Argue第一篇：球拍~谢谢

rachelwang712UID: 2757860

A1
The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.

"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."
_____________________________________________________

提纲：
1只有一个store，而小孩子要参加这个项目，所以销售多
2health club五年前和现在的对比可能基于人口基数
3会员多，可能冲动消费
4小孩子被要求参加不代表他们喜欢参加，可能在长大离开后并不喜欢运动。

The memo seems logically sound. But a careful review demonstrates how weak it is. To be more precise, the vice president take for granted that more enrollment in health club, a desirable sale in exercising facilities and a compulsory fitness program guarantee a population passionate about health-leading lifestyle, while these evidences are nevertheless less supportive for his conclusion as he believes.

A steadily high selling number of running shoes and exercising clothing does not necessarily mean that people love exercise. As mentioned later, schoolchildren at that region are required to take a fitness program and their parents can be the mainstream buyers accountable for the significant sales of sporting facilities as they need to prepare their children for the program. Also, each year witnesses a number of first-year students, which will lead to, undoubtedly, a consistently large membership in that program and thus an all-time high sales of running shoes and exercising equipment. Another possible reason is that Plainsville has few merchants, say 2, compared with its great population, say 1 million. No wonder the merchants can profit well here.

Although the vice president may argue that the membership in the program fosters a generation with remarkable passion for sports, this point can be undermined to a great extent by the notion that since the "fitness for life" program is what has to be taken not what children choose to take, there can be a reasonable chance that they don't like it at all. If this is true,the vice president will be disappointed with his expectation of a sport-loving generation being failed.

Another proof the memo illustrates is the increasing number of enrollment in health club and its training courses. However, the argument is weak in that it doesn't take into consideration the total population in that region. For instance, what if the membership in the club doubles from 20 to 40 while the population tripples from 0.3 million to 1 million. It is obvious that the so-called hiking enrollment is insignificant compared to the growth in population. Moreover, not rarely seen are the cases where people jump to join in a health club owing to some attractive, alluring ads but they soon get bored and simply don't go there any longer. How can these members of the health club be expected to be crazy about sports? Therefore, neither expansion of membership nor a full aerobics course serve to prove the vice president's statement well.

To sum up, despite cogency the memo first appears, a further inspection reveals the shaky ground it is based on. More surveys are needed, which surely don't limit to a rough analysis focusing merely on the statistics, to display people's real attitude towards health and fitness in Plainsville if the company plans to set up its business there.