[phoenix]argument38（吃鱼9号，第一次写望很拍）

NEU公孙轩辕UID: 2697609

ARG 38
An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
我们注意到一种保证可以显著减少学校和工作岗位的缺席的革新疗法。一项研究报告说在附近的East Meria，鱼的消费量很高，那里的人们每年因为治感冒而去看医生的次数只有一或两次。显然，吃较大量的鱼可以预防感冒。由于感冒是学校和单位缺席的最常见原因，我们建议每天服用Ichthaid，一种从鱼油中提炼的营养物质，作为预防感冒和减少缺席率的有效措施。
提纲：1 去看医生人少并不能说明患感冒的人就少（感冒可以自愈）
        2 就是患感冒的人真的少，仅仅从吃鱼多也推不出就一定是鱼可以预防感冒（锻炼多，饮食合理）
        3 即使鱼真的可以预防感冒，那么鱼油的效果是否和吃鱼的效果一样呢？（加工过程中那个有效物质的破坏，既是不破坏，有效物质也可能会因为其他原因失效）
        4 既是效果一样，那么员工感冒的请假理由是否真的可信？（私事）


In this argument, the author concludes that daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, can prevent colds and lower absenteeism. To substantiate it, the author cites the study which assumes eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds in East Meria, and synthesizes the fact that colds are the most frequent reasons given for absenteeism. Plausibly as it may seem, I`m afraid the argument cannot bear further examination since there are several deficiencies in it.

To begin with, the study that low frequency of people’s visiting the doctor for colds does not necessarily mean the actual incidence of catching colds is also the same level. It’s highly possible that the local people who catch colds prefer not to visit the doctor, but take relative medicine to cure colds by themselves because of limited time and rapid tempo of life. Accordingly, absence of more specific and accurate statistics, the study can hardly convince me of the local incidence of colds is really of a low level. Granted that the low incidence of colds is true, we cannot confirm the assumption that eating substantial amount of fish can prevent colds merely on the basic of the local high fish consumption. Obviously, the argument fails to exclude other possible factors which could also bring about the low incidence of colds. Perhaps majority of the local people take exercises regularly and thus develop a strong immune system against colds. Or, perhaps their health eating habits and diets, rather than only fish, can also help improve their ability to defend colds.

Additionally, even if eating substantial amount of fish can really prevent colds, the argument doesn`t provide sufficient evidence to substantiate the Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, can also work as well as the active ingredient in fish which actually help prevent colds. Accordingly, we are in absence of evidence to confirm the assumption, and thus have good reason to imagine other possible factors that probably result in the ineffectiveness of the Ichthaid. It’s likely that the active ingredient is changed or even destroyed during the manufacture process.

Furthermore, can the Ichthaid, even assuming it does works well in preventing colds, really lower absenteeism? It`s high likely that catching a cold is just an excuse for absenteeism. Accordingly, if this is true to some extent, daily use of Ichthaid obviously cannot promise to lower absenteeism.

In sum, as the analysis and discussion above, the argument is far from persuasive as it seems. To substantiate it, the author has to provide more specific and all-sided information and evidence to demonstrate that daily use of Ichthaid can really prevent colds and lower absenteeism.