argument209 球拍

thanatos111UID: 2695845

题目：ARGUMENT209 - The following recommendation was made by the Human Resources Manager to the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company.

"In the last three quarters of this year, under the leadership of our president, Pat Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably. Thus, we should ask for her resignation in return for a generous severance package. In Pat's place, we should appoint Rosa Winnings. Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry, a company whose profits have increased dramatically over the past several years. Although we will have to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving, it will be well worth it because we can soon expect our profits to increase considerably."

提纲：
1：不能将FTC利润下降都归因于PS，可能是：1，该公司盈利是seasonal的；2上一任老板的责任     而PS可能反过来为阻止利润下降做出贡献
2：也不能将SJ利润提升都归因于RW，1，RW目前忙于管理SJ，不一定能将精力投入到管理FTC；2，RW上任时间可能不长，无法证明有足够能力；3盈利可能是前任的功劳。
3：两个公司不同，不能说RW的策略一定适合FTC的，他也不一定有管理FTC这类toy company的经验。

This recommendation comes to a conclusion that the directors of the Fancy Toy Company(FTC) should replace Pat Salvo(PS) with Rosa Winnings(RW), the currently president of Starlight Jewelry(SJ), so as to make a profit instead of suffering a loss. However, several vital logical problems reveal the unconvincing aspects of this memo.

To start with, the author's recommendation relies partly on the assumption that the leadership of PS was the main cause of FTC's decline in profits. However, the author neglects the possibilities that the FTC's business may be seasonal and that the decline of profits may rises from the previous leader's ill-conceived managements. Perhaps the period for profiting may be the left quarter of the year and PS just leaded her company during a dead season, which can conceal her great contribute to prevent a further decline of profits while the earnings have actually diminished. With out taking into account such possibilities, the author can not hastily draw to a conclusion that PS has to be responsible for the declining profits and thus replacing PS will therefore enhance them.
Similarly, the recommendation also assumes that RW will be the most suitable one to lead the FTC instead of PS. But in effect, the manager provides no evidence to fortify this assumption. Since RW is currently the president of another company, SJ, he may be immersed in the leading of SJ, leaving no time for the enhancing of profits in the FTC. And still, RW may not act as the manager for a relatively long time to insure that he has the ability to lead a company well and the positive income may rises from the ex-manager's strategy. Furthermore, perhaps it is the decline in the prices of precious raw materials or the increasing need in the market that lead to an increasing income. Neglecting all these situations, the manager cannot defend the conclusion that RW is the suitable one to lead the FTC.
Finally, even if all assumptions above are reasonable, this recommendation fatally rests on the postulate that the two types of businesses are sufficiently similar and RW's expertise in her company will also fit in this one.
RW might nevertheless provide poor ability leading a toy company instead of his SJ, for he may not have any experience in managing such kind of company.
In sum, this argument is not compelling for all these logical mistakes. To enhance it, the manager must provide more evidence to demonstrate that PS, ruling out other aspects beyond her own control, is the main reason for the company's declining profit. Simultaneously, he should also convince that RW has the ability to manage the company well and his managing strategies can transfer to the toy company. In order to further insure the conclusion, the manager also needs to evaluate the pros and cons of the two presidents and gain more information of them during their serving time as presidents.




写的时间蛮长的，还要继续努力啊，望有人狠拍，感谢