Argument47（限时） 有拍必回！。。by pluka

plukaUID: 2721764

TOPIC: ARGUMENT47 - Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.
WORDS: 418          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2010-2-19 10:19:32
============改了错字——错得太多了，泪，求教，数语亦可，有拍必回！=====

Relying on limited records and choosing within only two explanations, the author concludes that the 

earth suffered from plummeting temperature, which was caused by the eruption of the volcano. He 

suffers from several flaws as discussed below.

Primarily, the historic records upon which the author posits his following deduction whatsoever are 

too limited to substantiate any deduction for the situation of the earth as a whole. As onlyan onlythe 

only small fraction of records survive, highly possibly, this information accounted for the local situation 

only. Without further study, the author cannot generalize the result for the whole continent. 

Moreover, no record about other continents apart from Asia and Europe has been found. Considering 

various factors, including the different geography, ocean influence, longitude and altitude, mere 

information on two continents falls short of reflect the situation of the globe. 

Even if the temperature indeed plummeted, no evidence is given to prove that it is due to the 

blocking sunlight. The author offers little description on the degree of coldness. Perhaps, it was 

simply an especially freezing winter under the influence of the cold spell. Without being informed of 

the actual situation, the author cannot ascribe hastily the drop in temperature to limited sunlight. 

Other factors, such as the ocean correlation, change in weatherwhether or terrain, may give rise to 

similar decline to the same extent. 

Even assuming that the sun was blocked, volcanic eruption might still fail to be regarded as the sole 

explanation. The lack of record on bright flash of light may merely due to the shortage of historic 

information, and perhaps such record has been lost during the long period of time. The loud boom is 

far from sufficient to support the hypothesis of volcanic eruption. Landslides or earthquakes cause 

similar boom as well.Repeated Word Without ruling out such alternative explanation, the author 

cannot conclude directly the only a boom is tantamount to volcanic eruption. Further, there exist 

other possibilities that lead to accumulated clouds and dusts as well as blocking sunlight. For example, 

changes in weather, like sand storm, may give rise to dusty sky and cloud the sun as well.Repeated 

WordMore... Hence, the author fails to verify the conclusion that volcanic eruption dominated, or 

even contributed to, the drop in temperature.

Positing the deduction on scant information and limiting his choice within two explanations, the 

author ignores various factors and possibilities in reaching his conclusion. To evaluate or amend the 

contention, he may as well learn more about the actual situation of the earth at that time and 

capture a comprehensive picture.