ARGUMENT147，大家帮忙看看

leehomshoneyUID: 2647264

第一次写，写得很鄙陋，3-1就考了，麻烦大家帮忙改改，给些建议！！！！


TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."



In this editorial, the author concludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To support his conclusion, the author points out that video game players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics which Whirlwind has just introduced. In addition, he indicates that people at 10 to 25 would be mostly likely to play such games. At first glance, the argument appears to be somewhat convincing, but further reflection reveals that it omits some substantial concerns that should be addressed in the argument.

A threshold problem of this argument is the validity of the survey. The arguer fails to provide who conducted the survey and how it was conducted, which has undermined the credibility of the survey. Also the statistics are not provided, which renders the result of the survey doubtful. Unless the survey provides a substantial result, the author couldn't confidently make this conclusion. In addition, even assuming the survey is somewhat convincing, no evidence reveals that players would buy games that provide lifelike graphics. As such games require the most up-to-date computers, which means a considerable amount of money will be paid beforing playing them. Actually, most players would hesitate to make such a decision.

Another problem is the author falsely depends on gratuitous assumption that  people at 10 to 25 years old would mostly incline to play video games. However, no evidence is stated in the argument to support this assuption. For instance, they would prefer to read books or do sports rather than to play video games to spend their leisure time. Even assuming that they are interested in playing video games,  it doesn't necessarily lead to their buying the video games, perhaps they don't have the time to play the games , or perhaps they can't afford to buy. Therefore,the conclusion is unwarranted without ruling out such possibilities.

Last but not least, the author commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. It is highly possible that other factors such as the economic condition and the competition with other companies would also affect the sales of the video games. For example, if the economy encounters recession, it is quite possible that fewer people would buy their games. In addition, if their rivals could provide more attractive similar products, then the increase would be highly  dubious.

To sum up, the author fails to substantiate his claim that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the author maintains. To make the argument more convincing, the author would have to provide more information that  people at 10 to 25 would be likely to buy video games. Additionally, he or she would have to demonstrate that other factors such like the economic condition would be suitable for introducing their products. Therefore, if the argument had included the gicen factors discussed above, it would have been more thorough and logically acceptable.

zhouxfdUID: 2522338

thorough and logically acceptable这句我一直觉得不太对，thorough是不是应该是thoroughly?难道韦小宝没有发现这个错误？还是我错了？