@@茶叶蛋炒饭@@ 第十五次作业 ARGUMENT65 请组员跟帖

mikestoneUID: 2734495

RT

家家☆yoonjaeUID: 2646910

标题格式不对哦。。。argument的拼写要完整哦 = = 已改，下次请LZ注意，乖，么头~

mikestoneUID: 2734495

In the argument, the speaker recommends that they should discontinue stock many of their varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses in order to improve profits. Experience of last year and a survey of Cheeses of the World magazine (CW) are included. However, they are unconvincing, and not sufficient his conclusion.

In the first place, the arguer says that the five best-selling chesses at their newest store were all domestic cheeses, last year. However, information about the sales of import cheese is not provided. Maybe, they also sell a lot of import cheeses, and the profit made by import cheese is more than the same volume of domestic cheeses. If that is true, the company should continue to store import cheese.

In the second place, the speaker draws the conclusion that the population of people who prefer domestic cheeses is increasing based on the survey of CW towards their subscribers. However, details of the surveys are not given. For example, we don't know the number of their subscribers, and the number of respondents. Maybe, there are only 1000 subscribers are interviewed, and only 100 of them respond to the survey. It is also possible that all the respondents can just buy domestic in their local stores. So, these subscribers cannot represent all civilians.

In the third place, demand of imported and domestic cheeses is also unknown. Maybe, the sales of the domestic cheeses will not continue in the next year. And the demand of imported cheeses increases significantly. It is also possible that their competitors also store many domestic cheeses, and the total volume of cheeses in their stores may far more than the demand of people. The cheeses may be hard to be sold out the next year.

Finally, even things discussed above don't happen, the arguer cannot make sure that they will improve their profits. Profit is the function of revenue and cost. Maybe, their competitors low the price the domestic which causes the loss of their frequent-consumers. At last, their domestic cheeses' revenues maybe lower than costs. So, the arguer cannot guarantee that their profits will be increased.

In sum, the recommendation is not convincing. To make it more persuasive, the speaker should conduct more surveys about the consumers and provide more information discussed above.


改yeshen
In this memo, the president asserts that the best way to improve profits in all stores is to stop stocking many kinds of important （imported） cheese and pay attention to domestic cheese. To support the assertion, the speaker claims that the five best-selling cheeses at the newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses. （觉得这里要么就都写上，包括杂志的调查什么的，要么就别提，提了一半很别扭的。） However, after a careful examination of the evidence and of the speaker's line of reasoning, I find the argument unconvincing for several reasons.

At the beginning, the author fails to provide as much as possible （enough or sufficient） information to support that more and more people will like domestic cheese which the company should primarily focus on in the future. Firstly, the five best-selling cheeses at the newest store were all domestic cannot represent they will be the best-selling at all the stores around the nation. Perhaps, the newest store locates at some place in Wisconsin where the local citizens prefer the kinds of domestic cheese. While in other stores, it is possible that the best-seller cheese is imported cheese. Secondly, the situation of this year may be not the same as last year. Maybe in this year, the best-selling cheese is a kind of imported cheese. Thirdly, a recent survey by Cheese of the World magazine does not provide sufficient information to make sure it is reliable. In evaluating the evidence of the survey, one must consider how the survey is conducted, and how broad it is. If the research is conducted in the sample consisted by who buy the magazine, rather in the sample consisted by the people liking cheeses all around the nation. Here we assume that a person who buys the magazine likes cheese. So the latter sample is much broader than the former. If the magazine does a survey in the former sample, then the result will less convincing. And if the investigation was conducted in a special group with people refusing imported goods and only supporting domestic good, then the conclusion is also doubtful. Hence, there is not enough evidence to suggest that more and more people like domestic cheese, and the company should concentrate primarily on the kinds of cheese. （这里你是不是用了较多的模板啊？）

In addition, stopping stocking many varieties of imported cheese may be not the best way to improve profits. Although discontinuing stocking would save the expenses, paying attention on domestic cheese may need more investment, for instance, increasing fees on buying more kinds of cheese and advertisements, which perhaps exceeds the saving expenses. If the profits cannot rise, how can we say it is the best way to improve profits? To increase profits, on the one hand, the company should control the cost, which is affected by many factors, such as the salary paid to employees, the expenses on using inventory, water, electricity, and official facilities. So limiting inventory may not lead to the reduction of expenses. On the other hand, the company should improve the selling. Only if the company takes measurements in the consideration of the both sides, then the profits perhaps will be increased.

