can judge the trend from the survey. However, the survey does not provide enough data to confirm the conclusion. We must take into account the characters of the respondents, if the most of people are students or other young who cannot afford the automobiles, we can hardly sell the commodities we expected. Likewise, the arguer only says there are 80 million people who want to buy our automobiles, but does not provide the percentage of the total population. There must have possibility that the total number is far more than the 80 million and the number of people who want to buy the commodities is too small to convince it. In addition, perhaps the respondents answered that they enjoy buying automobiles hastily by only having a look the appearance from the adverting we gave, and they may think that the commodities are not worth to spend money after they considered it carefully. On the other hand, there have nothing evidence indicates that we are necessary to build a new plant, perhaps the old plan can produce enough commodities to supply the demand. The arguer’s reasoning is definitely flawed unless they can convince one that these and other possible are unlikely.

Secondly, the arguer assumes that the asking workers to rotate the work until an operational staff can be trained. Nevertheless, this plan with make the worker feeling tired and would decrease the efficiency of production. The arguer fails to ensure that the works in the factory have enough ability to work by this way, maybe they can hardly adapt the new reform. Only if accounting for and ruling out these and other alternative explanations, the arguer can sustain the proposal.

The last but not least, the arguer does not say there have some same characters between the airplane manufacturer and automobiles manufacturer. As we all know, the different kinds of factory have dissimilar production process, management and raw materials, it is presumptuous to compare them together. For example, the workers who are working in the airplane factory have less workload than the worker in others factory and they can rotate to work easily. Besides, the phenomena happened in five years ago, lots of possibilities would undoubtedly cause the trend to fluctuate or even reverse, we cannot make sure that the good situation of market will keep up in future. Therefore, we cannot judge that the automobile will make the same success by this method.

In conclusion, the arguer’s argument mentioned above is not based on solid evidence or sound reasoning, neither of which is dispensable for a conclusive argument. In order to draw a better conclusion, the arguer must provide more information of the attitude of the customers, to judge if they really want to buy and afford our automobiles. And then, we should make a better understanding of the volume of production and ability of workers, to balance these two factors, and to guarantee the maximum efficiency.