PHOENIX小组组员4ARGUMENT53

86145787UID: 2672301

The argument concludes based on two unreliable correlations, one of which is between the mild distress to unfamiliar stimuli and the shyness during infancy, and another is between the shyness during infancy and the increase production of melatonin-a hormone, that increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life. To back these conclusions, author point out that these infants-a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress to unfamiliar stimuli-were are more likely than other infants to have been conceived at the time when their mothers' production of melatonin increase, and that more than half of these children identified themselves as shy in a follow-up study this year. However, none of these two evidences can be used to support his conclusion validly.

First of all, the author concludes the group of 25 infants was more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn because of increase production of melatonin without persuasive evidences. However, maybe there is a tradition that people like to conceive in early autumn. If this is the case, the conclusion and the correlation between melatonin and pregnancy will not be convincing.

Secondly, at the end of the argument, the author concludes that increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy. This conclusion based on the recent study which shows that more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. However, the author does not give us evidence to prove that the shyness during teenage is results of the shyness during infancy. Because it will be more reasonable to assume the shyness during teenage is the consequence of their growing setting. Even if we accept that the conclusion of study author based. Nevertheless author also fails to build the correlation between the signs of mild distress to unfamiliar stimuli and the shyness during infancy, because the sign of mild distress to unfamiliar seems relatively prevalent and reasonable for infants.

Finally, author concludes that the shyness continues into later life without evidence. Because it will be very reasonable to assume that the shyness during teenage is the result of one's grown-up surroundings, such as family surrounding and school. If this is the case, the conclusion would be overturned.

In sum, the author will make the argument more persuasive by providing more evidences. First, to convince me, more statistic evidences of infants who have been conceived in early autumn should be provided because of increase production of melatonin. Then, show us the evidence of the shyness of the infants later because of the shyness during infancy, and build the correlation between the mild distress and shyness during infancy. Finally, the evidence of shyness during infancy will continue into later time.