这段基本上没有什么问题。

Based on what have illustrated above, the argument is not persuasive as it sounds. To make the argument convincing, the author should provide more specific and comprehensive information to demonstrate it.

文章总体来说挺不错的，我自己又学了不少表达。

cycy881125UID: 2625420

written by AlanC


In this argument, the author has concluded that increasing the number of the stock of domestic cheeses is the best approach to improve profits. Meanwhile, the arguer has listed two reasons to support his inference. The one has shown that five best-selling cheeses from Wisconsin are domestic cheeses. The other from the survey by Cheeses of the World magazine has indicated that subscribers have more trends to the domestic Cheeses. However, when do a systemic analysis, it is how groundless that this argument is.



In the first place, the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. Through a survey among the newest store, the author concludes to improve stock of domestic cheeses is the best way to profit. It is seemingly a proper inference. Nevertheless, the arguer fails to supply enough data to support this generalization. For an appropriate generalization, the survey should be testified to be the most typical, and it must represent characteristics of the generalization most properly. Thus, in this survey, the newest stores might not represent the characteristics of all of the stores. It is likely that just in these newest stores, the domestic cheeses are sold well, while in the others, imported cheeses have always been the best-seller, hence the newest ones are not typical enough. Only if the newest ones have sufficient proper evidence to prove they could represent all stores.


In the second place, the arguer fails to consider several other relevant factors that may affect this conclusion. In the author’s opinion, the subscribers’ trend could decide the most people’s trend to the cheeses; ultimately he deduces the necessary of stocking the domestic cheeses to improve profits. However, the arguer fails to provide complete information to support that subscribers’ characteristics could stand for that of the masses. And it is also a improper generalization. It is likely that the subscribers of this magazine have an addiction of eating domestic cheeses, then their trends to domestic cheeses is for the purpose of supporting the industry of domestic, and they are extremely patriots, hence in these particular circumstances, their trends could not represent the masses’ trends. Therefore, when subscriber could be the most classic representation of the masses, the inference could be concluded.


In conclusion, the conclusion is short of reliability because the evidences mentioned in the argument could not give a strong support to the inference. In order improve the credibility, on the one hand, the arguer should prove the newest stores could represent all the stores. On the other hand, he must also list the evidence to testify the representativeness of subscribers. Then the conclusion could be convincing.

imlifewillingUID: 2706999

by 懒蚂蚁
15:47
The president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States suggests that the company should discontinue stocking many of its varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses in order to improve profits in all of its stores since the company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory. However, this recommendation is built upon two tenuous assumptions that I would discuss in the following passage. What's more, the president ignores other situations that may affect the cost of the company.

In the first place, the president claims that people in America like the domestic cheeses based on the fact that the company's best-selling cheeses last year at its newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses form Wisconsin. However, this fact is unconvincing. First, the statistic only concentrates on the newest store . It is not sufficient to represent the total situation of all the stores in the United Stated. Perhaps this newest store is rightly located in Wisconsin where the people like the local cheese more than others. Second, this fact focus only on last year's situation which is not persuasive to expect that people would still like the domestic cheddar cheeses in the future. Third, even though people like the domestic cheddar cheeses form Wisconsin, it does not mean that people also like other products of domestic cheeses. All in all, this fact is not adequate to prove that people all around the nation like the domestic cheeses more than the imported cheeses.

In the second place,the survey by Cheeses of the World, which is also one of the foundations of the president's conclusion, is also incredible. On the one hand, we are not clear about the formation of its subscribers. Maybe they are the one who like the domestic cheeses more than the imported ones. On the other hand, we do not know coverage situation of this magazine. Perhaps those areas are much easier to get the domestic cheeses so that the residents are already accustomed to them. So without these conditions which might affect the result of the survey being eliminated and excluded, the president's advice is unpersuasive.

In the third place, even though we admit that people prefer the domestic cheeses rather that the imported ones, the president cannot make out the conclusion that the company will improve its benefits through taking the advice into action. Though we can decrease the storage of imported cheeses, it does not means that we can reduce expenses by limiting inventory since we have to store the domestic cheeses. What's more, differences between the total costs of these two different cheeses are not considered. Perhaps the cost of the domestic cheeses is high than the cost of the imported ones, which cannot result in increasing profits. In addition the service of the company must be considered for the reason that customers may change to other companies because of its bad service which will eventually result in decreasing of profits. Therefore the increasing of profits is so complex that only considering this aspect is not sufficient to make out the conclusion.

To sum up, the proposal of the president is incredible. In order to persuade the company to take his advice, the president needs to make a thorough survey about the comsumers' preference.What's more, other conditions that might affect the profits of the company also need to be excluded.
16:32

修改Alanc
In this argument, the author has concluded that increasing the number of the stock of domestic cheeses is the best approach to improve profits. Meanwhile, the arguer has listed two reasons to support his inference. The one has shown that five best-selling cheeses from Wisconsin are domestic cheeses. The other from the survey by Cheeses of the World magazine has indicated that subscribers have more trends to the domestic Cheeses. However, when do a systemic analysis, it is how groundless that this argument is(这句话的意思看不懂).
开头能说明题目的逻辑关系。
In the first place, the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. Through a survey among the newest store, the author concludes to improve stock of domestic cheeses is the best way to profit（感觉结构上有点问题。）. It is seemingly a proper inference. Nevertheless, the arguer fails to supply enough data to support this generalization. For an appropriate generalization, the survey should be testified to be the most typical, and it must represent characteristics of the generalization most properly（这段放在结尾总结是不是好些呢？）. Thus, in this survey, the newest stores might not represent the characteristics of all of the stores. It is likely that just in these newest stores, the domestic cheeses are sold well, while in the others, imported cheeses have always been the best-seller, hence the newest ones are not typical enough. Only if the newest ones have sufficient proper evidence to prove they could represent all stores.
说明调查不能代表所有的店铺销售情况。
In the second place, the arguer fails to consider several other relevant factors that may affect this conclusion. In the author’s opinion, the subscribers’ trend could decide the most people’s trend to the cheeses; ultimately he deduces the necessary of stocking the domestic cheeses to improve profits. However, the arguer fails to provide complete information to support that subscribers’ characteristics could stand for that of the masses. And it is also a improper generalization. It is likely that the subscribers of this magazine have an addiction of eating domestic cheeses, then their trends to domestic cheeses is for the purpose of supporting the industry of domestic, and they are extremely patriots, hence in these particular circumstances, their trends could not represent the masses’ trends. Therefore, when subscriber could be the most classic representation of the masses, the inference could be concluded.
说明调查不可信。但是感觉你上一段和这一段写的有点像issue啊。论证太多了。还是多说几个他因，直接反驳比较有力。
In conclusion, the conclusion is short of reliability because the evidences mentioned in the argument could not give a strong support to the inference. In order to improve the credibility, on the one hand, the arguer should prove the newest stores could represent all the stores. On the other hand, he must also list the evidence to testify the representativeness of subscribers. Then the conclusion could be convincing.

攻击点找到了，但是感觉没有展开，多找几个可能的情况。

yeshen2010UID: 2744103

A65:

In this memo, the president asserts that the best way to improve profits in all stores is to stop stocking many kinds of important cheese and pay attention to domestic cheese. To support the assertion, the speaker claims that the five best-selling cheeses at the newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses. However, after a careful examination of the evidence and of the speaker's line of reasoning, I find the argument unconvincing for several reasons.

At the beginning, the author fails to provide as much as possible information to support that more and more people will like domestic cheese which the company should primarily focus on in the future. Firstly, the five best-selling cheeses at the newest store were all domestic cannot represent they will be the best-selling at all the stores around the nation. Perhaps, the newest store locates at some place in Wisconsin where the local citizens prefer the kinds of domestic cheese. While in other stores, it is possible that the best-seller cheese is imported cheese. Secondly, the situation of this year may be not the same as last year. Maybe in this year, the best-selling cheese is a kind of imported cheese. Thirdly, a recent survey by Cheese of the World magazine does not provide sufficient information to make sure it is reliable. In evaluating the evidence of the survey, one must consider how the survey is conduct, and how broad it is. If the research is conducted in the sample consisted by who buy the magazine, rather in the sample consisted by the people liking cheeses all around the nation. Here we assume that a person who buys the magazine likes cheese. So the latter sample is much broader than the former. If the magazine does a survey in the former sample, then the result will less convincing. And if the investigation was conducted in a special group with people refusing imported goods and only supporting domestic good, then the conclusion is also doubtful. Hence, there is no enough evidence to suggest that more and more people like domestic cheese, and the company should concentrate primarily on the kinds of cheese.

In addition, stopping stocking many varieties of imported cheese may be not the best way to improve profits. Although discontinuing stocking would save the expenses, paying attention on domestic cheese may need more investment, for instance, increasing fees on buying more kinds of cheese and advertisements, which perhaps exceeds the saving expenses. If the profits cannot rise, how can we say it is the best way to improve profits? To increase profits, on the one hand, the company should control the cost, which is affected by many factors, such as the salary paid to employees, the expenses on using inventory, water, electricity, and official facilities. So limiting inventory may not lead to the reduction of expenses. On the other hand, the company should improve the selling. Only if the company takes measurements in the consideration of the both sides, then the profits perhaps will be increased.

Based on what have illustrated above, the argument is not persuasive as it sounds. To make the argument convincing, the author should provide more specific and comprehensive information to demonstrate it.

改 蚂蚁的A65 by
yeshen

The president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States suggests that the company should discontinue stocking many of its varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses in order to improve profits in all of its stores since the company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory. However, this recommendation is built upon two tenuous assumptions that I would discuss in the following passage. What's more, the president ignores other situations that may affect the cost of the company.

In the first place, the president claims that people in America like the domestic cheeses based on the fact that the company's best-selling cheeses last year at its newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses form Wisconsin. However, this fact is unconvincing. First, the statistic only concentrates on the newest store. It is not sufficient to represent the total situation of all the stores in the United Stated. Perhaps this newest store is rightly located in Wisconsin where the people like the local cheese more than others. Second, this fact focus only on last year's situation which is not persuasive to expect that people would still like the domestic cheddar cheeses in the future. Third, even though people like the domestic cheddar cheeses form Wisconsin, it does not mean that people also like other products of domestic cheeses. All in all, this fact is not adequate to prove that people all around the nation like the domestic cheeses more than the imported cheeses.
攻击以偏概全。全美人民喜欢国产奶酪基于这样的事实：在最新店最受欢迎的五种奶酪全是来自威斯康辛的国产奶酪。

In the second place, the survey by Cheeses of the World, which is also one of the foundations of the president's conclusion, is also incredible. On the one hand, we are not clear about the formation of its subscribers. Maybe they are the one who like the domestic cheeses more than the imported ones. On the other hand, we do not know coverage situation of this magazine. Perhaps those areas are much easier to get the domestic cheeses so that the residents are already accustomed to them. So without these conditions which might affect the result of the survey being eliminated and excluded, the president's advice is unpersuasive.
攻击：这个杂志做的调查不可信。

In the third place, even though we admit that people prefer the domestic cheeses rather that the imported ones, the president cannot make out the conclusion that the company will improve its benefits through taking the advice into action. Though we can decrease the storage of imported cheeses, it does not mean that we can reduce expenses by limiting inventory since we have to store the domestic cheeses. What's more, differences between the total costs of these two different cheeses are not considered. Perhaps the cost of the domestic cheeses is high than the cost of the imported ones, which cannot result in increasing profits. In addition the service of the company must be considered for the reason that customers may change to other companies because of its bad service which will eventually result in decreasing of profits. Therefore the increasing of profits is so complex that only considering this aspect is not sufficient to make out the conclusion.
攻击：不能下结论说可以提高公司利润。

To sum up, the proposal of the president is incredible. In order to persuade the company to take his advice, the president needs to make a thorough survey about the consumers' preference. What's more, other conditions that might affect the profits of the company also need to be excluded.

总结：主要攻击点都谈到了，也比较到位。